Coronavirus

[Sue Denim]

 This a graph from ONS data for deaths in hospices in England and Wales this year.

People in hospices are terminally ill, they go there to die.

Yet, even there, a large number of deaths are being recorded as covid deaths.

And you can clearly see that, as deaths from covid go up or down, so too do non covid deaths in the opposite direction. 

Edited December 16, 2020 by Sue Denim

[bazil85]

30 minutes ago, antrin said:

That's what the Hitler Youth Group members used to say...   

 

If not wanting to work Christmas day, spending it with my family and being happy to give & receive presents results in the uprising of a far right, fascist political movement I'll be pretty surprised. 😅

[bazil85]

34 minutes ago, Yflab said:

Baz.........Zzzzzzzzz

 

Not quoting me won't stop me responding.

I made a fair point, you ended up raging and argumentative. Chill it's nearly Christmas 👍

[Sue Denim]

16 minutes ago, Slarti said:

I never "jumped into the argument".  There is my first post below and also your response.  You had said Faraway Saint had not demonstrated where the flaw was, I was giving a scenario that demonstrated the flaw.  After I posted you said I hadn't explained why all they people/organisations were wrong, when my post had nothing to do with anyone being "wrong", it was only demonstrating the flaw in the method they use.  Maybe it is the most accurate method, maybe it is impossible to get it any more accurate, maybe it is the method with the least number of flaws - none of that changes the fact that the method is flawed.  Simply, "most accurate" does not necessarily mean "accurate" or even "accurate enough".

 

They were not "fantasies", they were examples/scenarios to show the type of situation that would/could result in an error in the count.

 

Anyway, as I said in my last reply to you, 

 

 

 

The most accurate method to look at the impact of an epidemic is to look at excess deaths.

Farr’s Law

We had an epidemic in the Spring as can be seen by the huge number of excess deaths.

We now have a small rise in excess deaths. The question now is, how many of these are down to covid and how many are down to collateral deaths caused by the restrictions in healthcare?

[Sue Denim]

5 hours ago, Bud the Baker said:

I have said why I think it's bogus, more times than I care to remember but I'll say it again, the GPs, ONS and experts who have commented on the issue have no axe to grind and I agree with what their conclusions. In contrast the government's at Westminster and to a (slightly) lesser extent Holyrood have plenty reasons  to obscure the correct death toll due to Covid.

 

On the contrary, it’s in the interests of the governments to inflate the death tolls due to covid in order to justify their reaction since the Spring.

Someone goes into hospital with severe respiratory illness and are put in ICU.

They test negative. They are repeatedly tested and then test positive the day before they die. 
 

Down it goes as a covid death.

A care home worker gets tested regularly. They test positive. They die in a car crash 2 weeks later. As they tested positive within 28 days then it’s a covid death.

The gold standard is excess deaths. The current level of excess deaths do not support the assertion that there is a deadly virus in the loose. On the contrary, they support the assertion that people are dying as a result of lockdown restrictions.

The epidemic was over in May and lockdown came way too late to have made any difference. Indeed, the experience of South America and the southern US states, where they locked down at the same time but didn’t peak until months later, show that lockdowns probably don’t work anyway. 

[Sue Denim]

944 covid deaths in hospices in England and Wales this year with a corresponding drop in non covid deaths.

If that is happening in hospices then it will be happening massively in hospitals and care homes.

60 covid deaths in Scottish care homes last week yet excess deaths were -37.

It’s entirely in the best interests of the U.K. and Scottish governments to inflate the covid death numbers as high as they can. Otherwise, a huge % of the excess deaths would need to be labelled as collateral deaths.

And finding out that your reaction to the pandemic killed more people than the virus itself isn’t something that any government can contemplate. 
 

@Bud the Baker

Edited December 16, 2020 by Sue Denim

[Sue Denim]

19 hours ago, Yflab said:

I’ve indicated before what they should have done at the outset of this pandemic.

Had the Government adopted the approach Australia took in modelling the test and trace on the Singapore system at a cost of £2M (not £12BN) and enforced a 14 day isolation for anyone coming into the country we would likely have managed to avoid multiple national lockdowns. I knew a volunteer at the Foodbank who in February/March had traveled to China and some other Asian countries and traveled back via London and Glasgow without any checks. They just waved him through. Unbelievable. The NHS should not have allowed COVID-19 patients in hospitals to “return” to care homes while still contagious. 
 

Like you I believe there are a lot of mistakes made by the general public. Taking heed of the precautions, social distancing and hand washing seems beyond some people. 
 

I just hope we can all make it as far as the vaccine. 

I really think test and trace is a waste of time.

Australia and New Zealand have been singled out, presumably because they are western style countries.

But like all the countries down there, none have been hit hard by covid. And all these countries have had vastly different reactions. Japan didn’t lockdown and hasn’t been testing aggressively. 
 

Why these countries haven’t been hit hard is something to be looked at. It suggests to me some sort of prior immunity.

Edgar Hope Simpson proposed that you are past the point of infectious ness once you have symptoms. It’s too late by the time someone has symptoms, gets tested and then contacts are traced.

It’s even more worthless if the main driver is a symptomatic transmission. 

Edgar Hope Simpson’s theory  of latent carriers, seasonal effect and asymptotic transmission explains the link below perfectly.

And would mean that testing is worthless. All testing is doing is driving a pseudo second wave IMO

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-argentina-fishermen-trawler-ushuaia-covid-19-echizen-maru-a9621716.html%3famp

 

[bazil85]

14 minutes ago, Yflab said:

In future then don’t bother responding to my posts. Raging? Ha ha. You stupid cnut.

I'll respond to any post I want thanks, its your choice to take it in the argumentative way you always do. If you don't like it you can put me on ignore like others... Maybe you could even show them how it's done by not following replies to me like a desperate puppy chasing scraps 

Let's call this the last one though because you do seem pretty rattled & that wasn't my intention. 

[bazil85]

2 minutes ago, Yflab said:

You are like the Duracell Bunny. Does your wife not need her batteries back for her own Rabbit?

Got more than one set mate. 

[faraway saint]

2 hours ago, antrin said:

Xmas is an indulgence:  Xmas day is a meaningless cartoonish creation - a novelty that has developed (in Scotland) only in the decades since the 1960s.  Before that everyone worked on Xmas day(unless it was a weekend).

It's a wholly commercial construct into which too many gullible people have been sadly seduced.

This idea that it is a time for family and that all generations should/must mix is a nonsense.

 

I accept that the english have done so for longer than Scotland and that - as they didn't have the Ne'erday celebrations to "enjoy". (Again, it's only in recent years - in England - that the Ne'erday was 'granted' as a holiday). 

 

There is no sacrifice. 

You should actually all be seeing your family members whenever you can.  This formalising of visits around an arbitrary day co-opted to be a big selling day is actually rather pathetic and disgusting.

 

I hope this helps.

 

It's an additional day that families make a point of gathering together, many travel quite some miles as it's not always easy to pop round like the "good old days" that you seem still to live in.

The commercial aspect has ALWAYS been the case, aye, even since the 60's

.For many that HAVE family, unlike you, ya miserable sod, it is a sacrifice, but you wouldn't understand that.

I would say your outlook is pathetic and rather sad.

I hope this helps. 

[Ayrshire Saints]

Xmas is an indulgence:  Xmas day is a meaningless cartoonish creation - a novelty that has developed (in Scotland) only in the decades since the 1960s.  Before that everyone worked on Xmas day(unless it was a weekend).
It's a wholly commercial construct into which too many gullible people have been sadly seduced.
This idea that it is a time for family and that all generations should/must mix is a nonsense.
 
I accept that the english have done so for longer than Scotland and that - as they didn't have the Ne'erday celebrations to "enjoy". (Again, it's only in recent years - in England - that the Ne'erday was 'granted' as a holiday). 
 
There is no sacrifice. 
You should actually all be seeing your family members whenever you can.  This formalising of visits around an arbitrary day co-opted to be a big selling day is actually rather pathetic and disgusting.
 
I hope this helps. [emoji4]
 

https://www.historyscotland.com/scottish-nostalgia/a-wartime-christmas-in-scotland/

Doesn't sound too much different to me and this is well before 1960

[Bud the Baker]

2 hours ago, Sue Denim said:

On the contrary, it’s in the interests of the governments to inflate the death tolls due to covid in order to justify their reaction since the Spring.

Someone goes into hospital with severe respiratory illness and are put in ICU.

They test negative. They are repeatedly tested and then test positive the day before they die. 
 

Down it goes as a covid death.

A care home worker gets tested regularly. They test positive. They die in a car crash 2 weeks later. As they tested positive within 28 days then it’s a covid death.

The gold standard is excess deaths. The current level of excess deaths do not support the assertion that there is a deadly virus in the loose. On the contrary, they support the assertion that people are dying as a result of lockdown restrictions.

The epidemic was over in May and lockdown came way too late to have made any difference. Indeed, the experience of South America and the southern US states, where they locked down at the same time but didn’t peak until months later, show that lockdowns probably don’t work anyway. 

You're certainly different Cap'n!

[Bud the Baker]

2 hours ago, Slarti said:

I never "jumped into the argument".  There is my first post below and also your response.  You had said Faraway Saint had not demonstrated where the flaw was, I was giving a scenario that demonstrated the flaw.  After I posted you said I hadn't explained why all they people/organisations were wrong, when my post had nothing to do with anyone being "wrong", it was only demonstrating the flaw in the method they use.  Maybe it is the most accurate method, maybe it is impossible to get it any more accurate, maybe it is the method with the least number of flaws - none of that changes the fact that the method is flawed.  Simply, "most accurate" does not necessarily mean "accurate" or even "accurate enough".

 

They were not "fantasies", they were examples/scenarios to show the type of situation that would/could result in an error in the count.

 

Anyway, as I said in my last reply to you, 

Well the dance goes on - what a surprise. 

I repeat you jumped into the argument to try and show you were smarter than the average bear - but all you had to offer were ridiculous fantasies and the pompous "I will not indulge you" drivel. 

Well I retain my opinion - reply or don't it doesn't change the fact of the situation that the government's preferred figure for the Covid death total is politically based. As Gabe says...

Quote

Prof Gabriel Scally, president of epidemiology and public health at the Royal Society of Medicine, said the government’s figures, while not giving the complete picture of deaths, acted as a “sentinel system” for the impact of the disease.

“The purpose of it is to act as a sort of monitoring tool so you can see trends against exactly the same data which is very easily computed data,” he said. “It gives you a number where you can watch it speeding up, slowing down, so it’s very good for monitoring trends.

“If you want to know the actual number of deaths, well then you have to go to death certification, which is really the best data.”

 

Edited December 16, 2020 by Bud the Baker

[waldorf34]

38 minutes ago, Yflab said:

I remember the good old days when fitba was played on Christmas Day in 1977.

There was seasonal cheer between both sets of supporters as beer cans and whisky bottles flew across the great divide. 

And then back home for a slap up Christmas meal. 

Kids nowadays don’t know they are born! You just don’t get that kind of action on yer PlayStation.

http://www.stmirrenprogrammes.co.uk/StMirren/STM_Match_Details.php?Season=1976&GameID=197612250

I am that old I can remember  Christmas  was  a working day in Scotland!

[faraway saint]

5 minutes ago, waldorf34 said:

I am that old I can remember  Christmas  was  a working day in Scotland!

Became a public holiday in 1958

[Slarti]

 

I said that I wouldn't indulge the strawman you had built of my position. I still won't.

[Bud the Baker]

15 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

Became a public holiday in 1958

Plenty of businesses work on Public Holidays - I'm contracted to work on New Year's Day (@ Treble time) although luckily it's on my 4 days off this year and I've never had to work the Hogmanay Night Shift even when scheduled - sadly we no longer get paid for not working it. 

I remember plenty of shops open on Christmas day during the early 70s but sometime around the middle of the decade things kinda flipped and it became a more important celebration than Hogmanay towards the end of that decade ironically as secularisation became more commonplace.

Edited December 16, 2020 by Bud the Baker

[Bud the Baker]

 

Quote

 

There have now been more than 6,000 deaths from Covid-19 in Scotland, but the rate of new deaths is slowing after peaking in November, according to monthly data published by the National Records of Scotland (NRS).

The figures show there have been 6,092 deaths in Scotland where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate since the outbreak began, with 224 recorded between 7-13 December.

 

As opposed to Holyrood's preferred figure on the worldometer of 4135 - no wonder NS likes to quote the lower figure.

Edited December 16, 2020 by Bud the Baker

[bazil85]

2 hours ago, Yflab said:

She did say she had multiple holes to service. One being an arsehole. 😂 

From the guy that gets raging and argumentative at practically any post 😂😂

[alanb]

19 minutes ago, Bud the Baker said:

 

As opposed to Holyrood's preferred figure on the worldometer of 4135 - no wonder NS likes to quote the lower figure.

NRS figures reported and quoted every Wednesday soon after officially published by NS, just like on a Tuesday UK figures from ONS are announced.

[faraway saint]

Government announce almost 140,000 vaccines dished out so far in the first week.

Damn them giving out that information, disappointed @Bud the Baker hasn't told us the good news.........................twice. 

[faraway saint]

Well done Tom Cruise, handed out a tongue lashing at crew members NOT following the safety protocol.

He should be given a job by the government. 

[ALBIONSAINT]

Getting my first Covid vaccine shot on Tuesday, 2nd one on 20th January 👍🏻

(translation for Shull &co) Getting my first shot of micro robots on Tuesday, 2nd one after the new world order has taken over. 

[Bud the Baker]

26 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

Government announce almost 140,000 vaccines dished out so far in the first week.

Damn them giving out that information, disappointed @Bud the Baker hasn't told us the good news.........................twice. 

Um they didn't know in the first place when asked - they obviously had to go scurrying about to find out and it wasn't as if it was difficult to anticipate this question being asked - and all the from the government who were calling themselves superforecasters not so long ago. 

But the real new today is that the "following the science" myth has finally been shattered. 🎚️

 

[faraway saint]

4 minutes ago, Bud the Baker said:

Um they didn't know in the first place when asked - they obviously had to go scurrying about to find out and it wasn't as if it was difficult to anticipate this question being asked - and all the from the government who were calling themselves superforecasters not so long ago. 

But the real new today is that the "following the science" myth has finally been shattered. 🎚️

 

Mystic Meg reincarnated. (She is dead, right? )