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For anyone interested, here is the daily deaths data for the UK from worldometer, along with an exponential fit I made from the spreadsheet data which I've then used to predict where we could be in a few weeks time.

The R^2 value is reasonably good and the trend line equation is included.

I hope any sane person can see the good fit between the exponential and the actual data.

Faraway and hiram should be ashamed at not being able to do the 5 minutes of work to reproduce this but I guess not everyone is capable of even the most trivial of technical work.

image.png.240be2180dc99b1c697a92025b0b4a22.png

 

Horizontal axis - starts at 15th Feb 2020. Each data point is a subsequent day.

Vertical axis is number of deaths in that day.

Axes didn't show when I copied the file.

Edited by oaksoft

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6 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

If you are not prepared or not capable of creating the spreadsheet or the trend line equation then why the f**k are you talking at all?

:lol:

Here's what the Italians are saying...............they, have hit 793 in one day, they, are already seeing a levelling out.

"We expect to see the first effects of the stringent lockdown measures adopted on March 11 after 2-3 weeks, so the coming week will be absolutely crucial in this sense: we expect to finally see a  sign of trend reversal," said Franco Locatelli, President of the Health Council

You do realise the Italian figures would need to rocket to reach 3,000 per day.

Edited by faraway saint

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Children, please! :lol: What's all this squabbling about? I'm sure it's pretty hard to accurately model the disease's spread, who knows what variables are at play. Unless I'm correct in my suspicions that this is a New World Order plot, it's safe to assume the measures taken are due to the deadly potential of this virus, and so I think it's reasonable to assume that at its worst there may well be thousands dying every day. Nobody wants that and let's pray it doesn't materialise. Why argue about it, and insult each other?

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Just now, W6er said:

Children, please! :lol: What's all this squabbling about? I'm sure it's pretty hard to accurately model the disease's spread, who knows what variables are at play. Unless I'm correct in my suspicions that this is a New World Order plot, it's safe to assume the measures taken are due to the deadly potential of this virus, and so I think it's reasonable to assume that at its worst there may well be thousands dying every day. Nobody wants that and let's pray it doesn't materialise. Why argue about it, and insult each other?

It's very easy to do a quick and cheap estimate based on trend alone.

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6 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

For anyone interested, here is the daily deaths data for the UK from worldometer, along with an exponential fit I made from the spreadsheet data which I've then used to predict where we could be in a few weeks time.

The R^2 value is reasonably good and the trend line equation is included.

I hope any sane person can see the good fit between the exponential and the actual data.

Faraway and hiram should be ashamed at not being able to do the 5 minutes of work to reproduce this but I guess not everyone is capable of even the most trivial of technical work.

image.png.240be2180dc99b1c697a92025b0b4a22.png

Need more work on your x and y axis. 

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Just now, oaksoft said:

It's very easy to do a quick and cheap estimate based on trend alone.

Maybe. However, let's hope that the lockdown is successful in slowing the spread of the virus, so that your predictions don't come to pass.

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11 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

:lol:

Here's what the Italians are saying...............they, have hit 793 in one day, they, are already seeing a levelling out.

"We expect to see the first effects of the stringent lockdown measures adopted on March 11 after 2-3 weeks, so the coming week will be absolutely crucial in this sense: we expect to finally see a  sign of trend reversal," said Franco Locatelli, President of the Health Council

You do realise the Italian figures would need to rocket to reach 3,000 per day.

FFS. Two things.

First - did I not just say "if something doesn't change" when I posted my prediction? Hmmm. Yes, yes I did. You appear to have missed that.

Second - the Italians can say whatever they like. The FACT is that their death rates are still increasing.

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1 hour ago, stlucifer said:

The numbers of people who could be classed as essential is far more than some might think initially. 

Your right.   The demand for laptops is high, for government  bodies and people working from home. 

I work in facilities, in buildings that is churning out new and recycled PC's. Thinking initially it would dry up. Know there's big demand from other European countries governments.

We also have a big MOD data centre to maintain.     Would rather self isolate, but company at present won't let us.  

 

Edited by pod

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1 minute ago, oaksoft said:

FFS. Two things.

First - did I not just say "if something doesn't change" when I posted my prediction? Hmmm. Yes, yes I did. You appear to have missed that.

Second - the Italians can say whatever they like. The FACT is that their death rates are still increasing.

FFS, you , all of a sudden like FACTS, when it suits you but you love a wee graph to back up your hysterical claims? :lol:

Let's agree it's tragic, no matter what the numbers are, every numbers a person. 

Time will tell, the current measures SHOULD slow this down to a manageable rate for the NHS to do their best. 

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5 hours ago, munoz said:

The latest strict measures on keeping employees safe at my work this morning- got given 1 pair of latex gloves. 

I'm feeling so much safer now.

The latex should cause a nice rash 

 

you should ask to see the risk assessment that identifies how you are exposed to risk and how a single pair of gloves will protect you, how they should be worn, in what circumstances, how they should be stored, etc

if they really are latex rather than Nitrile rubber then a skin surveillance programme needs to be in place

it is an offence to supply PPE without a risk assessment 

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Just when you thought people could not get any more stupid, there are videos on Youtube and something called TikTok showing people taking part in a new public toilet bowl licking challenge.

No idea if this is fake or not but it's so brainless I actually can't stop laughing. 

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2 hours ago, Yflab said:

MoTs to be extended by 6 months.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52036333

I read that as saying existing MOT to be extended by 6 months.

What if your car is just under 3 years old and doesn't have a MOT  ?

My 1st MOT wont be due till June so it isn't a problem for me at this moment.

Are garages open for doing a service to maintain the warranty a car owner may have from the manufactures ?

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3 hours ago, oaksoft said:

@Hiram Abiff @faraway saint. Both of you are intelligent enough.

Instead of posting absolutely shite and calling everyone else names, why don't the pair of you stop being so fecking lazy and quite simply take the data from worldometer on UK daily deaths, put them in a spreadsheet, fit an exponential trend line and then use the equation of the curve to give a rough and ready prediction of how many deaths we'll be at by 6th April.

It's literally 5 minutes work and it's not as if you brainboxes have anything better to do with your time.

whether they are dummies or not, YOU are certainly an arrogant twat

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1 minute ago, Dickson said:

As far as I know many of them are. The place where I bought my car sent out an e-mail to advise they were operating with reduced staffing levels to assist with social distancing. 

My local garage is still open, and the one that I usually use for servicing and MOT's when I need them, in Wishaw, is open.

I actually been using the independence Toyota garage in Helensburgh for my services and MOT for a lot of years now.

Always get a good discount and service.

No chance I am giving my car to any Arnold Clark garage, specifically Linwood  :lol:

 

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