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faraway saint
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South Africa death recording today is up 50% on the same point last week, still low numbers but early signs that the pandemic is following the same trends, all be it at a more gradual increase. 

1 Cases

2 Hospitalisations

3 Deaths

A real warning sign of what is to come in the UK with far higher numbers and an older population. Let's not make the mistakes made multiple times before in this pandemic where people assume it isn't much of an issue. Sadly for me, feel more restrictions are going to be needed before long. 

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4 hours ago, BuddieinEK said:

This is an interesting read... Shared by the Manager of a number of musicians and artists ... ...

"So... since last weekend I've been part of an interesting experiment (altho TBH I'd rather not have been!). This is my direct Covid experience, FWIW.

Last Friday was supposed to be the 1st night of a (sold out) series of 4 gigs by Dean Owens & Friends.

Fri was great - amazing to have the live music experience with that magical interaction that happens between musicians and audience.

Sadly, on the way home, one of our musicians started to feel slightly unwell, and by Sat morning came out with the chilling words "I've got 2 lines" (on LF test). He'd been negative on previous 2 days followng a flight to Scotland, and feeling fine.

We made the painful decision to cancel the remaining 3 gigs, to err on the side of caution.

Within 2-3 days 7 of us (all directly connected to the band "bubble") tested positive for Covid.

The 2 who've had booster jabs (older, and inc 1 with asthma) have had very mild cold-like sympoms.

The rest (all double vaxxed) have had varying degrees of flu-like effects, with some being completely poleaxed, vomiting, raging temperature etc.

None of us however, has (so far) been ill enough to need hospitalisation. 40-50 yrs old, fit and with no previous underlying health conditions.

I'm delighted (and hugely relieved) to say that none of the audience has reported succumbing. They were socially distanced in the seating layout, observing masks and hand sanitsiing, LF testing protcols etc.

What am I saying here?

In my experience -

1. The vaccines work - stop serious illness and hospitalisation

2. The boosters add a huge extra layer of protection

3. Social distancing, masks, sanitising etc - especially in combination - all work

4. This is not about Boris or Nicola "stealing our freedom." This is a virus FFS! Seeing healthy people succumb to it in hours is chilling. This isn't fear, it's pragmatism. To protect us all in the long term we need to curtail activities in the short term
O
5. Anti vaxxers often claim a superior immune system - we can't all be that lucky. Do the rest of us therefore deserve to be culled? Is that not an attitude more alligned with fascism? Surely that's not their intention?

Giving up 3 nights of income was a painful thing to do. But it was the right thing to do.

Making and sharing music (and arts generally) is a wonderful, joyful, soul-filling thing. Please remember that musicians (along with artists, performers of all sorts) have lost their way of earning their living in the last 20 months or so. If music, the arts and live performance give you any pleasure at all, please support them now. Buy merch - a CD, a Tshirt - directly from their websites. Support them thro Bandcamp. If they have a Patreon account, consider throwing a small amount/month towards them. In fact, in general, support your local traders, and craftspeople.

If everyone gives a little, they might just make it out of this pandemic alive, to bring you their unique gifts of joy and music going forward.

God knows we are going to need it!

And finally, a HUGE thank you to our NHS workers
Get well soon Dean, Jim, Amy and friends.

Huge thanks also to everyone who has been so concerned about my health, offered help and support, and general kindness. You're all great"

Sent from my HD1913 using Tapatalk
 

The most sensible post I have read in this thread Forget your politics folks,covid disnae care about your dislike of Boris or “Wee Nicky” 
Go get your vax 💉

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South Africa, where this has been on the go for about 6 weeks are as follows...................

Cases................. 7 day average, a more realistic guide, over 23,000 from just over 500 a month ago.

Deaths............ 7 day average, 29 from 11 a month ago, not even remotely matching the rise in cases. 

So, comparing the rise in cases to the real worry of people dying, is next to nothing. 

In Scotland, probably where we should be more concerned, a month ago cases were averaging just over 2,800 per day.

Today that average is just over 4,400.

As you say, ICU/hospital numbers CONTINUE to drop. 

Deaths, slightly down from a month ago. 

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Tsunami of cases on the way as a further 4,336 cases in Scotland today

The only thing is, this is *down* from the 5,018 announced last Friday and *down* from the 5,951 announced yesterday.

And it’s way below the peak of 7,113 on 29th Aug when there were almost no restrictions.

The mistake is assuming that the entire population is susceptible and cases of omicron will continue to rise exponentially.

Along with the huge increases on Omicron cases there has also been a huge decrease in Delta cases. Indeed, the decrease in Delta cases has been quicker than the increase in Omicron cases.

It could well be that Omicron is simply displacing Delta.

As it stands, the current situation is that overall covid cases are currently way below where they were at end of August.

Who knows what will happen next but best to look at the overall picture.

And as always, anything that governments attempt to do will only make matters worse and kill more people.

To those who support restrictions, your virtue, their deaths 

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14 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

Tsunami of cases on the way as a further 4,336 cases in Scotland today

The only thing is, this is *down* from the 5,018 announced last Friday and *down* from the 5,951 announced yesterday.

And it’s way below the peak of 7,113 on 29th Aug when there were almost no restrictions.

The mistake is assuming that the entire population is susceptible and cases of omicron will continue to rise exponentially.

Along with the huge increases on Omicron cases there has also been a huge decrease in Delta cases. Indeed, the decrease in Delta cases has been quicker than the increase in Omicron cases.

It could well be that Omicron is simply displacing Delta.

As it stands, the current situation is that overall covid cases are currently way below where they were at end of August.

Who knows what will happen next but best to look at the overall picture.

And as always, anything that governments attempt to do will only make matters worse and kill more people.

To those who support restrictions, your virtue, their deaths 

While you have posted an awful lot of drivel, overall, I agree.

The reactions, in this situation, are unproportionate, and continuing to kill business's with no substantial evidence to back up the current advice and, sadly, further restrictions to follow.

Not to mention the amount of people that self isolate and are not privileged enough to get full pay when off work. 

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35 minutes ago, Cookie Monster said:

Poor soul publishing wrong figures. Still thichasfcuk emoji849.png

Yes, I’ve mixed up yesterday’s figure with last Friday.

But makes no difference to the point I made as I’m sure you are aware mr internet hardman 🙄


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-59701008

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=overview&areaName=United Kingdom
 

 

CCB2FD8C-E8AD-47D7-8073-B23E15E9A99E.jpeg

7071164B-2536-41DD-B53C-7BAD1016DD86.jpeg

320A0926-43B0-454D-AEF3-EE704D8A4888.jpeg

Edited by Sue Denim
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Yes, I’ve mixed up yesterday’s figure with last Friday.
But makes no difference to the point I made as I’m sure you are aware mr internet hardman

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-59701008
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=overview&areaName=United Kingdom
 
 
CCB2FD8C-E8AD-47D7-8073-B23E15E9A99E.jpeg.7d18de5b57983498ce0d42b50bb21e7f.jpeg
7071164B-2536-41DD-B53C-7BAD1016DD86.jpeg.cf70b15fd0d78515696e7374a448ee1f.jpeg
320A0926-43B0-454D-AEF3-EE704D8A4888.jpeg.e3131a2b60558400cb3380436f4e6a2b.jpeg
More mistakes than that.
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Unsurprisingly the current scaremongering has seen the tennis tournament I was attending next week in Aberdeen to be cancelled.

That, along with the hotel booking see's more money lost for business's.

Oh, I know somebody who's caught this new variant, she was so surprised that the test, lateral flow, was positive she done anther before getting the full bifta PCR which, again, confirmed a positive result.

No symptoms, she took the test out of courtesy for her work, but that's her losing wages before the Christmas/New Year break.

At least she's not a burden on the NHS. 

PS I'm aware not everyone will have no, or next to no, symptoms, but the vast majority will hardly know they've "got it". 

Edited by faraway saint
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54 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

Yes, I’ve mixed up yesterday’s figure with last Friday.

But makes no difference to the point I made as I’m sure you are aware mr internet hardman 🙄


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-59701008

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=overview&areaName=United Kingdom
 

 

CCB2FD8C-E8AD-47D7-8073-B23E15E9A99E.jpeg

7071164B-2536-41DD-B53C-7BAD1016DD86.jpeg

320A0926-43B0-454D-AEF3-EE704D8A4888.jpeg

Sturgeon said the reason for lower cases was an issue with testing result data yesterday and they would be lower today than they would have been without the testing issue. Cases are rising, that's absolutely beyond any doubt. People saying it isn't impacting deaths and hospitalisations are jumping the gun. (again). 

South Africa has seen roughly a 40% increase in deaths over last two days compared to last week, that will likely continue to go up. UK is a few weeks behind them & are likely to see similar (or higher) increases in a the weeks to come.

People can say, we are all fine because Omicron has been here for weeks but the reality is, the average cases last week were only around 9,000 more than they were in mid-November and the booster campaign has been going on for a good while now so that has had a positive impact on limiting hospitalisations and deaths.

It's only been in the last week than Omicron has pushed UK cases up significantly with todays figures around 60% higher than the same day last week. Covid hospitalisations/ deaths don't mainly follow a week later, it's several. We will not know the impacts for a while yet.   

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Despite bazil trying to scare people here are the figures for South Africas deaths over the last 30 days.

The average shows a slight increase, 10 30 days ago to 29 now. This is from a population of over 50 million and has a 25% vaccination rate.

If you want to "pick" dates to compare the average is DOWN compared to 16 days ago. 

 

image.png.e482908c2e7a009561272605d73de5eb.png

Their cases, as reported a few days ago, seem to be flattening out.

They are also starting to remove restrictions on gatherings.

image.png.27be9c344ed71294ec4ddf9a6f9bcef7.png

 

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9 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

Despite bazil trying to scare people here are the figures for South Africas deaths over the last 30 days.

The average shows a slight increase, 10 30 days ago to 29 now. This is from a population of over 50 million and has a 25% vaccination rate.

If you want to "pick" dates to compare the average is DOWN compared to 16 days ago. 

 

image.png.e482908c2e7a009561272605d73de5eb.png

Their cases, as reported a few days ago, seem to be flattening out.

They are also starting to remove restrictions on gatherings.

image.png.27be9c344ed71294ec4ddf9a6f9bcef7.png

 

Again fails to keep me on ignore but that was predictable. 

You looking over a scale not relevant to the increase in Omicron cases shows yet again that you've jumped the gun. 

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15 minutes ago, bazil85 said:

Again fails to keep me on ignore but that was predictable. 

You looking over a scale not relevant to the increase in Omicron cases shows yet again that you've jumped the gun. 

Why is that important, it's simple, you should get that bit, I simply click "show this post".

What's not relevant? South Africa have had this variant for about 6 weeks, I'm showing the cases over the last 4 weeks, I'd say that's very relevant. 

More importantly why are you misleading people and touting deaths over a 2 day spell? 

Jumped the gun?

I'm stating the FACTS as they stand, and coming to a reasonable conclusion things are not as bad as some are led, that'll be you, to believe.

 

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2 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

Why is that important, it's simple, you should get that bit, I simply click "show this post".

What's not relevant? South Africa have had this variant for about 6 weeks, I'm showing the cases over the last 4 weeks, I'd say that's very relevant. 

More importantly why are you misleading people and touting deaths over a 2 day spell? 

Jumped the gun?

I'm stating the FACTS as they stand, and coming to a reasonable conclusion things are not as bad as some are led, that'll be you, to believe.

 

You’re the one that made a song and dance about putting me on ignore. Instead of either just ignoring me or putting me on ignore and moving on, you felt the need to announce it. pretty sad & attention seeking IMO but of course you’re not the only one. 
 

Six weeks ago, South Africa didn’t have the daily number of cases we have seen recently, it isn’t a matter of identifying a variant then deaths follow in a couple of weeks, it’s always been big increase in cases, hospitalisations, deaths. How on earth don’t you know this yet? 
 

I’m not misleading anyone, the last couple days of deaths are showing what the concern has been all along. That these cases will soon translate to increases in deaths. 
 

You’re jumping the gun because your posts are all assuming this isn’t a big issue & nothing much to worry about. We can’t possibly know the extent yet. Just like last year when you laughed at the death predictions that then came to pass, just like at the start when you seemed to think they were making too big a deal out of the ‘flu’ 

Will you ever learn? :whistle

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22 minutes ago, waldorf34 said:

Just simple arithmetic  tells me it's not too severe,we have tested over 200000 people  in the last week ,ave positive test rate  was 10% ie 20000 tested positive in the last week.

But hospital  numbers went down!

Because people don't generally end up in hospital within a few days of a positive test, most will be a couple of weeks, deaths are then a bit longer. If hospitalisations don’t go up in the next couple weeks then that’ll be more telling. South Africa tells us they will go up though. 

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20 minutes ago, bazil85 said:

You’re the one that made a song and dance about putting me on ignore. Instead of either just ignoring me or putting me on ignore and moving on, you felt the need to announce it. pretty sad & attention seeking IMO but of course you’re not the only one. 
 

Six weeks ago, South Africa didn’t have the daily number of cases we have seen recently, it isn’t a matter of identifying a variant then deaths follow in a couple of weeks, it’s always been big increase in cases, hospitalisations, deaths. How on earth don’t you know this yet? 
 

I’m not misleading anyone, the last couple days of deaths are showing what the concern has been all along. That these cases will soon translate to increases in deaths. 
 

You’re jumping the gun because your posts are all assuming this isn’t a big issue & nothing much to worry about. We can’t possibly know the extent yet. Just like last year when you laughed at the death predictions that then came to pass, just like at the start when you seemed to think they were making too big a deal out of the ‘flu’ 

Will you ever learn? :whistle

You're the one who regularly runs around shouting about being "needy", even when I haven't directed any post at you, aye, needy right enough.

Even sinking as low as "buddying up" with my troll this week, that's sad. (You do know that's Shull, or maybe you don't) 

Hospitalisations and deaths certainly DO follow within a 6 week period, how do you not know this yet? 

 

Time between a symptom onset and hospitalisation

Time from developing symptoms and being admitted to hospital varies, with age having the largest impact on the length of the delay. Median times from symptom onset to hospitalisation vary between 1 and 6.7 days depending on age and whether or not the patient lives in a nursing home4.

In people aged under 20 years, delay is the shortest, with a median of just 1 day (more than 2.6 days for a quarter of patients) compared with 4 days for people aged 20 to 60 years and 60 to 80 years (more than 6.7 days for a quarter of patients), and 1.6 days for those aged 80 years and over (more than 4.3 days for a quarter of patients)4.

Median time from symptom onset to admission to an Intensive Care Unit (ICU) is estimated to be between 6 and 10.5 days in different studies5,6,7.

Time between symptom onset and/or hospitalisation and death

The World Health Organization (WHO) reported time between developing symptoms and deaths ranging from two to eight weeks8. Median time between symptom onset and death differs between studies and was estimated as 16 or 19 days6,9. Similarly, reported median times between ICU admission and death varied across studies and were estimated as 7 or 12.5 days

Oh, you've been touting this "40%" rise over a 2 day period, that's absolutely misleading, and fits the bill of your outlook.

You continually ignore the vaccination rate in the UK compared to South Africa, which logically would see less hospitalisation and deaths than South Africa, which has been VERY low. 

Jumped the gun, well, I'm quite prepared to make a decision that doesn't follow every word that the government tell me, or St Mirren football club for that natter, unlike you. 🐑

 

Edited by faraway saint
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35 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

You're the one who regularly runs around shouting about being "needy", even when I haven't directed any post at you, aye, needy right enough.

Even sinking as low as "buddying up" with my troll this week, that's sad. (You do know that's Shull, or maybe you don't) 

Hospitalisations and deaths certainly DO follow within a 6 week period, how do you not know this yet? 

 

Time between a symptom onset and hospitalisation

Time from developing symptoms and being admitted to hospital varies, with age having the largest impact on the length of the delay. Median times from symptom onset to hospitalisation vary between 1 and 6.7 days depending on age and whether or not the patient lives in a nursing home4.

In people aged under 20 years, delay is the shortest, with a median of just 1 day (more than 2.6 days for a quarter of patients) compared with 4 days for people aged 20 to 60 years and 60 to 80 years (more than 6.7 days for a quarter of patients), and 1.6 days for those aged 80 years and over (more than 4.3 days for a quarter of patients)4.

Median time from symptom onset to admission to an Intensive Care Unit (ICU) is estimated to be between 6 and 10.5 days in different studies5,6,7.

Time between symptom onset and/or hospitalisation and death

The World Health Organization (WHO) reported time between developing symptoms and deaths ranging from two to eight weeks8. Median time between symptom onset and death differs between studies and was estimated as 16 or 19 days6,9. Similarly, reported median times between ICU admission and death varied across studies and were estimated as 7 or 12.5 days

Oh, you've been touting this "40%" rise over a 2 day period, that's absolutely misleading, and fits the bill of your outlook.

You continually ignore the vaccination rate in the UK compared to South Africa, which logically would see less hospitalisation and deaths than South Africa, which has been VERY low. 

Jumped the gun, well, I'm quite prepared to make a decision that doesn't follow every word that the government tell me, or St Mirren football club for that natter, unlike you. 🐑

 

You made a song & dance about putting me on ignore. I predicted it was nothing more than a show as you are unable to ignore me. That’s proven in responding to me & mentioning me in unrelated posts time & time again, where I will happily jump in. You’re an absolute embarrassment with this. If someone doesn’t want to engage, just don’t engage, it really should be that simple 😂

Covid case averages in South Africa six weeks ago. It’s absolutely you that has no clue how to read trends & we’ll likely see that more in a few weeks. Just like we did last year with deaths…

DB1874C5-CD91-448B-9A1F-895A56AB38C8.jpeg

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1 minute ago, bazil85 said:

You made a song & dance about putting me on ignore. I predicted it was nothing more than a show as you are unable to ignore me. That’s proven in responding to me & mentioning me in unrelated posts time & time again, where I will happily jump in. You’re an absolute embarrassment with this. If someone doesn’t want to engage, just don’t engage, it really should be that simple 😂

Covid case averages in South Africa six weeks ago. It’s absolutely you that has no clue how to read trends & we’ll likely see that more in a few weeks. Just like we did last year with deaths…

DB1874C5-CD91-448B-9A1F-895A56AB38C8.jpeg

Cases?

I've already shown, numerous times, that the cases have gone though the roof over the last month, from almost nothing, after this was discovered about 6 weeks ago?

image.thumb.png.1837cbf13347a47e30a647a5091044aa.png

Nice attempt at deflection on the other points, and, as this is the third post, it'll be my last as it just feeds your desire to regurgitate the same drivel time after time.

Betty will be along soon after a few glasses of cheap wine.

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6 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

Cases?

I've already shown, numerous times, that the cases have gone though the roof over the last month, from almost nothing, after this was discovered about 6 weeks ago?

image.thumb.png.1837cbf13347a47e30a647a5091044aa.png

Nice attempt at deflection on the other points, and, as this is the third post, it'll be my last as it just feeds your desire to regurgitate the same drivel time after time.

Betty will be along soon after a few glasses of cheap wine.

Honestly like arguing with a brick wall. We’ve now went from six weeks to a month though so I suppose progress. Cases have went up sharply the last couple of weeks, your graph LITERALLY shows this & now the deaths are seemingly on the rise. This is what has been predicted & what will likely happen here on a larger scale. 
 

Your three post rule, much like your ignore posts, ‘look at me, look what I’m doing’ cries for attention. 
 

Cringeworthy 

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Unsurprisingly the current scaremongering has seen the tennis tournament I was attending next week in Aberdeen to be cancelled.
That, along with the hotel booking see's more money lost for business's.
Oh, I know somebody who's caught this new variant, she was so surprised that the test, lateral flow, was positive she done anther before getting the full bifta PCR which, again, confirmed a positive result.
No symptoms, she took the test out of courtesy for her work, but that's her losing wages before the Christmas/New Year break.
At least she's not a burden on the NHS. 
PS I'm aware not everyone will have no, or next to no, symptoms, but the vast majority will hardly know they've "got it". 
Yesterday my cousin and 30 of the folk he was out at a Xmas party at the weekend with, have tested positive for the new variant. This now all he has in his words is a tickly cough. Hopefully that's as bad as it gets.
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It’s a tragedy, however I tend to believe that those who were susceptible/vulnerable to Covid have now been taken from us in the first and second wave. I suspect that with a population that is now almost 80% vaccinated and ICUs now able to offer a treatment that can limit the damage done by Covid/immune response their doesn’t appear to be a large amount of hosts that the virus can kill. 

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