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So, it seems there's been a change of plan from the Scottish Government who decide to release provisional figures for cases.

As usual, these are big numbers.

@FTOF thoughts on reducing the outdated 10 day isolation period have to be brought in sooner rather than later. 

Wonder why they didn't release the numbers that matter, hospital/ICU admissions and deaths? :rolleyes:

The numbers of deaths in the UK, I'd stopped using UK numbers but these are still available, have dropped over the last 4 weeks.

That doesn't quite fit the hopes/predictions of Beetlejuice. 

Meanwhile in South Africa the cases continue to drop but, more importantly, deaths are rising, albeit in very small numbers. (Average 67)

 

Edited by faraway saint
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3 hours ago, faraway saint said:

So, it seems there's been a change of plan from the Scottish Government who decide to release provisional figures for cases.

As usual, these are big numbers.

@FTOF thoughts on reducing the outdated 10 day isolation period have to be brought in sooner rather than later. 

Wonder why they didn't release the numbers that matter, hospital/ICU admissions and deaths? :rolleyes:

The numbers of deaths in the UK, I'd stopped using UK numbers but these are still available, have dropped over the last 4 weeks.

That doesn't quite fit the hopes/predictions of Beetlejuice. 

Meanwhile in South Africa the cases continue to drop but, more importantly, deaths are rising, albeit in very small numbers. (Average 67)

 

Dying cases will be last to rise and last to fall.

We should ,as you say ,concentrate  on hospital  admission  and ICU numbers ,as the straight connection between  cases  and these is nothing like before.

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3 hours ago, faraway saint said:

So, it seems there's been a change of plan from the Scottish Government who decide to release provisional figures for cases.

As usual, these are big numbers.

@FTOF thoughts on reducing the outdated 10 day isolation period have to be brought in sooner rather than later. 

Wonder why they didn't release the numbers that matter, hospital/ICU admissions and deaths? :rolleyes:

The numbers of deaths in the UK, I'd stopped using UK numbers but these are still available, have dropped over the last 4 weeks.

That doesn't quite fit the hopes/predictions of Beetlejuice. 

Meanwhile in South Africa the cases continue to drop but, more importantly, deaths are rising, albeit in very small numbers. (Average 67)

 

I was reading the latest daily Covid update that I get from the New York times.

In the past 14 days cases are up 83% .Some might say a veritable tsunami like increase:wink:. Hospital cases, although not near the peaks of past months, are up 7%, which is encouraging, so far. Let's hope they stay relatively low.

In new York State, there has been a four fold increase in child hospitalisation since the beginning of December. Although 50% of those are unvaccinated under 5's. Admittedly it's a very small percentage of the total number of hospitalisations. Still, something to keep an eye on.

Quote

Throughout the pandemic, experts have said children are less likely to develop serious illness. For the week from 9 to 16 December, the American Academy of Pediatrics reported 169,964 pediatric Covid-19 cases, representing 1.8% to 4.1% of hospitalised patients in the U.S.

As has been mentioned, deaths and hospitalisations are not the only important factors. several other factors are discussed below.  

 

Quote

 

 

Past surges of the coronavirus have been regional, allowing states to reallocate resources like monoclonal antibodies, while this wave has threatened to overtake the whole country at once, said Michael Osterholm, a professor and director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

“With this one, all 50 states are in the soup at the same time. It’s like every state is being hit by a viral hurricane (Deary me, must they use such "scary" language?:lol,)” he said.

Dr. Osterholm predicts that in the next three to five weeks, a substantial share of health care workers will get infected and be unable to work, straining an overburdened system. “We’re already stretched so thinly,” he said.

 

 

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4 hours ago, faraway saint said:

So, it seems there's been a change of plan from the Scottish Government who decide to release provisional figures for cases.

As usual, these are big numbers.

@FTOF thoughts on reducing the outdated 10 day isolation period have to be brought in sooner rather than later. 

Wonder why they didn't release the numbers that matter, hospital/ICU admissions and deaths? :rolleyes:

The numbers of deaths in the UK, I'd stopped using UK numbers but these are still available, have dropped over the last 4 weeks.

That doesn't quite fit the hopes/predictions of Beetlejuice. 

Meanwhile in South Africa the cases continue to drop but, more importantly, deaths are rising, albeit in very small numbers. (Average 67)

 

Another pathetic & inaccurate comment. As said all along, the data to come will be very telling & history says, it won’t be all sunshine & skittles as you seem to think. 
 

South Africa has already shown us that hospitalisations & deaths follow Covid infections. It is yet to be seen how this will play out in the UK with a FAR bigger wave. 
 

For someone that has been wrong since almost day one of this pandemic (remember the just a flu comment?) it’s amazing you stand by this jumping the gun policy. 

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22 minutes ago, waldorf34 said:

Dying cases will be last to rise and last to fall.

We should ,as you say ,concentrate  on hospital  admission  and ICU numbers ,as the straight connection between  cases  and these is nothing like before.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-omicron-hospital-cases-restrictions-england-latest-b1982851.html?amp
 

London is now showing a prelude to what’s likely to come over the UK. 

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9 minutes ago, bazil85 said:

Another pathetic & inaccurate comment. As said all along, the data to come will be very telling & history says, it won’t be all sunshine & skittles as you seem to think. You have been blabbering for weeks that the UK will show an increase, yet it's still not here. NOT ONCE have I said there will be no increase yet you still play the "I'm right, you're wrong" game. 
 

South Africa has already shown us that hospitalisations & deaths follow Covid infections. It is yet to be seen how this will play out in the UK with a FAR bigger wave. 

South Africa has showed that the numbers hardly rise. More twisting of the facts. If you're trying to "correct" again with a small increase you are the ghoul that you have been throughout.
 

For someone that has been wrong since almost day one of this pandemic (remember the just a flu comment?) it’s amazing you stand by this jumping the gun policy. 

Another twisting of the facts, although the flu symptoms case seems top be shared, (SEE BELOW) except by you who only sees hospitalizations and death, you fecking ghoul. 

 

On 12/24/2021 at 7:23 PM, faraway saint said:

Little did I know this would come true..................

Richard Adams
Fri, 24 December 2021, 2:18 pm
 
 
 
 
Photograph: Yelizaveta Tomashevska/Alamy

The most widespread symptoms of the Omicron variant now match those of common colds, with calls for the government to update its public health messaging to include a wider number of likely Covid symptoms.

The most common symptoms reported among users of the Zoe Covid app have been a running nose, headaches, fatigue, sneezing and sore throats, according to the study’s most recent analysis of confirmed cases in London.

 

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48 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

 

 

You were wrong at the start of the pandemic on the severity & you have likely jumped the gun this time. You also crave attention & antagonism on here. Maybe why you have made such a song and dance about Covid not being a big deal (incorrectly) so many times. 

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Just now, bazil85 said:

You were wrong at the start of the pandemic on the severity & you have likely jumped the gun this time. You also crave attention & antagonism on here. Maybe why you have made such a song and dance about Covid not being a big deal (incorrectly) so many times. 

You twist facts, ignore other's that don't suit your dreary outlook and change the direction of the debate at every opportunity. 

As for covid, balance and proportion, two things that you really have no idea about. 

Now run along, you've bored me enough, I have a party to arrange. 

:snore

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25 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

You twist facts, ignore other's that don't suit your dreary outlook and change the direction of the debate at every opportunity. 

As for covid, balance and proportion, two things that you really have no idea about. 

Now run along, you've bored me enough, I have a party to arrange. 

:snore

From the guy literally ignoring the overwhelming scientific concern. 😂

I don’t bore you, you actively search out my engagement. That’s fact. 

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21 hours ago, bazil85 said:

From the guy literally ignoring the overwhelming scientific concern. 😂

I don’t bore you, you actively search out my engagement. That’s fact. 

It's well documented that the "science" has been all over the place, like you, throughout this mess.

I'm presenting the facts, not attempting, unlike you, to manipulate them, remember your hilarious "deaths up 40%" post a while ago over a 1 or 2 day period?  🤡

Here's the latest from South Africa.

image.png.b2b9c86df85639b90783173f60fc6754.png

image.png.c7fb893d14d1dd80b126a7251be3610e.png

Meanwhile over in the good old USA, a similar pattern, cases rising, not a lot happening at the serious end of the scale. 

image.png.e67b337c5a3e0395d7f4921e7dc25838.png

image.png.1d2f22c36d5827f718a11d25b9714b83.png

Edited by faraway saint
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While the numbers from other countries are a good guide they are secondary to what's happening UK wide, or more importantly to me, Scotland.

The cases v deaths in the UK & Scotland are following a very similar pattern to South Africa, who are about 4 weeks "ahead" of us in this latest new variant situation. 

I'm not "cherry picking" areas in the UK/Scotland as I believe a wider picture gives a more realistic reflection.

The current frenzy of focusing on the cases by the media & Government is producing a real increase in people clamouring for vaccinations and boosters.

That's a positive but I'm less and less comfortable on the benefits to society, not dismissing the health benefits in any way. 

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On 12/27/2021 at 10:03 AM, faraway saint said:

Back to the isolation period, the average contagious period is 10 days after the onset of symptoms.

If it's very mild, and for many, almost unnoticeable, and you don't do a test for, just for a number, after 6 days, surely you should be able to resume a normal life as soon as you have 2 days showing a negative LFT?

There shouldn't be a set period, causing people, business's and services avoidable costs?

As @Cookie Monster mentioned, this depends on people being honest, but the current rules also depend on this. 

The USA are, and I just caught a snippet, have reduced the isolation period to 5 days. :happyclapper

Imagine that, someone with common sense from the USA. 

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The mass fatalities and packed intensive care units marking the coronavirus pandemic’s first year will likely not be repeated in the UK as a result of Covid-19, a scientist advising the government has claimed.

Professor Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford University, told The Independent that vaccines based on early iterations of the virus appear to have remained highly effective at protecting against severe disease and deaths from subsequent waves driven by new variants.

“The horrific scenes that we saw a year ago – intensive care units being full, lots of people dying prematurely – that is now history in my view and I think we should reassured that that’s likely to continue,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Tuesday morning.

While ministers have come under fire from some epidemiologists after choosing not to impose further health restrictions in England ahead of the New Year, as the Omicron variant continues to drive record surges in infections, Sir John backed the government’s decision.

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Aye, misleading use of statistics yet again......................

Asked about the “dramatic” 45 per cent rise in the the number of Covid-19 patients in London hospitals in the week to 27 December, Sir John said: “I think you’ve got to be careful about that ... First of all in absolute numbers, it’s not massive, it’s an increase of about 200 people a day, and it still remains less than 400 which is a marker that we had been watching.”

He said that the disease “does appear to be less severe”, arguing that most patients “don’t need high-flow oxygen” and “the average length of stay is apparently three days”, adding: “This is not the same disease as we were seeing a year ago.”

This assertion was echoed by NHS Providers chief executive Chris Hopson, who said on Monday that many health trust chiefs are discussing the possible impact of “incidental” coronavirus hospital admissions – asymptomatic people who test positive for the virus after being admitted to hospital for another reason.

“As covid community infection rate rises rapidly due to omicron, we will get more cases of this type of incidental Covid-19 in hospital,” Mr Hopson said.

Edited by faraway saint
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2 hours ago, faraway saint said:

It's well documented that the "science" has been all over the place, like you, throughout this mess.

I'm presenting the facts, not attempting, unlike you, to manipulate them, remember your hilarious "deaths up 40%" post a while ago over a 1 or 2 day period?  🤡

Here's the latest from South Africa.

image.png.b2b9c86df85639b90783173f60fc6754.png

image.png.c7fb893d14d1dd80b126a7251be3610e.png

Meanwhile over in the good old USA, a similar pattern, cases rising, not a lot happening at the serious end of the scale. 

image.png.e67b337c5a3e0395d7f4921e7dc25838.png

image.png.1d2f22c36d5827f718a11d25b9714b83.png

Sigh… 

What South Africa shows is a sharp rise then fall in cases, a delayed rise & now fall (hopefully sustained) in deaths. As we have seen throughout this pandemic. 
 

We are yet to see how that will reflect here with FAR more cases, an older population & being through the winter not summer. The signs from South Africa are, hospitalisation & deaths will go up over here. 
 

A milder variant is great news, the massive numbers of cases in the UK however, still means there is big risk to the NHS & people’s lives. 
 

I do agree with you on one point though, about the science being all over the place during this pandemic. it hit like a ton of bricks & showed just how little we know & how unprepared the world was. What hasn’t been all over the place is you though, you've consistently got it wrong & underplayed the seriousness of the situation.
 

Let’s not forget it was around this time last year that my (based on the scientific) prediction on deaths started to become apparent, you attacked & belittled me for months because of that view & instead of being a bigger person & just accepting you were wrong, you had the pathetic defence mechanism of claiming I was happy about that & wanted it to come true. Shamelessly you’re doing the same now. 

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18 minutes ago, bazil85 said:

Sigh… 

What South Africa shows is a sharp rise then fall in cases, a delayed rise & now fall (hopefully sustained) in deaths. As we have seen throughout this pandemic. 
 

We are yet to see how that will reflect here with FAR more cases, an older population & being through the winter not summer. The signs from South Africa are, hospitalisation & deaths will go up over here. 
 

A milder variant is great news, the massive numbers of cases in the UK however, still means there is big risk to the NHS & people’s lives. 
 

I do agree with you on one point though, about the science being all over the place during this pandemic. it hit like a ton of bricks & showed just how little we know & how unprepared the world was. What hasn’t been all over the place is you though, you've consistently got it wrong & underplayed the seriousness of the situation.
 

Let’s not forget it was around this time last year that my (based on the scientific) prediction on deaths started to become apparent, you attacked & belittled me for months because of that view & instead of being a bigger person & just accepting you were wrong, you had the pathetic defence mechanism of claiming I was happy about that & wanted it to come true. Shamelessly you’re doing the same now. 

Beep beep beep, reversing.

You said I was ignoring the science which you were trying to use to back up your belief that things would get worse, the irony in that is staggering. 

Oh, and, as usual, you keep referring to the one set of figures from some scientist, when you've already agreed the science is wide ranging in it's predictions, and that you were right, and you deserve a gold star for this.

You increase your posts when things get worse, as you have over the last few weeks, a smug b'strd who has no ability to see the bigger picture. 

 

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Aye, this sums up where I am in this mess.......................

It’s absolutely logical. The NHS has been stretched to capacity and beyond every winter for decades.

Now NHS approaching capacity is being used as a blanket justification for lockdown//restrictions.

Covid is now an endemic and probably seasonal virus. So if we keep measuring we will see spikes of covid infections every winter. Most likely the virus will become decreasingly severe each year.

But case numbers, regardless of severity, are being used as a blanket justification for lockdowns/restrictions.

So where’s the logic that says this will stop any year soon?

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Aye, this sums up where I am in this mess.......................
It’s absolutely logical. The NHS has been stretched to capacity and beyond every winter for decades.

Now NHS approaching capacity is being used as a blanket justification for lockdown//restrictions.

Covid is now an endemic and probably seasonal virus. So if we keep measuring we will see spikes of covid infections every winter. Most likely the virus will become decreasingly severe each year.

But case numbers, regardless of severity, are being used as a blanket justification for lockdowns/restrictions.

So where’s the logic that says this will stop any year soon?



I agree with most of that.

I don't necessarily agree that "Most likely the virus will become decreasingly severe each year." There is no evidence to support that. It doesn't mean it isn't true, just that there is nothing to point that way yet.
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38 minutes ago, Slarti said:


 

 


I agree with most of that.

I don't necessarily agree that "Most likely the virus will become decreasingly severe each year." There is no evidence to support that. It doesn't mean it isn't true, just that there is nothing to point that way yet.

 

Indeed.

An excellent article, which outlines your very point.

Beyond Omicron: what’s next for COVID’s viral evolution (nature.com)

If viruses became less mild, then there wouldn't be a need for yearly vaccines against variants of Influenza A, which is capable of killing thousands, admittedly in the most vulnerable sections of society.

Quote

 

Other established human viruses do not make the leaps in infectivity that SARS-CoV-2 has in the past two years, and Bloom and other scientists expect the virus to eventually behave in the same way. Trevor Bedford, an evolutionary biologist at the Fred Hutchinson, says the virus must balance its ability to replicate to high levels in people’s airways with the need to keep them healthy enough to infect new hosts. “The virus doesn’t want to put someone in bed and make them sick enough that they’re not encountering a number of other people,” he says. One way for the virus to thread this needle would be to evolve to grow to lower levels in people’s airways, but maintain infections for a longer period of time, increasing the number of new hosts exposed to the virus, says Rambaut. “Ultimately there’s going to be trade-off between how much virus you can produce and how quickly you elicit the immune system.” By lying low, SARS-CoV-2 could ensure its continued spread.

If the virus evolved in this way, it might become less severe, but that outcome is far from certain. “There’s this assumption that something more transmissible becomes less virulent. I don’t think that’s the position we should take,” says Balloux. Variants including Alpha, Beta and Delta have been linked to heightened rates of hospitalization and death — potentially because they grow to such high levels in people’s airways. The assertion that viruses evolve to become milder “is a bit of a myth”, says Rambaut. “The reality is far more complex.”

 

One thing that humanity should have learned over the years is that the forces of nature don't always produce the outcomes that we hope for.

Edited by FTOF
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One thing that humanity should have learned over the years is that the forces of nature don't always produce the outcomes that we hope for.
I don't like language that implies the virus "wants" something, it doesn't, it just "is" and "does", there is no intent. Other than that, yeah.
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2 hours ago, faraway saint said:

Beep beep beep, reversing.

You said I was ignoring the science which you were trying to use to back up your belief that things would get worse, the irony in that is staggering. 

Oh, and, as usual, you keep referring to the one set of figures from some scientist, when you've already agreed the science is wide ranging in it's predictions, and that you were right, and you deserve a gold star for this.

You increase your posts when things get worse, as you have over the last few weeks, a smug b'strd who has no ability to see the bigger picture. 

 

No reversing at all, completely consistent. Where have I ever denied that this has been a massive learning curve for science? 

You’ve been wrong so many times throughout this pandemic & instead of owning that, you deflect onto others like me. It’s pathetic, you’re trolling is embarrassing & a cry for attention. Spread poison in almost every thread then have a cheek to call me out on how I use BAWA. 

Why don’t you go announce your ignore button again… oh that’s why, you’ve never had any attention of ignoring me ever, just more ‘look at me & what I’m doing’ type posts. 

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1 hour ago, faraway saint said:

This thread, and every person that's contributed has added something, has attracted over 427,000 views, quite staggering for a forum that's certainly operating with far fewer members than in previous years. 

Tom Thumb from Arbroath is struggling. His wee man's syndrome is destroying him. Give him praise and attention for this boring thread. The dwarf has just been destroyed by Bazil and deservedly so .

Sue Denim is king of this topic.

Toxic Titch is the new lookatme.

Look at him and laugh at him .

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