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31 minutes ago, Slartibartfast said:

To be honest, you're wasting your time with the graphs. There are far too many unknown variables to get any real accuracy. All your graphs really showed was what would probably happen if the demographics of the whole population reflected the demographics of the group who had already tested positive and nothing happened to slow (or accelerate) the spread of the virus. Of course, neither of those things are likely.

 

This isn't a dig, just an observation.

 

This is a problem every field of science faces but you can't just stop simply because you can't get complete accuracy.

If what you are after, as I am, is a quick qualitative feel for what is going on then you state your assumptions, run your model and interpret appropriately.

To be fair, I really couldn't have been clearer about that.

My favourite example of this is the very first attempt at modelling the electron density within atoms in the 1920s. Theses early models didn't even predict the formation of molecular bonding but those early models were still useful; for getting a feel for what was going on. Thomas, Fermi and Dirac are still famous today as a result of those models.

To this day, quantum mechanical calculations are performed using only a fraction of the number of variables on systems as small as things like the water molecule and dimers because you simply cannot get enough computational resources to perform the job. Calculations on drug receptors are even less accurate - most of them don't even use quantum mechanics other than perhaps at the very core of the receptor - a handful of atoms out of an entire receptor. Doesn't stop pharmaceuticals from using them intensely to predict good drug candidates.

The problem is that non-experts tend not to fully understand the value of computational models. They expect and demand way too much from them and throw the baby out with the bath water.

Edited by oaksoft

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41 minutes ago, Hiram Abiff said:

 


Cringe!

You must have paid a lot of money for that imaginary PhD because you’ve shown on this thread that you clearly don’t know what you’re talking about!

 

Oh Andy! Sweet, sweet, slightly repugnant Andy.

The idea that I would seek or require your validation is so naive that I want to hug you and make you a warm milky drink before tucking you into your cot at night.

Bless your wee socks. :D

Oh and you don't pay for a PhD. In general, they pay you to undertake one. Tax free as well.

Edited by oaksoft

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4 hours ago, FTOF said:

He had that title in the bag by January.:)

Yep but you seem determined to wrestle it from my grasp.

Still waiting to hear what credentials you possess for justifying that rant about other people being "clowns" regarding their interpretation of the data on covid.

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6 hours ago, faraway saint said:

You're the one, well not the only one, who's so far engrossed in calculating the worse case scenario, failing, totally, to see what's HAPPENING, not forecast, in other countries.

I have been watching the numbers carefully, not fannying about with home made graphs, and have been dismissing your ludicrous figures, although you are not in the same league as LPM, who I notice seems to escape your abusive comments? 

I would suggest you refrain from calling me a bellend as you, quite clearly, are the one who's been made look like a bellend, all starting from when you were highlighted as a panic buyer and a bit of a meltdown soon after.

Thanks for being entertaining, I have enjoyed making you look very foolish. :lol:

If I ever need advice on changing a gasket or tightening screws I'll give you a shout.

In the meantime, maybe you should pipe down on subjects you know absolutely nothing about.

 

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12 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

If I ever need advice on changing a gasket or tightening screws I'll give you a shout.

In the meantime, maybe you should pipe down on subjects you know absolutely nothing about.

 

I do know your prediction of Italy reaching 3,000 death in a day was utter drivel.

I came to that conclusion without a graph. :thumbs2

I also, without a model, laughed off the likelihood of the UK having anywhere between 300,000 and 500,000 deaths.

The village idiot from Ayrshire thinks I was betting on the amount of people dying, I was backing up my conclusions.

Oh, I can also manufacture some pretty complicated pieces of equipment to help get oil and gas out of the ground.

You should stick to.........................what are you good at? :rolleyes:

 

 

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17 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

I do know your prediction of Italy reaching 3,000 death in a day was utter drivel.

I came to that conclusion without a graph. :thumbs2

I also, without a model, laughed off the likelihood of the UK having anywhere between 300,000 and 500,000 deaths.

The village idiot from Ayrshire thinks I was betting on the amount of people dying, I was backing up my conclusions.

Oh, I can also manufacture some pretty complicated pieces of equipment to help get oil and gas out of the ground.

You should stick to.........................what are you good at? :rolleyes:

 

 

FFS How many times do you need told. You are way too early to be gloating.

That's a massive increase in UK deaths announced for today. More than doubled overnight.

You can use whatever "model" you want. Your intuition isn't really valid but whatever makes you happy.

Ooooh look at you - you can tighten screws and grommets! I'm so impressed. Please marry me. :D

What am I good at? Quantum mechanics, software engineering, mathematical algorithms, statistical thermodynamics and applying a wide range of computational techniques to all sorts of real world problems and a whole host of other technical things. Don't get me wrong, when the revolution comes they'll be needing grommet installers and not what I can offer the world but you asked so I told you.

Edited by oaksoft

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5 hours ago, TPAFKATS said:

People or rather sheeple who think this situation is improving right now, are in for a shock.

Sadly, it looks like you were right.

Daily deaths in the UK have more than doubled since yesterday.

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20 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

You were as quick to jump in when daily deaths dropped from the previous day.

My point is, and was, that the predicted figures you were shouting about are next to impossible.

As I've said, time will tell. 

Just a reminder, you dismissed the Italian President of the Health Council because it didn't suit your calculations? :lol:

I'll go with him rather than you or TPTWAT, who'll be busy scraping around for another reason to have a go at the government. 

 

Edited by faraway saint

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Guest TPAFKATS
If anybody wants a laugh go and read the first page of this thread and see the experts on here telling us it's all an overreaction.

The same ones who are still trying to score points over how many are dying while accusing others of trying to look good on a football forum.

The sort who had a party last weekend because they knew better than the experts.

 

Cunts the lot of them.

 

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Guest TPAFKATS
Sadly, it looks like you were right.
Daily deaths in the UK have more than doubled since yesterday.
Looks like yesterday's figure was skewed by NHS England changing their reporting. Today caught back up with reality.

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1 hour ago, faraway saint said:

My point is, and was, that the predicted figures you were shouting about are next to impossible.

As I've said, time will tell. 

Just a reminder, you dismissed the Italian President of the Health Council because it didn't suit your calculations? :lol:

I'll go with him rather than you or TPTWAT, who'll be busy scraping around for another reason to have a go at the government. 

 

The point is that you will be quite happy to do something one day and then criticise others for doing the same thing a day later.

Some might call that hypocrisy. I call it bellendry.

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Guest TPAFKATS
 
Interesting...
Interesting however it seems everyone on twitter is using that to suit there own agenda. Including those who believe it's all fake.

A bit like when the government used the bits they liked from his original modelling and decided herd immunity was the way to beat this.

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5 hours ago, oaksoft said:

In a post criticising  "clowns on the internet who in their own tiny minds, think that they have become some sort of guiding light on the matter", can you lay out for us your expertise which allows you to make judgments on mathematical models? 

Or is it OK for you to have an opinion but not others?

We have a f**k of a lot of experts on mathematical modelling all of a sudden.

I'm just wondering whether we have a previously hidden and secret cache of computational experts on here or whether you're just as full of hot air as the people you are having a go at.

I have a PhD in it and a host of published articles in international journals so I understand how modelling works and what limits can be applied to their results. What's your background in all of this?

At least you recognise yourself.

Now we're getting somewhere.

And you're so angry that you can't even read properly.

Great meltdown by the way.:lol:

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3 hours ago, Slartibartfast said:

To be honest, you're wasting your time with the graphs. There are far too many unknown variables to get any real accuracy. All your graphs really showed was what would probably happen if the demographics of the whole population reflected the demographics of the group who had already tested positive and nothing happened to slow (or accelerate) the spread of the virus. Of course, neither of those things are likely.

 

This isn't a dig, just an observation.

 

I've read that before somewhere.:whistle

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