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The Relegation Battle - Season 19/20


W6er

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3 minutes ago, St.Ricky said:

Nothing wrong with a bit of obsession regarding the Saints I say

We actually finished season 12/13 in 11th spot with 41 points! Hearts finished tenth that season with 44 points. Hearts also would have ended season 13/14 with 38 points were it not for the 15 point penalty.

I reckon a target of 40 points is both realistic and should see us avoid the bottom two positions. In which case we'll need 18 points from the 36 available. Don't get me wrong, last season Hamilton did it with 33 points, but I suspect we will need more this year.

40 points might sound like a lot, but there are actually 15 points available post-split. 

 

So we have:

Motherwell (a)

St. Johnstone (h)

Celtic (a)

Kilmarnock (a)

Rangers (h)

Ross County (a)

TBC - Hearts (h)

Plus (as things stand):

Hearts (a)

Hamilton (a)

Ross County (h)

St Johnstone (a)

Kilmarnock (h)

 

Obviously the post-split fixture have yet to be confirmed, but those above appear likely. Therefore:

Home: St. Johnstone, Rangers, Hearts, Ross County and Kilmarnock.

Away: Motherwell, Celtic, Kilmarnock, Ross County, Hearts, Hamilton and St. Johnstone

 

 

 

 

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As Cornwall and Faraway have pointed out Hibs collapse was of epic proportions and this contributed far more to their relegation than anything else.

This is the reason those who think County arent anything but safe are completely wrong I pointed out previously they have 3 teams below them and even if they have a Hibs style collapse the 3 teams would have to win more matches in 10/11/12 matches than they have so far and that just isn't going to happen.

1 of 3 might hit a purple patch 2 unlikely all 3 very unlikely.

Not wanting to sound like a broken record but as decent we are at times in matches we cannot win away from home 2 away wins (outwith split) in 2 seasons is the main reason we are struggling to avoid the bottom 2 & will have to change soon if we are to survive.

Talking of County 2 wins 1 draw 1 defeat in 4 matches over last 2 weeks just like Kilmarnock and St Johnstone did a few weeks ago that St Mirren never seem to be able to do.

160888364_HibsCollapse.jpg.ce9160438c3d3379c51138b45b6570ad.jpg
Note Hib's position on 22 February 2014! 
Using a very rare occurrence only shows just that, it's rare.
I could show you plenty of teams that DON'T go down from that position if I could be arsed.
Means next to nothing, except the cliché "nothings impossible" but is unlikely to be repeated. 
f**k me, did Hibs only score 3 points in their final 12 games? I know they messed up hugely but I didn’t realise it was on that scale!
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6 minutes ago, Lord Pityme said:

Our problem has been not being able to bear those around us more often. That's why we are in a mini league now with H& H
To pass county we would need to record three wins more than them by season end, whilst maintaining as a minimum the current gap.
On our form that's unlikely.

I don't think that anyone is saying that it is likely. What some are saying is that it is still possible. That was a very unexpected win for RC against Aberdeen. 

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11 hours ago, W6er said:

We actually finished season 12/13 in 11th spot with 41 points! Hearts finished tenth that season with 44 points. Hearts also would have ended season 13/14 with 38 points were it not for the 15 point penalty.

I reckon a target of 40 points is both realistic and should see us avoid the bottom two positions. In which case we'll need 18 points from the 36 available. Don't get me wrong, last season Hamilton did it with 33 points, but I suspect we will need more this year.

40 points might sound like a lot, but there are actually 15 points available post-split. 

 

So we have:

Motherwell (a)

St. Johnstone (h)

Celtic (a)

Kilmarnock (a)

Rangers (h)

Ross County (a)

TBC - Hearts (h)

Plus (as things stand):

Hearts (a)

Hamilton (a)

Ross County (h)

St Johnstone (a)

Kilmarnock (h)

 

Obviously the post-split fixture have yet to be confirmed, but those above appear likely. Therefore:

Home: St. Johnstone, Rangers, Hearts, Ross County and Kilmarnock.

Away: Motherwell, Celtic, Kilmarnock, Ross County, Hearts, Hamilton and St. Johnstone

 

 

 

 

We are due three home games after the split, so it's likely one of the away fixtures will be reversed.

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6 minutes ago, Hendo said:

We are due three home games after the split, so it's likely one of the away fixtures will be reversed.

Early season I posted that 40 Points means that you are normally safe and the stats posted by W6 show that. So, as W6 says we need 18 out of the 36 available. Six wins would do it. We can start on Tuesday at Motherwell. More likely perhaps would be 4 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses. Time will tell. 

Hamilton and Hearts not only have to match us in points, they need to get one more as our goal difference is so much better. Every little helps. 

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26 games played 5 wins yet you half expect 6 wins from 12, (actually 10) as 2 against the Old Firm and we don't score against them never mind win unlike Hearts, Kilmarnock and St Johnstone who aren't scared of the Blue Half of Glasgow at least.

Our safety first crappy negative tactics are biting us on the a**e big time now other teams are showing us if you actually try and win games inevitably you will.

You also stated Ross County win at Aberdeen was a surprise it was only a surprise to you, we have outplayed Aberdeen 2 times this season in the other game Jon "Ronaldo" Obika missed a sitter to win & from those 3 games instead of 6,7 or 9 points we have 4.

Aberdeen have lost 4 home matches in a row only won 8 of last 25 at home you still think County win was a surprise???

Early season I posted that 40 Points means that you are normally safe and the stats posted by W6 show that. So, as W6 says we need 18 out of the 36 available. Six wins would do it. We can start on Tuesday at Motherwell. More likely perhaps would be 4 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses. Time will tell. 
Hamilton and Hearts not only have to match us in points, they need to get one more as our goal difference is so much better. Every little helps. 
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2 minutes ago, Ronnie said:

26 games played 5 wins yet you half expect 6 wins from 12, (actually 10) as 2 against the Old Firm and we don't score against them never mind win unlike Hearts, Kilmarnock and St Johnstone who aren't scared of the Blue Half of Glasgow at least.

Our safety first crappy negative tactics are biting us on the a**e big time now other teams are showing us if you actually try and win games inevitably you will.

You also stated Ross County win at Aberdeen was a surprise it was only a surprise to you, we have outplayed Aberdeen 2 times this season in the other game Jon "Ronaldo" Obika missed a sitter to win & from those 3 games instead of 6,7 or 9 points we have 4.

Aberdeen have lost 4 home matches in a row only won 8 of last 25 at home you still think County win was a surprise???
 

All about opinions Ronnie. I didn't say we would, I said what I think might be needed to deliver the 40 point total. As for the RC win, yes I still think it was a surprise. They were only a couple of points or so ahead of us courtesy of their late in extra time winner against us in Dingwall. 

Edited by St.Ricky
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18 minutes ago, Ronnie said:

26 games played 5 wins yet you half expect 6 wins from 12, (actually 10) as 2 against the Old Firm and we don't score against them never mind win unlike Hearts, Kilmarnock and St Johnstone who aren't scared of the Blue Half of Glasgow at least.

Our safety first crappy negative tactics are biting us on the a**e big time now other teams are showing us if you actually try and win games inevitably you will.

You also stated Ross County win at Aberdeen was a surprise it was only a surprise to you, we have outplayed Aberdeen 2 times this season in the other game Jon "Ronaldo" Obika missed a sitter to win & from those 3 games instead of 6,7 or 9 points we have 4.

Aberdeen have lost 4 home matches in a row only won 8 of last 25 at home you still think County win was a surprise???
 

All about opinions is his response when his opinion is only worthy of a moron.

Suppose he's got a point, my opinion is Rangers could get relegated. 😜😜😜

PS Rangers have equalised, I've changed my opinion, now, Aberdeen, they could get relegated. 

Edited by faraway saint
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43 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

Here's the bookies "opinion".............................glad they are not as simple as the forum fool.

image.png.fd8eefd7c5fd2bf66314841ebc638feb.png

Interestingly, Hearts have longer odds than us despite being in a worse position. I have said all along, and I will reiterate it again, Hearts will not finish bottom.

 

However, I agree with the point you are trying to make - that the bookies essentially agree that it's a three horse race.

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On 2/23/2020 at 8:42 PM, faraway saint said:

Here's the bookies "opinion".............................glad they are not as simple as the forum fool.

image.png.fd8eefd7c5fd2bf66314841ebc638feb.png

If the odds dictated who would win then we would not have won last week. Similarly, I wonder what the odds were on us surviving last season at the same point? The logic is undeniable but logic doesn't always dictate outcomes. Win two games in hand (tall order) and we would be 1 point below the team above us and 4 behind St Johnstone and, I believe we have still to play each twice . Not impossible. 

Edited by St.Ricky
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