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IF remaining games are played behind doors (solution)

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22 hours ago, TPAFKA Jersey 2 said:

Ok, so some of these numbers sound big and scary, but for me they need context. 
Let’s say the govt estimate is right, and over the duration of this epidemic, 1,000,000 people in the UK die.

What I’d like to know (and I could probably just google it if I wasn’t such a lazy f**ker) is how many people die in the UK every year? Secondly, how many “extra” people will die as a result of CV (so I guess what I’m really saying  is how many of the folk who will die from CV, would’ve died this year anyway?). Answers to those two questions would possibly make those big scary numbers a little bit less big and scary.

As for the self isolating thing, I’ve been doing it for the last week having returned from France with mild symptoms (fairly persistent cough). Last night it got much worse and I spent an hour with my head down the bog as my coughing had become so bad it was making me sick. This morning I phoned the Jersey helpline and they have said that I need to self isolate for another 7 days and they will be calling me on Monday with a view to getting tested. The rationale for the testing is apparently the France angle rather than my symptoms. 
Now, other than the obvious boredom, the self isolating thing is not a big deal for me. I have full remote access to all my work systems and can work from home pretty much as if I was in the office.

Without wanting to sound all holier than thou, my rationale for self isolating is not to protect myself. I’m fairly ambivalent to catching the virus.  Without wanting to tempt fate or take anything for granted, I’m a fairly healthy 53 year old man and hopefully I’d cope with it just fine. What I don’t want to do is infect some poor f**ker who might not be so lucky. 

This might give you some idea on other nastys that kill people........................the number for corona seems out of date as today is approx 600? 

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Edited by faraway saint

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6 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

This might give you some idea on other nastys that kill people........................the number for corona seems out of date as today is approx 600? 

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You just keep making a fool of yourself by showing your complete lack of understanding of statistics.

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10 minutes ago, Fricky_Bellend said:


Like playing Morton on July 1st ?

Like that only on Jan 1 in Greenock in 1977. The ground was packed. What a game. Best ever from a St Mirren point of view. My sons were only 7 and 8 years old. My wife went along to football for the first time. Those seats in the main stand weren't built to take a gut of my height. No knee space! 

Welcome back by the way. 

And on to ignore you go. 

Edited by St.Ricky

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Comparison with other diseases is irrelevant. TB, whooping cough, measles, HIV kill thousands worldwide. However, they are preventable through vaccination etc. We are facing a virus here which will not kill me, but could easily kill my daughter due to her medical history and dozens of other relatives just through exposure to it. The actual numbers that may die are spurious as they are based on computer models and limited accurate data. The rise in deaths across Europe attributed to this virus have to be taken seriously. However it is a nonsense for our government to delay a major lockdown yet consider lengthy and protracted school closures later which with other possible actions could knock outs and the global economy back decades. It is incredible that l will walk into a school tomorrow and mix with over 1500 youngsters having already seen three people sent home to self isolate on Friday. Why are we still open? Only because no one was tested and as a result we don't know. Football can wait until we have a better idea of what is happening

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For context simple models show that Covid-19 could potential (worst case scenario) result in 200,000 death over a year, a likely scenario is about 10,000 deaths. (there are loads of predictions out there take you pick) Each year 500,000 deaths occur in the UK all causes.  Even a modest prediction would be around  1,000 deaths.

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6 hours ago, insaintee said:

For context simple models show that Covid-19 could potential (worst case scenario) result in 200,000 death over a year, a likely scenario is about 10,000 deaths. (there are loads of predictions out there take you pick) Each year 500,000 deaths occur in the UK all causes.  Even a modest prediction would be around  1,000 deaths.

All computational models based on empirical data are absolutely dependent on the quality of data they are fed with.

By definition they are going to have very little to go on right now so none of these predictions should be taken as accurate. Not even the modest one of 1000.

Edited by oaksoft

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33 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

All computational models based on empirical data are absolutely dependent on the quality of data they are fed with.

By definition they are going to have very little to go on right now so none of these predictions should be taken as accurate. Not even the modest one of 1000.

Absolutely, the difference between 200,000 and 1000 is huge. But either scenario is not insignificant. I think I will go a little baysian and say I am 95% certain there will be more than 1000 deaths. 

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On 3/15/2020 at 1:55 PM, Lord Pityme said:

Thinking out loud... what if the league is abandoned?
Could it work if the spfl simply allow two teams to be promoted from each league and no relegation? Would Mean a couple coming up from non league.

Or be more radical and go for league restructure?

 

Voiding the league means that you are effectively saying it didn't happen. Calling it as is, is going to piss off several football clubs but voiding it is going to potentially open football up to legal proceedings from sponsors and broadcasters who have shown a full season of football that is effectively stricken from the books and meant nothing. When you think about broadcasters like Sky who show the EPL and pay around £1.2 billion or whatever a season to do so, there is potential for a significant backlash across all of world football here.

UEFA will almost certainly not leave themselves open to this possible outcome and for that reason, will more than likely dish out the direction to federations to call the placings as is. They won't be giving a toss about the issues of clubs all over Europe like Hearts, Rangers, Aston Villa or Bournemouth (who would be relegated from the EPL by a single goal)...any one of those and the legal challenge they present are small beer compared with your sponsors and broadcasters coming after you for telling them that season gone past should just be treated as a series of friendlies.

For that reason they won't void.

For the reason that they want their European competitions sorted as close to scheduled start date as possible, they won't allow for season to be extended.

Think calling it as it stands is really the only option here.

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15 minutes ago, djchapsticks said:

 

 

Think calling it as it stands is really the only option here.

They could extrapolate to estimate the final positions. Not sure that would make anyone any happier given that football really is "a funny old game".

ETA Not sure we'd like the result either.

 

ETA,,... Again.

I might be getting as bad a Pricky for a few days.

Because I was on holiday my work has enforced a 7 day self isolation on me. My boss called to apologise for making me stay off work with full pay until Friday. I was really upset.

Edited by stlucifer

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Sorry f it's been said before but one SPFL club has asked for the season to be declared null and void and to start next season with the same teams as tarted last season.  Was it Bill(y), that's Sevco to the rest of us or Ben the Jam Tarts.  If I knew how to start a poll I would've dun it!

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6 hours ago, rabuddies said:

Sorry f it's been said before but one SPFL club has asked for the season to be declared null and void and to start next season with the same teams as tarted last season.  Was it Bill(y), that's Sevco to the rest of us or Ben the Jam Tarts.  If I knew how to start a poll I would've dun it!

Kilmarnock?

they’d be back in Europe, instead of battling relegation...?

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7 hours ago, djchapsticks said:

 

Voiding the league means that you are effectively saying it didn't happen. Calling it as is, is going to piss off several football clubs but voiding it is going to potentially open football up to legal proceedings from sponsors and broadcasters who have shown a full season of football that is effectively stricken from the books and meant nothing. When you think about broadcasters like Sky who show the EPL and pay around £1.2 billion or whatever a season to do so, there is potential for a significant backlash across all of world football here.

UEFA will almost certainly not leave themselves open to this possible outcome and for that reason, will more than likely dish out the direction to federations to call the placings as is. They won't be giving a toss about the issues of clubs all over Europe like Hearts, Rangers, Aston Villa or Bournemouth (who would be relegated from the EPL by a single goal)...any one of those and the legal challenge they present are small beer compared with your sponsors and broadcasters coming after you for telling them that season gone past should just be treated as a series of friendlies.

For that reason they won't void.

For the reason that they want their European competitions sorted as close to scheduled start date as possible, they won't allow for season to be extended.

Think calling it as it stands is really the only option here.

One solution is to forget relegation for one season but allow promotion for a single season with a greater number of relegations below that for the following season.

In that scenario you'd be leaving only the league winners and European place winners with something to complain about. That would minimise the grievances. What you do about the latter groups would be down to each country. I'd suggest that if one team is more than x points ahead with 8 games to go that we hand them the title or the Euro slot. For European places and league leaders less than x points clear I'd probably have a series of playoffs. Each league to decide the value of x.

It's a difficult situation and clubs need to be reasonable about how to resolve this because there isn't a perfect solution.

Edited by oaksoft

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 You are right, there is no perfect solution, but ...
 
If you void it there can be no promotion. League reconstruction, yes, but not promotion. How would you decide who gets promoted if the leagues are voided. If you take, say, the top two from the Championship into the Premiership then you are saying that this season did "exist" as if it didn't there couldn't be a top two. You could have league reconstruction but how would you fairly decide who was in what league if this season is voided. If it is voided then next season had to start with exactly the same teams in exactly the same leagues as this season. It is the only "fair" way to do it if this season is voided.
 
 
UEFA don't have the power to tell the leagues what to do, so they will bat it back to each individual country to decide. The countries may get together and decide on a single approach but if the decision is to void everything then there would be no teams qualified for next season's UEFA competitions.
 
 
To me, the "fairest" way is to average the points (due to games in hand that can't be played) and then call the leagues as they stand. Avoid the playoffs by having no relegation, promoting two teams from each league and the highland and lowland champions. The Premiership could play each other twice (26 games) then split and play another twice (12 games), meaning the same number of games as usual. It would, however, mean that one team from each section is without a game each week after the split.
 
 
The only "losers" would be those in the other two play off places in each league, but, in reality, they weren't guaranteed anything in the first place.
 
 
The leagues could be returned to normal, if required, by adjusting the number of teams relegated/promoted for a season or two - or just keep it as a trial for league reconstruction for a couple of seasons.
 
 
Anyway, what do I know?
 
 
 
Could the attached be half the solution to determining the final league positions if the season is postponed?
Jack-Duckworth-006.jpeg

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