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faraway saint

Effect of Coronavirus

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1 hour ago, portmahomack saint said:

Clever :rolleyes:  Disregarding the evidence that came out of Italy and Spain,  Classic example of the first casualty of war..... the truth 

We’ve had more deaths than Italy and Spain yet never came near being overwhelmed! 
 

You’ve proved my point.

The first casualty of the truth - your post! 

Edited by Sue Denim

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30 minutes ago, nedflanders123 said:

You clearly forget the Italian hospitals were overrun at their peak with the virus.  Hindsight is a wonderful thing and you can only plan/prepare as best as possible.  Do you think the government's across Europe, Asia and America took such drastic lockdown action on a whim?  They did so based on best advice.  The government has not got everything right and that will come out in any post virus review.  Regardless, over 35,000 people (likely more) in the UK have died.  Ignoring current advice that may lead to a second wave and more deaths is inexcusable.

Yes! Lockdown was done on a whim!
 

Governments around the world panicked!

The number of deaths caused by lockdown is known and will undoubtedly vastly outnumber the few saved by the lockdown. 
 

The virus is over. It’s run it’s course. Lift lockdown! 

 

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18 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

We’ve had more deaths than Italy and Spain yet never came near being overwhelmed! 
 

You’ve proved my point.

The first casualty of the truth - your post! 

Lol three guesses to who’s latest account this is. 

1. We managed to slow the infection rates to allow the NHS to handle it better, if we relaxed the lockdown now completely, who’s to say it wouldn’t overwhelm it now? 

2. How much worse would Italy, Spain and U.K. have been without any lockdown? Point one could still happen with no lockdown 
3. yes we did come close to overwhelming the NHS, it defies logic to think no lockdown measures wouldn’t have increased the number of people needing hospital treatment. At the worst point we were pretty close to capacity, an increase would have caused us to breach 

4. Sweden’s approach was economy over people’s lives & they now have one of the highest death to capital ratios in the world despite having a much less densely populated country than many parts of the U.K. can you imagine what our death rate would be if we mirrored them? 
5. analysis shows it probably hasn’t greatly benefited the Swedish economy not having a lockdown 
6. the exponential rate this virus took hold is strong evidence that completely relaxing lockdown with the number of known cases would cause the virus to bounce back to rates it was at previously and likely higher.  
7. the excess death rate is much more linked to Covid19 than any other cause individuals or combined. Your view isn’t one aimed at saving lives, it’s at taking them. 

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18 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

Yes! Lockdown was done on a whim!
 

Governments around the world panicked!

The number of deaths caused by lockdown is known and will undoubtedly vastly outnumber the few saved by the lockdown. 
 

The virus is over. It’s run it’s course. Lift lockdown! 

 

Evidence? 

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1 hour ago, Sue Denim said:

Yes! Lockdown was done on a whim!
 

Governments around the world panicked!

The number of deaths caused by lockdown is known and will undoubtedly vastly outnumber the few saved by the lockdown. 
 

The virus is over. It’s run it’s course. Lift lockdown! 

 

Utter nonsense.  A whim FFS? You say the virus is over, so I suggest you tell that to the families of the 338 people who have died in the last 24 hours.  Do you think the scenes in Spanish and Italian hospitals caused those governments to 'panic'?  If you are so convinced the virus is over can I suggest you liaise with the various governments and science teams to advise them and demand a removal of lockdown and a return to normality. Thank you Mr Trump.

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3 hours ago, Sue Denim said:

We’ve had more deaths than Italy and Spain yet never came near being overwhelmed! 
 

You’ve proved my point.

The first casualty of the truth - your post! 

The reason being we had more time to prepare,  like cancelling non-emergency operations and outpatient appointments,  making more hospital wards available for ICU, Italy and Spain didn't have that time unfortunately,

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Spain will not be accepting international tourists next month, relax, assuming it's a package and not just a J2 flight it will be cancelled


I’ve not contacted the insurance yet as I’m not too keen to ‘show my hand’ - it’s a good idea, I’m just hoping that Jet2 push their dates out and then I could get the no quibble refund.

I’ve absolutely no desire to take a risk and it’s too soon, the holiday would likely be rubbish now anyway!!

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As frustrating as the lockdown is, I am sure we're doing the right thing on balance up here.

I'm just hoping that the 4 stage plan can be implemented faster than one stage per 3 weeks.

As much as Sturgeon is doing a good job I could with a bit less of the "I was almost in tears when I saw footage from Portobello" cringe-fest she engaged in today.

Oh great! Just noticed the time. The pot banging virtue signallers are coming soon......

Edited by oaksoft

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1 hour ago, oaksoft said:

As frustrating as the lockdown is, I am sure we're doing the right thing on balance up here.

I'm just hoping that the 4 stage plan can be implemented faster than one stage per 3 weeks.

As much as Sturgeon is doing a good job I could with a bit less of the "I was almost in tears when I saw footage from Portobello" cringe-fest she engaged in today.

Oh great! Just noticed the time. The pot banging virtue signallers are coming soon......

I agree, I'm getting fed up............................not one part of the media has filmed or spoken to me in all these weeks.

B'strds. 

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It's Friday and that means quiz night.

Tonight's theme is "Birthday" as the host had her 40th birthday this week.

I've developed a routine to make sure I'm in peak condition come 7:00pm, read the encyclopedia Britannica for 3 hours, have a nap then watch quiz shows for 3 hours.

C'mon the Faraways. :thumbs2

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Dr. Gupta, theoretical epidemiology at U Oxford
- IFR of 0.1% - .05%
- Cases is a bad metric
- The infection started earlier
- Herd immunity is lower than 60-70%
- COVID is on its way out
- Mostly nosocomial
- Lockdowns must end ASAP

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Spain will not be accepting international tourists next month, relax, assuming it's a package and not just a J2 flight it will be cancelled

You called it spot on - I will now sit tight and wait on the call for my no quibble refund!!

Feel for any other poor souls that may be in the position where they are contractually locked in with an airline but have a shielded individual in their family - in my case my 10 year old boy.

Might buy our season tickets now - but then that’s a debate for another thread

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To put things in perspective, the virus is now known to have an infection fatality rate for most people under 65 that is no more dangerous than driving 13 to 101 miles per day. Even by conservative estimates, the odds of COVID-19 death are roughly in line with existing baseline odds of dying in any given yearimage.jpeg.20c19daf5948af77fe50e50213d08e1d.jpeg

 

Yet we put billions of young healthy people under house arrest, stopped cancer screenings, and sunk ourselves into the worst level of unemployment since the Great Depression. 

 

image.jpeg

Edited by Sue Denim

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2 hours ago, Sue Denim said:

To put things in perspective, the virus is now known to have an infection fatality rate for most people under 65 that is no more dangerous than driving 13 to 101 miles per day. Even by conservative estimates, the odds of COVID-19 death are roughly in line with existing baseline odds of dying in any given yearimage.jpeg.20c19daf5948af77fe50e50213d08e1d.jpeg

 

Yet we put billions of young healthy people under house arrest, stopped cancer screenings, and sunk ourselves into the worst level of unemployment since the Great Depression. 

 

image.jpeg

What do you think Speigelhalter means when he says "This graph shows that having coronavirus effectively doubles your existing odds of death within a given year" at the foot of that graph?

Interestingly I can't find where he published this graph.

Other google hits show the same graph but with that footnote I mentioned deleted because it actually doesn't tally with the graph data.

I'm going to suggest that this graph is fake.

Edited by oaksoft

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You called it spot on - I will now sit tight and wait on the call for my no quibble refund!!

Feel for any other poor souls that may be in the position where they are contractually locked in with an airline but have a shielded individual in their family - in my case my 10 year old boy.

Might buy our season tickets now - but then that’s a debate for another thread
Excellent news for you, the can kicking by the package holiday firms will continue for some time yet I suspect although flights themselves may well restart in some shape or form in the next couple of months if only to avoid any more refunds I.e. shifting the onus back to the customer to decide if they will fly but packages as we know them are not happening anytime soon. Some of the restrictions being talked about at hotels in Spain and Italy are ludicrous, utterly pointless going if it pans out that way.

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As stated earlier in the thread I’m locked in with Jet2 and due to fly to Lanzarote on the 25/06, big problem is I have a type 1 diabetic 10 year old son and we will not be flying under any circumstances- lesser problem is unless they cancel by pushing flight window out is that I lose £1200

Ouch!!
received_626302754763570.jpeg

As much as I'm gutted at missing, glad you know for your families peace of mind.

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Guest TPAFKATS
What do you think Speigelhalter means when he says "This graph shows that having coronavirus effectively doubles your existing odds of death within a given year" at the foot of that graph?
Interestingly I can't find where he published this graph.
Other google hits show the same graph but with that footnote I mentioned deleted because it actually doesn't tally with the graph data.
I'm going to suggest that this graph is fake.
Andy batters the post count, makes an ubercunt of himself and then goes quiet for at least 2 weeks before returning under a new alias.
Its been exaggerated during lockdown but its the same behaviour.

A psychiatric case study in action.

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