insaintee
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Posts posted by insaintee
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3 minutes ago, portmahomack saint said:
Exactly... wait till the 10 in a row is decided... rates will go through the roof... will the pandemic get the blame... most likely
Now that's a cheery thought😎
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8 minutes ago, bazil85 said:
I agree, lots of other factors that impact them as well. That's why for me, suicide rates shouldn't govern covid19 restrictions. They should however force action regarding support and mitigation.
Absolutely, but I have heard some right wing comentators using suice rates to do exactly that, even though there is only at best weak evidence that this is the case. For long periods of the lock down rates appear to have been lower than normal. Again my data is provisional and I have yet to see any that supports the "everyone is killing themselves," message
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18 minutes ago, bazil85 said:
Fair enough that's your view, I disagree.
On the current trajectory of the last month, if it was to continue increasing close to that level we would comfortably hit many of the predictions by the end of the year. Time will tell, let's hope not but the damage for November has pretty much already been done.
Suicide rate are a very erratic measure, using month on month or week on week comparisions can be misleading. If you look at the duration of the entire pandemic there have been periods where the rate is highter than the 5 year average and periods when it has been lower.
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2 hours ago, bazil85 said:
It's a very sad time we live in, there is no situation where everyone comes out of this alive and yes, I think there is a chance suicide rates could go up in 2020. Both your links are from 2019 data though so it isn't linked to Covid19 (sure you are aware, just for others reading a covid19 thread that might not be). For me you're highlighting another very serious issue in the world regarding mental health, absolutely fine.
It's a matter of opinion but for me I wouldn't say "more worrying" I think Covid19 is rightfully a massive worry in the world right now. I would much prefer to see better support for mental health in any lockdown restrictions than removing restriction policy that potentially increase covid19 deaths further.
I have heard anecdotal evidence that suicides are a "major concern," however the data that I have access to does not support an increase. (This is provisional and subject to revision). Also attempts may be up with translating into actual deaths. It bears watching, but there is as yet no evidence I've seen of this spike.
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2 minutes ago, antrin said:
Junior? Who ye talkin about?
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15 minutes ago, pod said:
Couldn't he have done that while the window was still open and I don't mean jump threw in.
He's a mad bastard isn't he
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On 10/3/2020 at 1:10 PM, Bud the Baker said:
Come on, it's not as if good taste has ever been a prominent feature of the site.
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1 minute ago, pod said:
Did I miss something. Serious question.
Wee Freddo hinting that he'll be away to Dubai soon
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On 10/6/2020 at 5:56 PM, Mid Calder Saint said:On 10/4/2020 at 8:00 PM, Hendo said:Still think we need a left back as cover and a creative midfielder in the Stevie Mallan mould in.
Jim saying today he has funds available to bring in another two players he is now looking at players out of contract and is hopeful of adding to the squad soon.
Perhaps this what Moralis was hinting at.
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On 9/29/2020 at 7:46 PM, barrhead saint said:
The way we play leaves our strikers feeding on scraps. 15 goals for a player this season, on the way we are set up, would be a miracle. Hope I'm wrong though.
Yeah Shankland and Stewart are two strikers that fill that criteria who were on our books. We need to be a bit less Hamilton Accies
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On 9/19/2020 at 10:37 AM, Bud the Baker said:
The right wing over the last 40 years has been focussed on reducing the role of government in ReaLife especially the aspects of it that reduce social inequality, their attitudes during the pandemic are merely another aspect of their Dadaist brand of Libertarianism. Meanwhile many of these "small government" advocates are amongst the biggest beneficiaries of state handouts through cronyism, tax avoidance, etc.
I would suggest that's not quite correct. It has reduced the role of the state in directly supporting citizens. But it has not reduced the role of the government in decision making and controlling social and economic behavior. For example, quantitative easing is basically subsidizing the rich to the tune of billions.
Just read your full post yes I think we're agreeing after all.🤣
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10 hours ago, oaksoft said:
Oh dear God. Can you really be this stupid? 😂
Yes he definitely can
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14 hours ago, Long John Baldy said:
Squirm squirm, wriggle wriggle.
I was replying to a post that stated some clown/expert had predicted 500,000 deaths.
You said the worst case scenarios was UP TO half that figure. You were WRONG.
I'm not trying to prove anything, I stated my view on these early predictions and have since stated my view on todays latest scaremongering figure of 50,000 cases a day, what do you think on that as a possible outcome?
You seem up set.
The paper does say 500,000 but then goes on to say that prediction is unrealistic, it makes a lower estimate based on likely scenarios, The worst case realistic scenario is about half that figure. It you read the paper it makes sense. If you pull out meaningless sound bites then it doesn't.
Also we did undertake measures to prevent that worst case. So you cannot say what would have happened if we had not initiated measures to control the virus.
Again that figure of 50,000 cases does seem high. I did not see the interview. Was he talking about new cases or active cases? For new cases it sounds high. So far we've not seen anything like that (although I suspect we had a lot more cases than we recorded particularly at Cheltenham). If he's talking about active cases then that might be possible.
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2 minutes ago, Long John Baldy said:
Which part of over half a million are you not getting?
You clearly posted..............
I get every thing right.
PS any twat coming out with that statement is, well, a twat...........
It's a top end estimate. of a range of predictions. The working assumptions are based on more than one paper.
I'm really not sure what your trying to prove? That we had an intervention and avoided worse case scenarios is surely a good thing.
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35 minutes ago, ALBIONSAINT said:
Listened to a very strange conversation on the radio coming home from work, BBC Scotland had a Scottish research worker on. She works for a big pharmaceutical company in the states that is close to having a vaccine ready. When asked who would get the vaccine first she said, NHS staff (makes sense) I expected her to then say the elderly and health compromised, but no she said the next in line would be delivery drivers, shop workers, etc. I found this very strange given that in general terms older health comprised people are in a high risk group and your delivery driver etc in a lower risk group. It sounded like she was saying that the economy was more important than older people?
You would first vaccinate the likely vectors of spread. people that have the most contacts with other people
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12 minutes ago, Long John Baldy said:
Can you get NOTHING right...........................as I said, experts coming out of the woodwork in the last 6 months, with predictions ranging from probable to absolutely impossible.
On March 16, a 20‐page report from Neil Ferguson’s team at Imperial College London quickly gathered enormous attention by producing enormous death estimates.
The report, which warned that an uncontrolled spread of the disease could cause as many as 510,000 deaths in Britain,
I get every thing right. You mean this paper I assume. If you read it you will see there is a range of predictions and also we did not have an uncontrolled outbreak. In view of the deaths we've had, an assumption of 250,000 and middle estimate is not an unreasonable guess for what would have happened
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39 minutes ago, Long John Baldy said:
They, experts, did and some gullible punters on here lapped it up.
Where is @Lord Pityme?
PS I'm not convinced these experts use this as a tactic, I think they don't have an ounce of common sense and believe the shite they come up with.
The experts predicted up to 250,000 deaths if we did nothing with the lower end of that range being between 100,000 and up .
The flaw in your argument is that we did something. We still had @50,000 deaths. In a year we normally get @500,000 deaths. And the possibility of a further wave of deaths can't be ruled out.
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1 hour ago, lugton said:
That's not an Afro, that is a haystack
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Think Baird could have done fine for us. However I think it is significant that he has not played for us since a certain league cup game. In which case better for all if he moves on. Goody did single him out as a player he wanted to work with at the start of the season.
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2 hours ago, TPAFKA Jersey 2 said:
That would be rather underwhelming.
Chat of potentially getting our hands on an up and coming Dutch wonderboy turns into signing a 30 year old journeyman from the lower reaches of the English league.
Sam Parkin anyone?Yes please thought Parkin was decent
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2 hours ago, antrin said:
You're perfectly right that - in the wider world - it's PH Officials and experts that need to be convinced.
But I wasn't responding under some illusion that you'd posted those links on this venue because you'd thought this would be the best place such people might find it.
There was silly me, thinking that you posted it in here, so that us dreary, ordinary punters might learn something!
Ah well...
You can learn something
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18 minutes ago, antrin said:
Thanks for these two interesting but unconvincing links.
The first produced by number-crunching people, who have their place, but who recognise that their reports are not scientific evidence that masks work in the public domain but that because lots of countries have adopted them it is worth ding...
The second stresses that the effectiveness of masks has been proven but only in clinical settings, and those findings are possibly not attributable to wearing masks in public.
The doctor I linked to above in Sweden on the front line is honestly upfront saying that his 'report' is necessarily anecdotal.
Same as, if you read the phrasing of your two links - they're also admitting "wearing masks is a good thing" is just as anecdotal as his was
Good to know.
Forunately it is not you that needs convinced, it public health officials and experts. Not wish to dis your *ahem* scientific credentuals
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On 8/7/2020 at 2:03 AM, oaksoft said:
It's hard to stop acting like an ass when I'm constantly exposed to your wittering buffoonery..
Now, go and talk shite elsewhere and stop wasting my time with your infantile pish.
I'll just leave this here 😎
Coronavirus
in General Nonsense
Posted
It' in part because deaths are referred to a coroner and they do not need to come to a conclusion within the two weeks normally given for filling in the death certificate.