Well if you don't mind I’d prefer to decide for myself whether I am right or wrong Mr. Hunting.
My view is that yes there are 4 teams in the “competition” and were it a round robin competition then we would indeed have a 1 in 4 chance.
However, given that it is not a round robin and we only have to win two ties i.e. beat two other teams, then it is a 1 in 3 chance.
We’ll have to agree to hold differing views.
Yours sincerely,
John Nash