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19 hours ago, faraway saint said:

Good news for everybody, except Oaky, today's numbers show a further fall from yesterdays low number.

Sunday 596, today 449.

Still surprised the fatalities outside hospitals in England haven't been recorded or added to the total? 

So we haven’t reached the near 4,000 deaths per day that @oaksoft predicted?

And to put this prediction (the very word that he used himself) into perspective, @oaksoft was predicting that nearly 3 times as many people would die every day in the U.K. from Covid 19 alone than normally die each day.

Oaksoft’s stupidity knows no bounds 

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13 minutes ago, Hiram Abiff said:

So we haven’t reached the near 4,000 deaths per day that @oaksoft predicted?

And to put this prediction (the very word that he used himself) into perspective, @oaksoft was predicting that nearly 3 times as many people would die every day in the U.K. from Covid 19 alone than normally die each day.

Oaksoft’s stupidity knows no bounds 

It was 3000 deaths or thereabouts.

It was under presumption of the UK sitting back and doing nothing - "a business as usual" prediction.

We have since had over 4 weeks of lockdown meaning "business as usual" didn't happen.

The numbers "appear" to have flattened out because the lockdown is working.

We have subsequently discovered that we don't actually have the full daily death figures for the UK because only hospital deaths are counted.

If you want proper context, you need to add all of this to that prediction.

I'm surprised you didn't link to supporting articles from some  of those white supremacist websites you like to read.

Edited by oaksoft

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It was 3000 deaths or thereabouts.
It was under presumption of the UK sitting back and doing nothing - "a business as usual" prediction.
We have since had over 4 weeks of lockdown meaning "business as usual" didn't happen.
The numbers "appear" to have flattened out because the lockdown is working.
We have subsequently discovered that we don't actually have the full daily death figures for the UK because only hospital deaths are counted.
If you want proper context, you need to add all of this to that prediction.
I'm surprised you didn't link to supporting articles from some  of those white supremacist websites you like to read.
You know you didn't need to write that, folk knew what you had actually wrote rather than what someone claimed you had written. It's got previous, so I've read.

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Sweden’s equivalent Imperial College estimates put their ICU usage at 8,000-9,000 beds at the peak if they followed through with the strategy they went with.

The peak ICU usage turned out to be less than 600 beds.

Putting that another way, their peak ICU usage turned out to be less than 10% of what was predicted.

Imperial College estimated that there would be 250,000 deaths in the UK related to Covid 19 if we went with Sweden’s model.

If we reduce that estimate by a factor of 10, based on the experience in Sweden then we get to 25,000 deaths.

Which is no worse than a moderate flu season and not far off what Imperial College were predicting if we followed lockdown

Meanwhile lockdown itself has so far killed nearly 5,000 people with some estimates reckoning that lockdown will kill 150,000 in the UK

How anyone can support that is beyond me

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Cookie Monster said:

You know you didn't need to write that, folk knew what you had actually wrote rather than what someone claimed you had written. It's got previous, so I've read. emoji106.png

Hi cockless 👍

have you threatened to put anyone in hospital yet  with your new alias? 

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17 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

It was 3000 deaths or thereabouts.

It was under presumption of the UK sitting back and doing nothing - "a business as usual" prediction.

We have since had over 4 weeks of lockdown meaning "business as usual" didn't happen.

The numbers "appear" to have flattened out because the lockdown is working.

We have subsequently discovered that we don't actually have the full daily death figures for the UK because only hospital deaths are counted.

If you want proper context, you need to add all of this to that prediction.

I'm surprised you didn't link to supporting articles from some  of those white supremacist websites you like to read.

Your prediction of nearly 4,000 deaths per day were to kick in before lockdown would have any effect

doh! You’re just embarrassing yourself with your stupidity now oaksoft 

And have you been able to find evidence of me linking to any white supremacist websites?

No need to answer as I know you can’t. Your a liar.

The real truth is that you are supporting the right wing fascist police state imposed by a known racist.

And if you need me to help you any further with how data modelling works, like you’ve asked me for in the past, don’t hesitate to ask. 

 

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Hi cockless
have you threatened to put anyone in hospital yet  with your new alias? 
Are you using a name that represents about half the population as an insult?

Now call me cynical but could you provide evidence of any threats that I or whoever you are referring to. Allegations of lying, surely are against some kind of rule of moderation on this site.

Or are you mates of the moderator or site owner and exempt from any disciplinary action?

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Looking at today’s ONS mortality stats we can see that, so far this year, there have been 3,089 FEWER deaths than there were over the same time period in 2015, the last time we had a bad flu year in the UK.

With the virus peaking before lockdown began, and the lockdown itself having killed nearly 5,000 people in the last 3 weeks, it now appears that trashing the economy has been act of total stupidity.

 

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Just now, Hiram Abiff said:

Looking at today’s ONS mortality stats we can see that, so far this year, there have been 3,089 FEWER deaths than there were over the same time period in 2015, the last time we had a bad flu year in the UK.

With the virus peaking before lockdown began, and the lockdown itself having killed nearly 5,000 people in the last 3 weeks, it now appears that trashing the economy has been act of total stupidity.

 

So what kind of flu year are we having just now?

the same stats have us flying above the 5year average 

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22 minutes ago, beyond our ken said:

So what kind of flu year are we having just now?

the same stats have us flying above the 5year average 

Deaths in week 1 of 2000, a bad flu year in the U.K, were higher than the peak week of Covid 19 in 2020 according to ONS stats.

And there have been fewer deaths so far this year than in 2015 or 2018.

So, whatever type of flu year you’d classify this, it obviously doesn’t merit trashing the economy.

Nor does it merit 5,000 people dying as a result of lockdown 

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Today's numbers jump up to 828 due to the delay in reporting over the weekend, hence lower numbers over the weekend.

An average over the last week of 747, still holding up the belief things are staying fairly even.

Should put a stop to any ideas of lifting the current restrictions. 

 

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1 minute ago, faraway saint said:

Today's numbers jump up to 828 due to the delay in reporting over the weekend, hence lower numbers over the weekend.

An average over the last week of 747, still holding up the belief things are staying fairly even.

Should put a stop to any ideas of lifting the current restrictions. 

 

Interesting, thanks.

Any chance of a graph, Oaky? I'd like to see what you make of all this. 

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10 minutes ago, W6er said:

Interesting, thanks.

Any chance of a graph, Oaky? I'd like to see what you make of all this. 

There's no point of a graph at the moment for two reasons.

Firstly and most damagingly, the data is not reliable enough to make any useful trends now that we know they haven't been including deaths outside of hospitals.

Secondly, the numbers of daily deaths appears to have levelled off thanks entirely to th lockdown process so we've moved away from the "Business as Usual" trend I posted before. There's no realistic way of predicting whether things will take off , continue to plateau or start to drop and by which timescales.

It's misleading to look at those daily death rates levelling off and think things are looking better because the next big thing to focus on is probably the relative daily rates of infection and death compared to the recovery numbers each day because until more are recovering than are becoming infected, the NHS is still heading for overflow regardless of whether the daily death rates continue to be flat.

 

 

Edited by oaksoft

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13 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

Today's numbers jump up to 828 due to the delay in reporting over the weekend, hence lower numbers over the weekend.

 

 

Two pages ago you were wittering on about how this was bollocks when at least two of us told you this.

Now you are trying to educate us about it.

You are just posting for the sake of posting now.

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6 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

There's no point of a graph at the moment for two reasons.

Firstly and most damagingly, the data is not reliable enough to make any useful trends now that we know they haven't been including deaths outside of hospitals.

Secondly, the numbers of daily deaths appears to have levelled off thanks entirely to th lockdown process so we've moved away from the "Business as Usual" trend I posted before. There's no realistic way of predicting whether things will take off , continue to plateau or start to drop and by which timescales.

It's misleading to look at those daily death rates levelling off and think things are looking better because the next big thing to focus on is probably the relative daily rates of infection and death compared to the recovery numbers each day because until more are recovering than are becoming infected, the NHS is still heading for overflow regardless of whether the daily death rates continue to be flat.

 

 

No worries! It wasn't a veiled dig, by the way. I also appreciate how the lockdown will have effected your estimates.

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13 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

Two pages ago you were wittering on about how this was bollocks when at least two of us told you this.

Now you are trying to educate us about it.

You are just posting for the sake of posting now.

Was I? :blink:

Dear oh dear, now your making stuff up, are you ok? :byebye

 

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18 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

There's no point of a graph at the moment for two reasons.

Firstly and most damagingly, the data is not reliable enough to make any useful trends now that we know they haven't been including deaths outside of hospitals.

Secondly, the numbers of daily deaths appears to have levelled off thanks entirely to th lockdown process so we've moved away from the "Business as Usual" trend I posted before. There's no realistic way of predicting whether things will take off , continue to plateau or start to drop and by which timescales.

It's misleading to look at those daily death rates levelling off and think things are looking better because the next big thing to focus on is probably the relative daily rates of infection and death compared to the recovery numbers each day because until more are recovering than are becoming infected, the NHS is still heading for overflow regardless of whether the daily death rates continue to be flat.

 

 

No you didn't.

You graph was posted several days after the lockdown.

No matter how many times you say it it's still a big fat lie. 

Bad enough you made an utter cnut of yourself with the graph, now you're proving you're a lowlife that can't admit he was wrong.

What a walloper. :byebye

PS I've not highlighted the minor spelling error, you make a cnut of yourself enough without highlighting them. :lol:

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2 minutes ago, Hiram Abiff said:

More than half of ICU beds in Scotland are empty

I thought the purpose of this illegal police state lockdown was to ensure that the NHS wasn’t overwhelmed?

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18377095.coronavirus-scotland-half-icu-beds-empty/

Can't be..................

3 hours ago, oaksoft said:

the NHS is still heading for overflow regardless of whether the daily death rates continue to be flat.

 

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