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oaksoft

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oaksoft last won the day on March 22

oaksoft had the most liked content!

About oaksoft

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    It's Doctor Oaky to you
  • Birthday January 3

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    Tony Fitzpatrick

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  1. I am not wasting my time discussing any of this with you. I honestly thought I'd made that clear before. Go and bore someone else with your inability to understand numbers.
  2. Well that's Andy banned from Pie and Bovril for posting a link to a white supremacist website and dismissing the total collapse of the Italian health service as nothing more than "just another flu season". Like I said earlier, there's no talking to this type of person.
  3. You are the leader of them and I didn't say I wanted them to be affected by it. Try f**king reading before you open your mouth. Two weeks ago you were wittering on about not understanding why I was using Italy as a comparison. I said we were heading for Italy daily death numbers and were a fortnight behind them. Today we are right on where Italy were but you are still wittering on about me over-reacting. There's no talking to you. I'm certainly not entertaining your opinion about my graphs. I couldn't care less if you don't understand them. My graphs were qualitatively good enough right up until the lockdown finally kicked in and the trend started to become linear. The predictions will need to change because of that. If the linear trend remains as it is we've potentially bought ourselves another 3 weeks before we hit thousands of deaths per day. The picture will continue to change. The crucial point is whether we can flatten that curve before the NHS is overcome and right now we're on a knife edge. It could go either way. I don't care if you don't understand that either.
  4. And on Pie and Bovril you are complaining about people chucking this sort of abuse at you. Tut tut! What a hypocrite.
  5. It seems pretty clear that a stubborn minority are simply not taking this situation seriously and seem determined to underplay it. Maybe it'll need to start affecting their families before things might start to sink in. As for Andy, perhaps he can explain why he's on Pie and Bovril claiming that Sweden are doing the right thing because they are asking people to self isolate and perform social distancing whilst at the same time saying the UK is doing the wrong thing because self-isolation and social distancing are "proven not to work". That's right. He's arguing both sides at the same time. He won't answer the question on there. Perhaps he can do it here?
  6. Despite the disastrous number of deaths today at over 700, it's beginning to look like the lockdown is finally having an impact on daily deaths. Whilst the overall trend from 15th February is still exponential, the recent trend of the last week in isolation has now moved to linear. If that continues, that will have a dramatic effect on the keeping a lid on the daily death numbers. It might slow it down enough for us to avoid overwhelming the NHS and tipping us into the thousands of deaths per day. A small chink of light appearing maybe. Next week is crucial. Rather than posting two graphs for the possibilities - exponential and linear - I'll wait until next weekend to see which trend becomes more prevalent.
  7. It only shows up once on the post itself. If he likes your post then unlikes it again then likes it again it will send you 2 "like" notifications. It used to be the way to really piss someone off on here - like their post 48 times to fill up their notifications list.
  8. From memory, it's a two man job. Get as much butter in there as you can. Then masturbate to get them as empty as possible to reduce their size. Then you need a friend to talk to you to distract you whilst they suddenly and without warning yank the bottle free. If that fails 3 times then it's Mr Hammer I'm afraid.
  9. Why waste our time cutting and pasting other people's thoughts? Add some value and let's hear your own opinions.
  10. That's not how it works. You're the one criticising all of this. It's up to you to explain the errors in their model and the flaws in their subsequent strategy. It's called having an original thought of your own. You should try it. The world doesn't need yet another whining f**kwit who only has the ability to cut and paste the opinions of others.
  11. Oops! That should have read 2 days. We could well be hitting Italy's daily death rates by the Friday.
  12. The data, in terms of daily deaths, is as credible as it can be and comes from worldometer and the references they list there. The problem is that people expect too much from science. They want certainty but science can't give them that. I don't want to insult your intelligence here so if you know this then ignore me when I tell you the following. Scientists work at the very edge of what is currently known about the world we live in. To know what is happening exactly is impossible because there are an infinite and unknowable number of variables which affect everything that happens from quantum mechanical effects through to planets moving through space. Then you have coupling between those variables - they affect each other. You can't hope to model any of it exactly. It's accepted as an intractable problem. Science then tries to develop approximate systems to model things because we still need to develop some kind of feel for what is going on. Governments want to know when covid will peak in the UK. Only scientists can attempt to answer this. Nobody else has the ability to do this. So we build approximate model and try to capture the most important variables, we publish our model, the approximations and the results which come from the model. We attempt to interpret the results to the best of our abilities based on the model and taking the approximations into account. Very few scientists will commit to the level of certainty demanded by society because we know we simply can't be exact with any of it. Our results are couched in phrases such as "likely", "perhaps", "potentially" etc. You won't find a scientists worth his salt who will claim he has an exact answer to anything. It sounds like we're being coy, unwilling to risk our reputations but we're not. We simply cannot give any more accuracy than our models tell us. Other scientists then look at our model, perhaps find better variables and come up with a new and improved model and the first model is either discarded or downgraded or improved and the cycle begins again. So the big problem in computational modelling is knowing what the numbers coming out of the calculation are telling you. Most importantly we need to understand what they are NOT telling us. So how do we know what models are right? It's certainly not about who provides the model. Most astronomical discoveries are found by amateurs for example. It's down to an understanding of the model itself and what you are trying to say about the results. The model needs to closely match any known data and then it needs to predict the future and be checked against that as new data comes in. If it can do that (as my very rough model has done) then it is considered a valid model. The Imperial scientists are trying to work out when this thing will flatline and die away and they need to justify why their model will give them that information. My model is simply to observe where the current trend is heading in a general sense. For comparison, the Imperial guys apparently said the peak will be 260 deaths in then UK by 5th April. My model predicts we'd be into the thousands by then unless something breaks in our favour. Anyway, I hope that gives you a bit of a taste for how science works (assuming you didn't already know) and why each new model makes different predictions from old models. People don't like this uncertainty but that's all science can give you. It's not called the bleeding edge for nothing. As for my predictions? My trend has held pretty solidly since 15th Feb and at this point it's only predicting 40 deaths above reality. I'm surprised it's held up for so long give how rough it is. Obviously individual data points will not hit the exact line but apart from a couple of points, everything is sticking reasonably close to the trendline. As I said to TPAK. We are in deep shit now unless something changes very fast. We could be overtaking Spain and Italy in the next few days for daily deaths and that is an absolutely horrific thought.
  13. To be honest, I think you'd be better using graphs from official sources as it would stop a lot of folk questioning the veracity of the graphs. Not the trolls obviously, but the sensible folk who appreciate quality information at this time, even if it's not the answers they want to read. My graph comes from the data in worldometer and the sources they use are listed on that site so it's perfectly credible. All I've done is copy and paste the data to allow me to fit a trendline to it. The trendline I've stuck on the data has to be mine because nobody else is using this method. The predictions have to be my own because they are based on that trendline. The source data is credible though. I said a couple of weeks ago that we were 2 weeks behind Italy. We are now only about 12 days behind them. Unfortunately we are catching them up. What's interesting is that we seem to see reductions in daily deaths at the end of every weekend followed by a compensating rise back onto the exponential trend again. I'm not sure what's causing that but presumably it's because people are less likely to travel to work those days. Either way, the numbers are now rising very fast and we are probably only a few days from serious trouble unless something kicks in. As for the trolls. They are not worth the effort but anyone continuing to play this down after this week's figures needs to be put on ignore.
  14. Largely offline enjoying the first day of spring. I'd recommend it to others. I'm not Baz and I'm not getting drawn into dozens of pages of defensive arguments so I'll make this brief. I've had my say on this issue, posted my graphs and predictions, which I will continue to update when trends change and I've nothing much more to add other than the following. There are 3 groups who've read my posts on this. Group 1 consists of people who at least grasp what I am trying to do with my graphs and predictions. This groups includes cockles, w6er TPAK thing and maybe one or two others that I've forgotten. Not one of us is sitting hoping my numbers are accurate. Our parents and loved ones are as much at risk of this f**king thing as everyone else's and we like to have a feel for when things MIGHT get very risky for them. I'll update as the trend changes. Happy to answer questions from this group. Group 2 consists of those who have no demonstrable understanding of computational modelling whatsoever and have no serious alternatives to provide but despite this they are strangely over-confident in their criticism. I think they are in denial but that's their right. On this issue, I have no interest in wasting my time trying to change the minds of closed minded people. You are in this group with slarti, antrin and the f**kwit Biology teacher @FTOFwho, since he no longer has a job at the moment teaching kids to the test, has decided he wants to persuade us that overnight he has become an expert in all things to do with genetics. He only has a partial foot in this group though. Group 3 consists of people who are too stupid to engage with or deliberately lie and misrepresent things as fact when they are not and there really is no point engaging with them at all. shull, Dickson, hiram and a small number of others are in this group. @FTOF has the rest of his feet in this group as well.
  15. That is an utterly ridiculous conclusion. Everyone is trying to use this data. Currently, it's the best we have to work with until you, Dicky and the teacher slap some arses and get those experts working properly. In the real world, you don't just down tools because everything isn't perfect. You work with what you've got and repeatedly state "this is our best guess using this model and this data". The world experts are no more immune to this dirty data than I am. Now, FFS stop wasting time posting here and get on a plane.
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