Coronavirus

[Hiram Abiff]

The US television station CBS was caught using footage from an Italian intensive care unit in a piece on the current situation in New York. In fact, dozens of recordings by citizen journalists show that it is currently very quiet in the hospitals on the US East and West Coast. Even the „corpse refrigerator trucks“ prominently shown in the media are unused and empty.

Contrary to media reports, the register of German intensive care units also shows no increased occupancy. Citizen journalists visited completely abandoned Covid19 admission centres in Berlin clinics. An employee of a Munich clinic explained that they had been „waiting for weeks for the wave to hit“, but that there was „no increase in patient numbers“. He said that the politicians‘ statements did not correspond with their own experience, and that the „myth of the killer virus“ could „not be confirmed“.

Also in Swiss clinics, no increased occupancy has been observed so far. A visitor to the cantonal hospital in Lucerne reports that there is „less activity than in normal times“. Entire floors have been closed for Covid19, but staff „are still waiting for patients“. The hospitals in Bern, Basel, Zug and Zurich have also been „cleaned out“. Even in Ticino, the intensive care units are not working to capacity, but patients are now being transferred to the empty German-Swiss departments. From a purely medical point of view, this makes little sense.

[faraway saint]

Italian fatalities have pretty much flattened out over the last 12 days at an average of 760.

Oaky has predicted the UK will be over 3,000 a day within a week. 

 

[faraway saint]

5 minutes ago, Hiram Abiff said:

The US television station CBS was caught using footage from an Italian intensive care unit in a piece on the current situation in New York. In fact, dozens of recordings by citizen journalists show that it is currently very quiet in the hospitals on the US East and West Coast. Even the „corpse refrigerator trucks“ prominently shown in the media are unused and empty.

Contrary to media reports, the register of German intensive care units also shows no increased occupancy. Citizen journalists visited completely abandoned Covid19 admission centres in Berlin clinics. An employee of a Munich clinic explained that they had been „waiting for weeks for the wave to hit“, but that there was „no increase in patient numbers“. He said that the politicians‘ statements did not correspond with their own experience, and that the „myth of the killer virus“ could „not be confirmed“.

Also in Swiss clinics, no increased occupancy has been observed so far. A visitor to the cantonal hospital in Lucerne reports that there is „less activity than in normal times“. Entire floors have been closed for Covid19, but staff „are still waiting for patients“. The hospitals in Bern, Basel, Zug and Zurich have also been „cleaned out“. Even in Ticino, the intensive care units are not working to capacity, but patients are now being transferred to the empty German-Swiss departments. From a purely medical point of view, this makes little sense.

Gies a brek, you're drowning the thread.

Anybody that's interested gets your point, repeating it a hunner times disnae help, ya roaster. 

[Hiram Abiff]

On the situation in Italy

Italian doctors reported that they had already observed severe cases of pneumonia in northern Italy at the end of last year. However, genetic analyses now show that the Covid19 virus only appeared in Italy in January of this year. „The severe pneumonia diagnosed in Italy in November and December must therefore be due to a different pathogen,“ a virologist noted. This once again raises the question what role the Covid19 virus, or other factors, actually play in the Italian situation.

On March 30, we mentioned the list of Italian doctors who died „during the Corona crisis“, many of whom were up to 90 years old and didn’t actively participate in the crisis at all. Today, all years of birth on the list have been removed (see however the last archive version). A strange procedure.

We have also received the following message from an observer in Italy, who gives further details about the dramatic situation there, which is obviously due to far more than a virus:

„In recent weeks, most of the Eastern European nurses who worked 24 hours a day, 7 days a week supporting people in need of care in Italy have left the country in a hurry. This is not least because of the panic-mongering and the curfews and border closures threatened by the „emergency governments“. As a result, old people in need of care and disabled people, some without relatives, were left helpless by their carers.

Many of these abandoned people then ended up after a few days in the hospitals, which had been permanently overloaded for years, because they were dehydrated, among other things. Unfortunately, the hospitals lacked the personnel who had to look after the children locked up in their apartments because schools and kindergartens had been closed. This then led to the complete collapse of the care for the disabled and the elderly, especially in those areas where even harder „measures“ were ordered, and to chaotic conditions.

The nursing emergency, which was caused by the panic, temporarily led to many deaths among those in need of care and increasingly among younger patients in the hospitals. These fatalities then served to cause even more panic among those in charge and the media, who reported, for example, „another 475 fatalities“, „The dead are being removed from hospitals by the army“, accompanied by pictures of coffins and army trucks lined up.

However, this was the result of the funeral directors‘ fear of the „killer virus“, who therefore refused their services. Moreover, on the one hand there were too many deaths at once and on the other hand the government passed a law that the corpses carrying the coronavirus had to be cremated. In Catholic Italy, few cremations had been carried out in the past. Therefore there were only a few small crematoria, which very quickly reached their limits. Therefore the deceased had to be laid out in different churches.

In principle, this development is the same in all countries. However, the quality of the health system has a considerable influence on the effects. Therefore, there are fewer problems in Germany, Austria or Switzerland than in Italy, Spain or the USA. However, as can be seen in the official figures, there is no significant increase in the mortality rate. Just a small mountain that came from this tragedy.“

[Hiram Abiff]

The president of the German Robert Koch Institute confirmed again that pre-existing conditions and actual cause of death do not play a role in the definition of so-called „corona deaths“. From a medical point of view, such a definition is clearly misleading. It has the obvious and generally known effect of putting politics and society in fear.
In Italy the situation is now beginning to calm down. As far as is known, the temporarily increased mortality rates (65+) were rather local effects, often accompanied by mass panic and a breakdown in health care. A politician from northern Italy asks, for example, „how is it possible that Covid patients from Brescia are transported to Germany, while in the nearby Verona two thirds of intensive care beds are empty?“
In an article published in the European Journal of Clinical Investigation, Stanford professor of medicine John C. Ioannidis criticizes the „harms of exaggerated information and non-evidence-based measures“. Even journals had published dubious claims at the beginning.
A Chinese study published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology in early March, which indicated the unreliability of the Covid19 virus tests (approx. 50% false-positive results in asymptomatic patients), has since been withdrawn. The lead author of the study, the dean of a medical school, did not want to give the reason for the withdrawal and spoke of a „sensitive matter„, which could indicate political pressure, as an NPR journalist noted. Independent of this study, however, the unreliability of so-called PCR virus tests has long been known: In 2006, for example, a mass infection in a Canadian nursing home with SARS corona viruses was „found“, which later turned out to be common cold corona viruses (which can also be fatal for risk groups).
Authors of the German Risk Management Network RiskNET speak in a Covid19 analysis of a „blind flight“ as well as „insufficient data competence and data ethics“. Instead of more and more tests and measures a representative sample is necessary. The „sense and ratio“ of the measures must be critically questioned.
The Spanish interview with the internationally renowned Argentinian-French virologist Pablo Goldschmidt was translated into German. Goldschmidt considers the measures imposed to be medically counterproductive and notes that one must now „read Hannah Arendt“ to understand the „origins of totalitarianism“.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, like other prime ministers and presidents before him, has largely disempowered the Hungarian parliament under an „emergency law“ and can now govern essentially by decree.

[Hiram Abiff]

Oops! That should have read 2 days. We could well be hitting Italy's daily death rates by the Friday.

Death rates of what though?

And what is the excess of mortality?

People who are dying can contract coronavirus just the same as the living.

[faraway saint]

3 minutes ago, Hiram Abiff said:

 

Death rates of what though?

And what is the excess of mortality?

People who are dying can contract coronavirus just the same as the living.

 

He's unable to answer so he calls people trolls, his get out clause.

Now, GIVE US A FECKING REST. 

[shull]

38 minutes ago, Hiram Abiff said:

The US television station CBS was caught using footage from an Italian intensive care unit in a piece on the current situation in New York. In fact, dozens of recordings by citizen journalists show that it is currently very quiet in the hospitals on the US East and West Coast. Even the „corpse refrigerator trucks“ prominently shown in the media are unused and empty.

Contrary to media reports, the register of German intensive care units also shows no increased occupancy. Citizen journalists visited completely abandoned Covid19 admission centres in Berlin clinics. An employee of a Munich clinic explained that they had been „waiting for weeks for the wave to hit“, but that there was „no increase in patient numbers“. He said that the politicians‘ statements did not correspond with their own experience, and that the „myth of the killer virus“ could „not be confirmed“.

Also in Swiss clinics, no increased occupancy has been observed so far. A visitor to the cantonal hospital in Lucerne reports that there is „less activity than in normal times“. Entire floors have been closed for Covid19, but staff „are still waiting for patients“. The hospitals in Bern, Basel, Zug and Zurich have also been „cleaned out“. Even in Ticino, the intensive care units are not working to capacity, but patients are now being transferred to the empty German-Swiss departments. From a purely medical point of view, this makes little sense.

And picked up a guy from that massive Hospital in Govan an hour ago.

He was visiting his wife and thought the Hospital would be a madhouse with all the carry on.

" Like a Ghost Town " he said . He was amazed. Plenty empty rooms available.

Maybe a mystery (fake ) Virus has wiped the whole of Govan out.

[W6er]

3 hours ago, oaksoft said:

The data, in terms of daily deaths, is as credible as it can be and comes from worldometer and the references they list there.

The problem is that people expect too much from science.

They want certainty but science can't give them that.

I don't want to insult your intelligence here so if you know this then ignore me when I tell you the following.

Scientists work at the very edge of what is currently known about the world we live in. To know what is happening exactly is impossible because there are an infinite and unknowable number of variables which affect everything that happens from quantum mechanical effects through to planets moving through space. Then you have coupling between those variables - they affect each other.

You can't hope to model any of it exactly. It's accepted as an intractable problem. Science then tries to develop approximate systems to model things because we still need to develop some kind of feel for what is going on. Governments want to know when covid will peak in the UK. Only scientists can attempt to answer this. Nobody else has the ability to do this. So we build approximate model and try to capture the most important variables, we publish our model, the approximations and the results which come from the model. We attempt to interpret the results to the best of our abilities based on the model and taking the approximations into account. Very few scientists will commit to the level of certainty demanded by society because we know we simply can't be exact with any of it. Our results are couched in phrases such as "likely", "perhaps", "potentially" etc. You won't find a scientists worth his salt who will claim he has an exact answer to anything. It sounds like we're being coy, unwilling to risk our reputations but we're not. We simply cannot give any more accuracy than our models tell us. Other scientists then look at our model, perhaps find better variables and come up with a new and improved model and the first model is either discarded or downgraded or improved and the cycle begins again.

So the big problem in computational modelling is knowing what the numbers coming out of the calculation are telling you. Most importantly we need to understand what they are NOT telling us.

So how do we know what models are right? It's certainly not about who provides the model. Most astronomical discoveries are found by amateurs for example. It's down to an understanding of the model itself and what you are trying to say about the results. The model needs to closely match any known data and then it needs to predict the future and be checked against that as new data comes in. If it can do that (as my very rough model has done) then it is considered a valid model. The Imperial scientists are trying to work out when this thing will flatline and die away and they need to justify why their model will give them that information. My model is simply to observe where the current trend is heading in a general sense. For comparison, the Imperial guys apparently said the peak will be 260 deaths in then UK by 5th April. My model predicts we'd be into the thousands by then unless something breaks in our favour.

Anyway, I hope that gives you a bit of a taste for how science works (assuming you didn't already know) and why each new model makes different predictions from old models. People don't like this uncertainty but that's all science can give you. It's not called the bleeding edge for nothing.

As for my predictions? My trend has held pretty solidly since 15th Feb and at this point it's only predicting 40 deaths above reality. I'm surprised it's held up for so long give how rough it is. Obviously individual data points will not hit the exact line but apart from a couple of points, everything is sticking reasonably close to the trendline.

As I said to TPAK. We are in deep shit now unless something changes very fast. We could be overtaking Spain and Italy in the next few days for daily deaths and that is an absolutely horrific thought.

Thanks for taking the trouble to write such a comprehensive reply, Oaky. I genuinely appreciate your efforts. 

[Hiram Abiff]

And picked up a guy from that massive Hospital in Govan an hour ago.
He was visiting his wife and thought the Hospital would be a madhouse with all the carry on.
" Like a Ghost Town " he said . He was amazed. Plenty empty rooms available.
Maybe a mystery (fake ) Virus has wiped the whole of Govan out.

Heard today from someone who was at the RAH that he’s never seen it so empty

Yet the death count we’re giving out each day is now higher than it was in Italy when it all went mad.

Reports from Italy now saying that the panic itself caused the health system to collapse in certain areas and which has caused more deaths than the virus itself.

[Guest TPAFKATS]

Death rates of what though?

And what is the excess of mortality?

People who are dying can contract coronavirus just the same as the living.

People who are dying are still living you sociopathic twat.

[Hiram Abiff]

Confirms what I’ve been hearing about hospitals here

[Hiram Abiff]

People who are dying are still living you sociopathic twat.

Thanks for the info you sociopathic fascist [emoji106]

[shull]

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-woman-fined-650-for-refusing-to-tell-police-why-she-was-out-11966813

[faraway saint]

9 minutes ago, shull said:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-woman-fined-650-for-refusing-to-tell-police-why-she-was-out-11966813

Fcuk her. 

[GMan]

4 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

Fcuk her. 

There's a good chance I already have. 

[faraway saint]

Just now, GMan said:

There's a good chance I already have. 

Unlikely, if it was a gay man, more likely. 

[shull]

 

[shull]

 

[eastlandssaint]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-uk-news-latest-deaths-tests-flights-nhs-ventilators/

[Guest TPAFKATS]

#BK

Yesterday it was Shetland he was trying to hold up as an example of unnecessary social distancing.
That'll be the same Shetland islands that had a cluster of confirmed cases.

[Guest TPAFKATS]

Thanks for the info you sociopathic fascist [emoji106]

What happened to you in your life that made you so uncaring for the well being of other humans?

You display all the warmth of a penguin's cock.

[Guest TPAFKATS]

2 yesterday and 1 today. "a cluster" - more like a household. 
You're a twat

No Stuart, you are the twat. Its not about yesterday or today, its about Shetland having a cluster of cases a week or two back. I wonder how that happened, could it be due to lots of people travelling in and out of the islands on a regular basis?

This is why we have social distancing, to prevent it spreading. It's shouldn't be too difficult to understand this even for a contrary twat like you.

[Bud the Baker]

On the Conspiracy Theory front,  I was just watching BBC Breakfast with Tesco saying it would be helpful to get a list of people with debilitating conditions so that they could be prioritised for home delivery - doubly dubious as they also sell Insurance.

For me one of the worse aspects of the current situation is the obvious spread of paranoia - you just don't know which to put on first your tinfoil hat or your face mask

Spoiler

. Actually that's obvious it's face mask first to stop the elastic in the mask from stretching. 😷

 

[Guest TPAFKATS]

On the Conspiracy Theory front,  I was just watching BBC Breakfast with Tesco saying it would be helpful to get a list of people with debilitating conditions so that they could be prioritised for home delivery - doubly dubious as they also sell Insurance.
For me one of the worse aspects of the current situation is the obvious spread of paranoia - you just don't know which to put on first your tinfoil hat or your face mask
Spoiler

. Actually that's obvious it's face mask first to stop the elastic in the mask from stretching. [emoji40]

 

The boss of Iceland was on ITN last night saying they've the government fir a list of those who need help with shopping so they can prioritise them.

Still waiting.