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Just spoken to someone who was in the RAH today. Describes it as being “empty”. Never seen it so empty was his description.

Yet I would have expected the NHS to be at breaking point by now. Where are all the TV pictures of chaos in UK hospitals?

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Here's what a professor of medicine thinks. He's an ex director at WHO with 50 years oncology experience. He's also chief medical officer of Rutherford Health. I wonder if he, or indeed the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine who quotes bothered to consult with any sociopathic trolls on a football forum though? Screenshot_20200401_141632.jpeg

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Scandalous if this is the reality...
image.jpeg.45cf1b2d312a35657d25ec3eee036cd1.jpeg


I was in Asda last night.

It was like Halloween. People going about dressed as surgeons.

It’s little surprise the NHS don’t have all the gear they need to protect against this over exaggerated flu pandemic.

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8 minutes ago, TPAFKATS said:

Oh dear...
Let's break your post down.
First sentence you intimate that my post is false as you don't have the ability to find out what flights are arriving into any airport.

Second sentence you post an example of what you claim is a control being used for passengers on flights that your first sentence said you had no evidence were actually happening.

In your rush to try and score points against me, you appear to have made an utter twat of yourself (again).

If you like.

I wouldn't trust anything you post.

TBH your opinion doesn't count as you don't have any interest in the human aspect of this, you're too busy in your bitter, soulless world trying to score political points.

Now, as I suggested some time ago, why don't you f**k off and live somewhere else. 👋👋👋

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Love to see the knowledge you guys have on this ,virus that is baffling world leaders and experts, to think they just had to log into BAWA to get all the answers from the fountains of knowledge on here. My god even could have saved the 4 trillion in World Aid by the govts
 
Thanks for confirming...………..
Please contact GOV.UK and let them know that they are overreacting


Amazing how the public now unquestioningly believe everything that Boris and his far right fascist regime now tell them.

Amazing how they now believe everything the mainstream media tell them.

The compliant unquestioning masses now happy to fall in line and dutifully obey their fuhrer.

The folk putting their heads above the parapets to question this will grow as the days go by.

Unlike you, not everyone is happy with the fascist jackboot controlling their lives.

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If you like.
I wouldn't trust anything you post.
TBH your opinion doesn't count as you don't have any interest in the human aspect of this, you're too busy in your bitter, soulless world trying to score political points.
Now, as I suggested some time ago, why don't you f**k off and live somewhere else.
I only responded to you responding to my post. So actually you've just proved once again that my opinion obviously counts to you.

It's my human interest in this that makes me respond to the untruths and pettiness from you and the two other trolls.

Your having a 'mare today, even by your standards.

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563 deaths in hospital yesterday confirmed by latest Dept of Health update.

 

Remember most of these will be from contracting the virus prior to "lock down" beginning

 

Still, some trolls on here will tell you it's not serious just because they can't go dogging.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TPAFKATS said:

I only responded to you responding to my post. So actually you've just proved once again that my opinion obviously counts to you.

It's my human interest in this that makes me respond to the untruths and pettiness from you and the two other trolls.

Your having a 'mare today, even by your standards.

Pointing and laughing at you doesn't prove your opinion counts. 😂😂😂

Run along, you must be struggling to find something about the government today to whine about.

Now, fcuk off, you're having a nightmare again. 😂😂😂

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I don't have any problem with people highlighting the fact that we have a reactionary right-wing government who have gone over the top in terms of the measures that have been introduced.  The fact that Boris thinks this way but is still to weak to go all out on the enforcement is also worrying as we might lose him and get someone like Govebels replacing him.

What I do have a problem is that certain people are purporting this virus to be of no more importance than seasonal flu.  i'll take the word of front line medical staff at the end of their tether when faced with the death and suffering they need to deal with over that of an online goofball messing around stats and selected quotations

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563 deaths in hospital yesterday confirmed by latest Dept of Health update.

 

Remember most of these will be from contracting the virus prior to "lock down" beginning

 

Still, some trolls on here will tell you it's not serious just because they can't go dogging.

 

 

 

I detect a shocking amount of glee in this post. It’s disgusting that someone would use an increase in deaths to score points on a football forum.

 

Tells you all you need to know about this particular sociopath.

 

How many of these deaths were in excess of the number of people who normally die?

 

Remember these are people who have died WITH cornonavirus, not necessarily OF coronavirus.

 

People who are dying can contract coronavirus just as well as the living!

 

This is yet another example of the unquestioning compliant masses blindly lapping up information from Boris’ far right fascist police state.

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I don't have any problem with people highlighting the fact that we have a reactionary right-wing government who have gone over the top in terms of the measures that have been introduced.  The fact that Boris thinks this way but is still to weak to go all out on the enforcement is also worrying as we might lose him and get someone like Govebels replacing him.

What I do have a problem is that certain people are purporting this virus to be of no more importance than seasonal flu.  i'll take the word of front line medical staff at the end of their tether when faced with the death and suffering they need to deal with over that of an online goofball messing around stats and selected quotations

 

“goofball” ?

 

That’s hilarious

 

Have you ever considered a career in stand up comedy?

 

I’ll take the actual facts over your baseless post if you don’t mind.

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Just now, Slartibartfast said:

To be fair, this lockdown and "working" from home lark is letting me get paid while getting on with some decorating. It's not all bad. emoji38.png

Where did you get paint and stuff?

I tried looting B&Q last night, fecking steel shutters wouldn't budge.

I'm looking at local suppliers tonight. 

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563 deaths in hospital yesterday confirmed by latest Dept of Health update.

 

Remember most of these will be from contracting the virus prior to "lock down" beginning

 

Still, some trolls on here will tell you it's not serious just because they can't go dogging.

 

 

 

Making a joke about dogging in the same post regarding 563 deaths has actually got to be up there with the worst of this guy’s usual vile posts.

 

He’s made misogynistic and homophobic comments and jokes in the past but this sinks to new depths.

 

It’s pretty sad.

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Pointing and laughing at you doesn't prove your opinion counts.
Run along, you must be struggling to find something about the government today to whine about.
Now, fcuk off, you're having a nightmare again.
UK Gov minister admits that most arriving from Italy and New York will not be tested and will simply go into the wider community.

But faraway saint claimed otherwise just to have a pop at me. What an utter trolling sad c**tScreenshot_20200401_145810.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, TPAFKATS said:

UK Gov minister admits that most arriving from Italy and New York will not be tested and will simply go into the wider community.

But faraway saint claimed otherwise just to have a pop at me. What an utter trolling sad c**tScreenshot_20200401_145810.jpeg

It said most, not all? 

You're having a nightmare with all that anger, making you look like a fool, do you live in Stirling? 

Remember you told us lots of other European countries paid more than 80% when they lost their jobs? 

Another sad attempt to minimise the surprisingly generous payment from the UK government.

Run along, you sad cnut. :lol:

I like this name calling game. 

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13 minutes ago, TPAFKATS said:

UK Gov minister admits that most arriving from Italy and New York will not be tested and will simply go into the wider community.

But faraway saint claimed otherwise just to have a pop at me. What an utter trolling sad c**tScreenshot_20200401_145810.jpeg

You'd have to thought Italy have closed their airports, surely? 

To save you Googling, how you get through your day without searching the internet is beyond me, they are still taking incoming flights.

And, wait for it, LOTS of other countries are taking flights from Italy. 

Imagine that, UK bad, everywhere else good.

You're having a nightmare. 

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31 minutes ago, Hiram Abiff said:

 

“goofball” ?

 

That’s hilarious

 

Have you ever considered a career in stand up comedy?

 

I’ll take the actual facts over your baseless post if you don’t mind.

Like you, I have clearly never considered a stand-up career

I wasn't specifically targeting you or replying to a particular post, but did consider that you'd be first onto it when I made the post.  Thanks for not disappointing.

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On 3/29/2020 at 8:39 PM, TPAFKATS said:
On 3/29/2020 at 6:57 PM, oaksoft said:
Largely offline enjoying the first day of spring. I'd recommend it to others.
I'm not Baz and I'm not getting drawn into dozens of pages of defensive arguments so I'll make this brief. I've had my say on this issue, posted my graphs and predictions, which I will continue to update when trends change and I've nothing much more to add other than the following.
There are 3 groups who've read my posts on this.
Group 1 consists of people who at least grasp what I am trying to do with my graphs and predictions. This groups includes cockles, w6er TPAK thing and maybe one or two others that I've forgotten. Not one of us is sitting hoping my numbers are accurate. Our parents and loved ones are as much at risk of this f**king thing as everyone else's and we like to have a feel for when things MIGHT get very risky for them. I'll update as the trend changes. Happy to answer questions from this group.
Group 2 consists of those who have no demonstrable understanding of computational modelling whatsoever and have no serious alternatives to provide but despite this they are strangely over-confident in their criticism. I think they are in denial but that's their right.  On this issue, I have no interest in wasting my time trying to change the minds of closed minded people. You are in this group with slarti, antrin and the f**kwit Biology teacher [mention=5]FTOF[/mention]who, since he no longer has a job at the moment teaching kids to the test, has decided he wants to persuade us that overnight he has become an expert in all things to do with genetics. emoji38.png He only has a partial foot in this group though.
Group 3 consists of people who are too stupid to engage with or deliberately lie and misrepresent things as fact when they are not and there really is no point engaging with them at all. shull, Dickson, hiram and a small number of others are in this group.@FTOF has the rest of his feet in this group as well.
 

To be honest, I think you'd be better using graphs from official sources as it would stop a lot of folk questioning the veracity of the graphs. Not the trolls obviously, but the sensible folk who appreciate quality information at this time, even if it's not the answers they want to read.

My graph comes from the data in worldometer and the sources they use are listed on that site so it's perfectly credible. All I've done is copy and paste the data to allow me to fit a trendline to it. The trendline I've stuck on the data has to be mine because nobody else is using this method. The predictions have to be my own because they are based on that trendline. The source data is credible though.

I said a couple of weeks ago that we were 2 weeks behind Italy. We are now only about 12 days behind them. Unfortunately we are catching them up.

What's interesting is that we seem to see reductions in daily deaths at the end of every weekend followed by a compensating rise back onto the exponential trend again. I'm not sure what's causing that but presumably it's because people are less likely to travel to work those days.

Either way, the numbers are now rising very fast and we are probably only a few days from serious trouble unless something kicks in.

As for the trolls. They are not worth the effort but anyone continuing to play this down after this week's figures needs to be put on ignore.

Edited by oaksoft

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12 minutes ago, Dickson said:

Andy, who you have likened to Aldolf Hitler in some of your bizarre rants, has done nothing but cite medical expert opinion. He's clearly looking for, and finding a vast range of opinions that he is presenting to back his case. I am critical of Scotland going into a lock down situation at least TWO WEEKS before we should have done because the Scottish Government were spooked by figures coming from 400 miles away and they've made an irrational choice. My opinion has come from reading what experts in social modelling have been saying about trying to enforce a draconian lock down of society for too long a period of time - a view that the chief medical advisor appeared to be coming round to at the end of last week when she started talking, on camera, about Scotland needing to make "bespoke" choices. 

Your problem Doug, like so many others, is that you have formed your opinion based on the political choices of a leader you back and as a result you'll ONLY listen to medical and expert opinion that backs up the decisions they have made. 

Lessons from history show that it is people with YOUR kind of attitude who took parts of the world to extreme political positions. Andy is challenging and prompting others to read the evidence and to make their own judgements and opinions. You just want us all to blindly and unquestioningly follow your political leader. 

If, for one second, I thought that Andy was taking in a broad range of views and putting forward a balanced opinion then I could buy that.  

Some of what he says is right, it's the mischief making that spoils it.  He even had a go at me for partially agreeing with him

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On 3/29/2020 at 9:46 PM, W6er said:

 

 

So long as the data is accurate, it doesn't matter who composes the graph. Though I'm quite happy to read anybody's projections and opinions on the matter, to be honest. 

The data, in terms of daily deaths, is as credible as it can be and comes from worldometer and the references they list there.

The problem is that people expect too much from science.

They want certainty but science can't give them that.

I don't want to insult your intelligence here so if you know this then ignore me when I tell you the following.

Scientists work at the very edge of what is currently known about the world we live in. To know what is happening exactly is impossible because there are an infinite and unknowable number of variables which affect everything that happens from quantum mechanical effects through to planets moving through space. Then you have coupling between those variables - they affect each other.

You can't hope to model any of it exactly. It's accepted as an intractable problem. Science then tries to develop approximate systems to model things because we still need to develop some kind of feel for what is going on. Governments want to know when covid will peak in the UK. Only scientists can attempt to answer this. Nobody else has the ability to do this. So we build approximate model and try to capture the most important variables, we publish our model, the approximations and the results which come from the model. We attempt to interpret the results to the best of our abilities based on the model and taking the approximations into account. Very few scientists will commit to the level of certainty demanded by society because we know we simply can't be exact with any of it. Our results are couched in phrases such as "likely", "perhaps", "potentially" etc. You won't find a scientists worth his salt who will claim he has an exact answer to anything. It sounds like we're being coy, unwilling to risk our reputations but we're not. We simply cannot give any more accuracy than our models tell us. Other scientists then look at our model, perhaps find better variables and come up with a new and improved model and the first model is either discarded or downgraded or improved and the cycle begins again.

So the big problem in computational modelling is knowing what the numbers coming out of the calculation are telling you. Most importantly we need to understand what they are NOT telling us.

So how do we know what models are right? It's certainly not about who provides the model. Most astronomical discoveries are found by amateurs for example. It's down to an understanding of the model itself and what you are trying to say about the results. The model needs to closely match any known data and then it needs to predict the future and be checked against that as new data comes in. If it can do that (as my very rough model has done) then it is considered a valid model. The Imperial scientists are trying to work out when this thing will flatline and die away and they need to justify why their model will give them that information. My model is simply to observe where the current trend is heading in a general sense. For comparison, the Imperial guys apparently said the peak will be 260 deaths in then UK by 5th April. My model predicts we'd be into the thousands by then unless something breaks in our favour.

Anyway, I hope that gives you a bit of a taste for how science works (assuming you didn't already know) and why each new model makes different predictions from old models. People don't like this uncertainty but that's all science can give you. It's not called the bleeding edge for nothing.

As for my predictions? My trend has held pretty solidly since 15th Feb and at this point it's only predicting 40 deaths above reality. I'm surprised it's held up for so long give how rough it is. Obviously individual data points will not hit the exact line but apart from a couple of points, everything is sticking reasonably close to the trendline.

As I said to TPAK. We are in deep shit now unless something changes very fast. We could be overtaking Spain and Italy in the next few days for daily deaths and that is an absolutely horrific thought.

Edited by oaksoft

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1 hour ago, Hiram Abiff said:

Just spoken to someone who was in the RAH today. Describes it as being “empty”. Never seen it so empty was his description.

Yet I would have expected the NHS to be at breaking point by now. Where are all the TV pictures of chaos in UK hospitals?

No one has said the NHS in Scotland is now at breaking point, but try having that conversation in 2 weeks. I don't want to proved right here, but you truly are a fkwit… you obviously have no respect for human life , the chaos is in London Hospitals. Italian Hospitals and Spanish ones. Take it that's ok with you Nazi

Edited by DougJamie

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3 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

The numbers in Scotland seem to be rising considerably.

76 from the UK total of 2,352.

image.png.eb9b91ad9252161dde4e1f13cedd45da.png

Yes scary, 563 in UK today and it is now looking like 20000 will be way surpassed

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45 minutes ago, Dickson said:

Andy, who you have likened to Aldolf Hitler in some of your bizarre rants, has done nothing but cite medical expert opinion. He's clearly looking for, and finding a vast range of opinions that he is presenting to back his case. I am critical of Scotland going into a lock down situation at least TWO WEEKS before we should have done because the Scottish Government were spooked by figures coming from 400 miles away and they've made an irrational choice. My opinion has come from reading what experts in social modelling have been saying about trying to enforce a draconian lock down of society for too long a period of time - a view that the chief medical advisor appeared to be coming round to at the end of last week when she started talking, on camera, about Scotland needing to make "bespoke" choices. 

Your problem Doug, like so many others, is that you have formed your opinion based on the political choices of a leader you back and as a result you'll ONLY listen to medical and expert opinion that backs up the decisions they have made. 

Lessons from history show that it is people with YOUR kind of attitude who took parts of the world to extreme political positions. Andy is challenging and prompting others to read the evidence and to make their own judgements and opinions. You just want us all to blindly and unquestioningly follow your political leader. 

Preservation of life from an unknown virus is treated seriously, at some stage you and "Andy" will be impacted by this, many many families already are, so I will take my chances with experts and not a couple of fannies on a football forum...………

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On 3/28/2020 at 3:38 PM, oaksoft said:

Right, my predictions for daily deaths based on the current trend are as follows for the next week or so are:

29th Mar - 279 Fact - 209

30th Mar - 362 Fact - 180

31st Mar - 469 Fact - 381

1st Apr - 608 Fact - 563

So, at this stage, and this is taking into account the UK are now taking into account deaths in the community, which they, for some reason, were not before you made your graph, you are 1,718 against the actual 1,333, a difference of 385. (22%)

13 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

As for my predictions? My trend has held pretty solidly since 15th Feb and at this point it's only predicting 40 deaths above reality.

Where, genuinely, do you get a number of 40? 

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