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Bud the Baker

Brexit Negotiations

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On 12/7/2017 at 1:26 PM, oaksoft said:

Far more likely is that the tolerance on the results is so bad that it simply isn't possible to make meaningful conclusions.

Not one of us can be certain about what will happen after we leave the EU. IMO, impact assessments are a complete waste of time at this stage.

There are a range of things you can be certain of, but they mostly relate to changes that are unquantifiable.

But already significant numbers of financial services posts have moved to other EU countries or are scheduled to do so,  certain manufacturers have already made decision about next-gen products and production-they just aren't all telling us yet.

My money is on BREXINO being employed as a means of harm reduction.

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Cat out of the bag?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-updates-uk-leave-eu-norway-transition-terms-parliament-theresa-may-a8173076.html

Quote

The UK has already “agreed in principle” to a Norway-style Brexit transition period in which it accepts all EU rules with no power to shape them, a senior figure in Brussels has told The Independent.

A key member of the European Parliament’s Brexit team said British negotiators raised no objections to the plans, which would mean accepting free movement and customs union rules, and falling under the European Court’s jurisdiction. 

 

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12 minutes ago, saintnextlifetime said:

Sounds like initially it is a softer exit which then proceeds to a full exit . .

Whatever happens , this process will change the face of Europe and perhaps pave the way for the other countries that now want to leave. .

I guess we see things differently, I feel it chimes with my OP that the eventual deal will be on the EU's terms. 

I agree with your second point that there's probably a few other countries waiting to see what happens to us before deciding what to do themselves but IMO that's just another reason for the EU to play hardball. 

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I think whatever happens here , this is the begining of the end for the Fourth Reich the European super state , it has already reached its high tide mark and now it will recede . .

All the wee countries of Europe will go back to working together without being dictated to by Berlin Brussels and having suppressive trading law shoved down their throats. .or the Euro foisted on them for that matter . .

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13 minutes ago, saintnextlifetime said:

I think whatever happens here , this is the begining of the end for the Fourth Reich the European super state , it has already reached its high tide mark and now it will recede . .

All the wee countries of Europe will go back to working together without being dictated to by Berlin Brussels and having suppressive trading law shoved down their throats. .or the Euro foisted on them for that matter . .

All of this is fine in theory,  Neil, but sadly, any drive throughout Europe for a dissolution of the EU will be fueled largely by reactionary, right wing sentiment, as opposed to progressive attitudes to trade and social democracy.

We've already experienced that in the UK context, with a wave of gutter-media peddled anti-immigration bigotry and hyteria that the likes of Farage and the rabid right of the Tory party mobilised to further their pernicious ideologies.

I would generally consider myself ambivalent at best about many aspects of the EU machine (not least given how they f**ked over Greece), but the tone and manifestation of the whole Brexit adventure has been hugely unsavoury, and I cannot accept it as a reasonable way forward.

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19 minutes ago, Drew said:

All of this is fine in theory,  Neil, but sadly, any drive throughout Europe for a dissolution of the EU will be fueled largely by reactionary, right wing sentiment, as opposed to progressive attitudes to trade and social democracy.

We've already experienced that in the UK context, with a wave of gutter-media peddled anti-immigration bigotry and hyteria that the likes of Farage and the rabid right of the Tory party mobilised to further their pernicious ideologies.

I would generally consider myself ambivalent at best about many aspects of the EU machine (not least given how they f**ked over Greece), but the tone and manifestation of the whole Brexit adventure has been hugely unsavoury, and I cannot accept it as a reasonable way forward.

Neither reasonable or sensible!

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It has always puzzled me that if you don't like the Fourth Reich European mess than you are considered to be right-wing , in a similar vien , people used to label SNP supporters as the Tartan Tories, a bit of a generallity .  It was an individual , who I considered to be very right-wing that signed us up to Europe initially and prior to that Hugh Gaitskill , had vehemently opposed Europe(which may have led to his untimely death) even though he was left wing . .

I don't think immigration is a problem as long as people don't expect to come here and live off the state as we have enough of our own kind doing that already . In fact , the Poles and even more so the Hungarians I have met would put a lot of us to shame with their work ethic . .

Our exit from Europe (hate that other word) will go ahead , it is just a matter of how it will look in the end , but I fail to see how anyone could think that an organisation which has an unelected executive as it's top tier, is not right-wing. .

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44 minutes ago, saintnextlifetime said:

It has always puzzled me that if you don't like the Fourth Reich European mess than you are considered to be right-wing , in a similar vien , people used to label SNP supporters as the Tartan Tories, a bit of a generallity .  It was an individual , who I considered to be very right-wing that signed us up to Europe initially and prior to that Hugh Gaitskill , had vehemently opposed Europe(which may have led to his untimely death) even though he was left wing . .

I don't think immigration is a problem as long as people don't expect to come here and live off the state as we have enough of our own kind doing that already . In fact , the Poles and even more so the Hungarians I have met would put a lot of us to shame with their work ethic . .

Our exit from Europe (hate that other word) will go ahead , it is just a matter of how it will look in the end , but I fail to see how anyone could think that an organisation which has an unelected executive as it's top tier, is not right-wing. .

I think you're confusing bureaucratic and corporate with right wing. I reckon very few people outside of Brussel reckon their was not room for improvement on that issue but the Leave campaign was nasty and in the case of the £350M per week for the NHS wrong. We're leaving the EU and IMO going to be the poorer for it.

Longer term there is a problem for the left in that it has not really worked out joined up policies to tackle the corporate domination & self-service that penalises the average working slob like myself in 2018.

Edited by Bud the Baker

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44 minutes ago, saintnextlifetime said:

It has always puzzled me that if you don't like the Fourth Reich European mess than you are considered to be right-wing , in a similar vien , people used to label SNP supporters as the Tartan Tories, a bit of a generallity .  It was an individual , who I considered to be very right-wing that signed us up to Europe initially and prior to that Hugh Gaitskill , had vehemently opposed Europe(which may have led to his untimely death) even though he was left wing . .

I don't think immigration is a problem as long as people don't expect to come here and live off the state as we have enough of our own kind doing that already . In fact , the Poles and even more so the Hungarians I have met would put a lot of us to shame with their work ethic . .

Our exit from Europe (hate that other word) will go ahead , it is just a matter of how it will look in the end , but I fail to see how anyone could think that an organisation which has an unelected executive as it's top tier, is not right-wing. .

That wasn't my point. Not at all.

I was suggesting that any overall sense of scepticism surrounding the EU (something I have shared) has been hi-jacked by right wing factions. This has been apparent in the UK, and is undoubtedly evident throughout Europe. 

Anti-EU sentiment has been and will continue to be used to further some very unsavoury ideological agendas. That doesn't mean that the EU should escape very robust scrutiny and criticism. It must be radically reformed.

For a much more erudite and informed articulation of what I'm trying to get at, I would highly recommend the writing of Yanis Varoufakis on the subject.  He, as you can appreciate, is far better placed than most to apply a rigorous analysis to the subject.

 

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7 minutes ago, Drew said:

That wasn't my point. Not at all.

I was suggesting that any overall sense of scepticism surrounding the EU (something I have shared) has been hi-jacked by right wing factions. This has been apparent in the UK, and is undoubtedly evident throughout Europe. 

Anti-EU sentiment has been and will continue to be used to further some very unsavoury ideological agendas. That doesn't mean that the EU should escape very robust scrutiny and criticism. It must be radically reformed.

For a much more erudite and informed articulation of what I'm trying to get at, I would highly recommend the writing of Yanis Varoufakis on the subject.  He, as you can appreciate, is far better placed than most to apply a rigorous analysis to the subject.

 

Just never saw the point in being in Europe , Drew . Salmond has often compared Scotland to Norway , which I always thought was a good comparison since there are many similarities . They have perhaps managed things better and have managed to gain independence twice last century. .:)

I think it was better also when we traded with the Commonwealth . The fact that Edward Heath was bribed to join the Club of Rome was also wrong . I never expected our exit from the insideous scheme to be an easy one and I am aware of a pile of propaganda and political bullshit going on , most of which l manage to miss . I did catch Alistair Campbell saying we should have another vote and that we should stay in . .however in my opinion he is a bit of a c**t along with warmongering Tony who l also imagine is all for another vote. .so there are probably unsavoury characters on both sides of the argument . .

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2 minutes ago, saintnextlifetime said:

Just never saw the point in being in Europe , Drew . Salmond has often compared Scotland to Norway , which I always thought was a good comparison since there are many similarities . They have perhaps managed things better and have managed to gain independence twice last century. .:)

I think it was better also when we traded with the Commonwealth . The fact that Edward Heath was bribed to join the Club of Rome was also wrong . I never expected our exit from the insideous scheme to be an easy one and I am aware of a pile of propaganda and political bullshit going on , most of which l manage to miss . I did catch Alistair Campbell saying we should have another vote and that we should stay in . .however in my opinion he is a bit of a c**t along with warmongering Tony who l also imagine is all for another vote. .so there are probably unsavoury characters on both sides of the argument . .

I think there are plenty of benefits, but also considerable drawbacks.

The ERASMUS programme is great for young people, and, as a nation, we benefitted from numerous initiatives via EU funding that wouldn't have seen the light of day if left to rely on Westminster support and funding.

Yes, there are very significant systemic problems with the EU, but it has also, for example, enshrined human rights protections in a way that gives me greater confidence than if left to the shysters we generally have in government in the UK.

My ideal? An independent Scotland with some form of affiliation to the EU. What form this affiliation would have is up for debate.

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3 hours ago, Drew said:

I think there are plenty of benefits, but also considerable drawbacks.

The ERASMUS programme is great for young people, and, as a nation, we benefitted from numerous initiatives via EU funding that wouldn't have seen the light of day if left to rely on Westminster support and funding.

Yes, there are very significant systemic problems with the EU, but it has also, for example, enshrined human rights protections in a way that gives me greater confidence than if left to the shysters we generally have in government in the UK.

My ideal? An independent Scotland with some form of affiliation to the EU. What form this affiliation would have is up for debate.

I think our fellow countrymen will vote for a self=determined Scotland in the future , when the time comes it will be the right thing. .

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2 minutes ago, saintnextlifetime said:

I think our fellow countrymen will vote for a self=determined Scotland in the future , when the time comes it will be the right thing. .

Aye, I have faith in the generations that have come after us to do the right thing.

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8 hours ago, Bud the Baker said:

 

I guess we see things differently, I feel it chimes with my OP that the eventual deal will be on the EU's terms. 

I agree with your second point that there's probably a few other countries waiting to see what happens to us before deciding what to do themselves but IMO that's just another reason for the EU to play hardball. 

There was never any doubt that leaving would have to be done under article50 conditions. I pushed for the EFTA/EEA route out as it delivers everything the leavers wanted INCLUDING full control over who is allowed into the country.  and full curbs on the so called four freedoms the EU is built on via article 112 of the EEA treaty. That will happen regardless. Trade wont be affected in the slightest nor do we pay a single penny into the EU budget as an EFTA country.  But politically this was burned by the lying bastards in the remain campaign. They shat their load about it and so its politically "difficult" to sell it. So we have to go through the rigmarole of getting a transition deal which is exactly the same in all but name.

 

Hey ho.

 

And soft Brexit it is.

 

BTW well over 80% of the rules of the single market are now enacted at WTO level and at other world organisations. Norway get their say there long before it ever hits the EU in tray.

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Trade wont be affected in the slightest nor do we pay a single penny into the EU budget as an EFTA country.
 



Of the four EFTA members, Norway pays €115 per capita into the EU budget, Switzerland €12, Lichtenstein €40 and Iceland actually gets €25 per capita from the EU.

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