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faraway saint

Coronavirus

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49 minutes ago, Yflab said:

But he’s got a PhD. That means he is more intelligent than the rest of us peasants put together. 😂 

I’m not the only one who is noticing that there are huge numbers of covid deaths being announced despite overall mortality being normal. 
 

As can be clearly seen from the graph below, in the “second wave” (note to @oaksoft - talking about the second wave here), as covid deaths go up, deaths of other causes go down and vice versa, in sync.

 

20AA3806-E218-42AD-B8D5-CE57AD1982DA.jpeg

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The WHO have now come out with a new way of defining cases.... 

Along with the coming of spring and summer, this will drastically reduce “cases” and allow them to declare the vaccines a great success.

Without this new case definition and as we don’t know  if the vaccines will reduce transmission, the pandemic would never end and we’d have a pseudo third wave next winter. 
 

https://www.who.int/news/item/20-01-2021-who-information-notice-for-ivd-users-2020-05

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1 hour ago, rabuddies said:

I hadn't seen this report.  I expected the 1918 / 20 period to be significantly affected by the Spanish Flu epidemic given that it was believed to have been brought into the UK via the Glasgow Docks.  The Registrar General for Scotland report for 1918 recorded that 78,372 deaths (39,144 male and 39,228 female) were registered in 1918. The report confirmed that at least 17,575 deaths that year were attributable to influenza. This was probably an underestimation; some deaths were ascribed to other causes and complications due to the presence of influenza, for example, ‘bronchitis’ or ‘pneumonia’?  Perhaps this means that the "flu" killed sufficient numbers in these times for the excess not to be considered excessive>

A graph of absolute deaths per year from 1860 in Scotland below. 

2AE6418B-749A-4B3C-9098-7D65E72354D8.jpeg

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26 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

Overall mortality is normal just now baz. That is a fact. 
 

And the lockdowns you support have led to thousands of deaths so far, will lead to thousands more and have saved no-one.

On average over 1,000 deaths a day are being registered for people that have died within 28 days of a positive covid test, for 100% of those cases to be purely coincidental is an utter ridiculous claim.

For the pandemic to be "over" months ago as well, there would have to have been  1 million+ falsified/ inaccurate positive covid tests. There is no rationality behind your claim, it is clearly trolling. Be a better person and pick a different subject. 

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55 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

Overall mortality is normal just now baz. That is a fact. 
 

OK, Sue...  I'll bite.

I really can't be bothered but... in the interest of true (not fake) facts... overall mortality is NOT now normal.

I think you are comparing current covid death rates with normal death rates, which means  you are looking at chalk and cheese.  Or perhaps you're comparing the death numbers for this year against those of earlier years.  Also an invalid comparison.

I know you have been avoiding pointing out that there's a big difference between death rates and winter death rates.  And a good reason to avoid it (and thus believe in your protestations of there being nothing special happening) is because we won't know the scale of winter deaths for this year for a while yet.

The best way to compare mortality between this winter and 2017-18 (which was the most lethal on record) is look at the figs for Sep-Dec.  And this autumn has already had 15,000 more deaths than 17-18, which is surely quite abnormal...?

Perhaps when the data are fully in for Jan Feb March in 2020, (there are significant lags in deaths, their registration and then reporting) you will better, more clearly, understand just how lethal the new variant is, despite NHS becoming much more proficient at staving off deaths.

Meantime, methinks thou dost protest too much... and apart from a misplaced sense of fun, I can't see why you should persist in ignoring reality.

 

 

Edited by antrin

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1 minute ago, Kombibuddie said:
4 minutes ago, Bud the Baker said:
Boris doing the afternoon conference today & it's being heavily hinted that he'll introduce the £500 to self isolate scheme...

The test centres will be booked up till Christmas.

The argument in favour is that if it reduces spread of the virus it pays for itself.

Anyway it may be just to say not to expect the lockdown to end quickly, although I thought that's what he sent Priti "Supervillain" Patel out to do earlier in the week.

I just think Boris is a guy who prefers to dish out the good news... 

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1 hour ago, Bud the Baker said:

Boris doing the afternoon conference today & it's being heavily hinted that he'll introduce the £500 to self isolate scheme...

I can see Mobile Infection Cabs zipping about, offering “sick-jabs” for a fiver.

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2 hours ago, Bud the Baker said:

Boris doing the afternoon conference today & it's being heavily hinted that he'll introduce the £500 to self isolate scheme...

Not available for everyone, only those on low income etc.

Not the "freebie" some are suggesting.

A £500 grant, administered by local authorities and funded by the government, was made available to people on low incomes who are not able to work from home.

The same level of payment is available in Scotland and Wales with similar conditions attached. Northern Ireland offers a discretionary self-isolation grant that covers expenses, such as the cost of groceries.

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6 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

Not available for everyone, only those on low income etc.

Not the "freebie" some are suggesting.

A £500 grant, administered by local authorities and funded by the government, was made available to people on low incomes who are not able to work from home.

The same level of payment is available in Scotland and Wales with similar conditions attached. Northern Ireland offers a discretionary self-isolation grant that covers expenses, such as the cost of groceries.

 

Yeah, I obviously should have explained myself better, the speculation is that he's gonna expand the scheme to make it available to everyone to improve compliance with regards to self-isolation...

 

Quote

Everyone in England who tests positive for Covid-19 could automatically be given £500 as part of plans ministers are reportedly considering to boost quarantine compliance.

 

...presumably with funds available for rUK.

 

Covid: £500 grant ‘could be offered for positive Covid tests to incentivise quarantine’ | ITV News

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23 minutes ago, Bud the Baker said:

 

Yeah, I obviously should have explained myself better, the speculation is that he's gonna expand the scheme to make it available to everyone to improve compliance with regards to self-isolation...

 

 

...presumably with funds available for rUK.

 

Covid: £500 grant ‘could be offered for positive Covid tests to incentivise quarantine’ | ITV News

I, personally, doubt it will be available for everyone.

Government sources have firmly downplayed the idea of a universal £500 Covid payment for people in England required to self-isolate.

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3 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

I, personally, doubt it will be available for everyone.

Government sources have firmly downplayed the idea of a universal £500 Covid payment for people in England required to self-isolate.

Obviously there are competing "government sources" with different agendas...:rolleyes:

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From the NRS

75% of all the excess deaths in Scotland in 2020 occurred in the 7 week period from 30th March to 11th May

That’s when the *actual* epidemic occurred.

Lockdown * increased* the death toll

 

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Latest from EuroMOMO

EuroMOMO is a European mortality monitoring activity, aiming to detect and measure excess deaths related to seasonal influenza, pandemics and other public health threats.

Graph shows excess mortality since 2017.

I’ll explain what it shows as I know folk struggle, especially Professor Walter @oaksoft Mitty, the pretend scientist.

In the winter of 2017/18 we had a bad flu season with higher than normal mortality.

In the winters of 2018/19 and 2019/2020 there was very light winter mortality.

Covid came along in the spring of 2020 and we had an epidemic with large excess mortality. This was exacerbated by the fact that we’d had light mortality in the previous 2 winters meaning there were a lot of elderly and vulnerable people. 
 

No second wave in the winter of 2020/21. Mortality far lower than 2017/18 despite the collateral deaths caused by lockdown. Excess mortality is the gold standard for measuring an epidemic. 

A7BB3C09-C00D-4DDB-B4A0-6D6D8F8B54B6.jpeg

Edited by Sue Denim

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2 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

My view, no agenda, is this would be a nightmare to manage if it was a free for all, not to mention the cost.

No source, just my opinion. 

Universal Benefits are easier to administer than Means Tested ones and presumably you'd need a dated certificate to qualify, as for the cost I heard an "expert" on Newsnight last week arguing that it would pay for itself in reduced transmission - just sayin' like...

Prob'ly be a pisser for those that have already had the disease - I can foresee mucho grumbling if it does happen and complications like whether lateral flow tests would be considered accurate enough but with the country in LockdownLite and still running with extremely high figures for cases, hospitalisations and deaths I'd say it's the better option.

*********************

Longer term if we're to come out of lockdown in Spring we need to do as much as possible during this edition - I would hope a combination of Lockdown, Vaccinations and the better weather to arrive would see restrictions being reduced gradually - once the end of the current Scottish lockdown is reached mid-February I would hope any further extensions are no longer than two weeks in duration.

Once it became clear we'd lost control of the situation last autumn Jan-Mar 2021 were always likely to be the worst months but the lockdown shouldn't be allowed to drift into becoming a neverending story.

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This is the U.K. plan for a pandemic based on WHO advice:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/213717/dh_131040.pdf
 

The envisaged death toll from the hypothetical pandemic (assumed to be flu but which allowed for the possibility that it might be something similar to SARS) is given as 210,000-315,000. This was assumed to occur in as little as 15 weeks with perhaps half the deaths, up to 158,000, in just three weeks. 
 

Some highlights:

The expectation must be that the virus will inevitably spread and that any local measures taken to disrupt or reduce the spread are likely to have very limited or partial success at a national level and cannot be relied on as a way to ‘buy time’.

It will not be possible to stop the spread of, or to eradicate, either in the country of origin or in the UK, as it will spread too rapidly and too widely.
 

Although there is a perception that the wearing of facemasks by the public in the community and household setting may be beneficial, there is in fact very little evidence of widespread benefit from their use in this setting.
 

There are no plans to attempt to close borders in the event of an influenza pandemic.

Even a 99.9% travel restriction might delay a pandemic wave by only two months. During 2009 it became clear that the pandemic virus had already spread widely before international authorities were alerted, suggesting that in any case the point of pandemic emergence had been missed by several weeks. 
 

There is very limited evidence that restrictions on mass gatherings will have any significant effect
 

There is also a lack of scientific evidence on the impact of internal travel restrictions on transmission and attempts to impose such restrictions would have wide-reaching implications for business and welfare.
 

During a pandemic, the Government will encourage those who are well to carry on with their normal daily lives for as long and as far as that is possible, whilst taking basic precautions to protect themselves from infection and lessen the risk of spreading influenza to others
 

The UK Government does not plan to close borders, stop mass gatherings or impose controls on public transport during any pandemic. 

 

Edited by Sue Denim

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Looking at the actual U.K. plan for a pandemic it’s clear that every single measure the government introduced goes against the plan and that they didn’t believe that any of these measures would work.

Everything the government has done has been for show and has caused thousands of collateral deaths and ruined the economy.
 

All on the back of pressure from the middle class left.

 

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5 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

Looking at the actual U.K. plan for a pandemic it’s clear that every single measure the government introduced goes against the plan and that they didn’t believe that any of these measures would work.

Everything the government has done has been for show and has caused thousands of collateral deaths and ruined the economy.
 

All on the back of pressure from the middle class left.

 

As the Government jettisoned all attempt to fund the health service and prepared it for selling off to Private companies and friends at home and abroad, that UK plan was abandoned, jettisoned, thrown overboard - not by a middle class left but by yet another right-wing fascist venal Tory government.

 

It's a shame to see you are no longer inhabiting the same planet as sensible people.

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