The Referendum Thread

[Drew]

Nonsense. UKIP won't win a single seat in Westminster. They are just the English equivelent of the SNP. When it comes to General Elections they will be very much a minority party. The contest will be between Labour and the Conservatives. If Scotland by some miracle votes Yes in September we will have ensured a Conservative victory at Westminster and since the SNP's only proposal regarding currency is to tie Scotland to the Rest of the UK, an Independent Scotland will be consigned to follow Conservative spending plans.

If Scotland votes to remain in the Union I would imagine that the next General Election vote will be tight between Conservatives and Labour. I'd imagine the next Westminster Government would have to be yet another coalition one, which given the massive success of the current coalition is no bad thing.

Predictions of Armageddon in Westminster if Scotland votes No are utterly absurd, completely ridiculous, and absolute scaremongering by increasingly desperate Nationalists.

Where did I suggest that UKIP would win a seat?

You really don't understand this politics thing, do you Stuart?

We are already seeing the main parties realigning their policies and approach in response to UKIP and other influences (anti-EU, immigration etc.). This will have a direct impact upon how they present next year - their manifestos, policy pledges, and approach to gaining favour with certain sections of the electorate, inclusing potential UKIP supporters.

If you genuinely do not think the UKIP factor will have any effect on the political landscape in the lead up to and subsequent to the 2015 General Election, then you clearly have absolutely no clue as to how political systems operate, and have even less credibiity than I thought when discussing such matters.

ETA: and what are you slabbering on about predictions of Armageddon in Westminster if Scots vote NO for. Who has suggested anything that could be rmotely interpreted as this, and where?

Edited June 9, 2014 by Drew

[Drew]

They need 100% of the undecided votes just to make the contest close. Even then it still may not be enough.

Voters who have expressed an intention to vote one way or another are now massively entrenched. Nothing would persuade me to vote yes no, and I'm sure nothing will persuade you to vote No. With the Yes Campaign running out of time, and running out of undecided voters they look increasingly like a busted flush at around 1 in 3. That will bury Independence for a good number of years I reckon and good riddance to it too. I've got my grave dancing shoes ready for the death of Alex Salmonds political career.

NURSE!!!

[Isle Of Bute Saint]

They need 100% of the undecided votes just to make the contest close. Even then it still may not be enough.

Voters who have expressed an intention to vote one way or another are now massively entrenched. Nothing would persuade me to vote yes no, and I'm sure nothing will persuade you to vote No. With the Yes Campaign running out of time, and running out of undecided voters they look increasingly like a busted flush at around 1 in 3. That will bury Independence for a good number of years I reckon and good riddance to it too. I've got my grave dancing shoes ready for the death of Alex Salmonds political career.

Mr Salmond said it “wouldn’t be realistic” to keep nuclear weapons in an independent Scotland.

In todays Scotsman Mr Salmond having to repeat himself for the umpteenth time because sill old men like yourself can't sallow facts.

Also see the latest poll has put the 'YES' vote at 46%

[Stuart Dickson]

Mr Salmond said it “wouldn’t be realistic” to keep nuclear weapons in an independent Scotland.

In todays Scotsman Mr Salmond having to repeat himself for the umpteenth time because sill old men like yourself can't sallow facts.

Also see the latest poll has put the 'YES' vote at 46%

No it doesn't. The Poll of Polls survey showed 42% intend to vote Yes, while 58% intend to vote No. how does the poll of polls work? Well it looks at poll results from six opinion polls from April 23rd to the 1st of June and attempts to establish a pattern.

There's no indication that the Yes Campaign is even close to winning.

Edited June 9, 2014 by Stuart Dickson

[Stuart Dickson]

And while we are at it here's yet more evidence that the SNP have absolutely no ability in controlling a countries budget. Here, in a devolved organisation ran directly from Hollyrood, we see yet another massive budget overspend. Shameful in the extreme.

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/scotlands-new-80m-showpiece-state-3664497

It was also interesting when watching Question Time last Thursday to note the collapse in the Welsh nationalist support in that country because people are beginning to realise that the standard of politician sitting at the Welsh Assembly isn't good enough to run a country. The same situation should exist in Scotland but I guess the xenophobic nature of a number of Scots towards England encourages many to ignore the hopeless lack of ability of the politicians in our devolved parliament and the real effects of giving those idiots unfettered control of our country. Sad really....

[Guest TPAFKATS]

Isleofbute saint is correct. The poll by some org called populus for the FT has yes at 46%, once undecideds are removed.

[oaksoft]

Is that 50.1% of the population, or would you be happy enough with 50.1% of the vote even if it was a really low turnout?

It's irrelevant. 50.1% of the vote going Yes means we'll be permanently independent.

A No vote of less than 60 to 65% will see us back here until we get a YES.

[oaksoft]

My intention is to see Scotland remain part of the UK.

50-60% is therefore fantastic. The only thing its dire for is the Yes campaign! :

A No vote of that magnitude will only see independence delayed by a decade or so.

You are deluding yourself if you think this is going to go away.

[oaksoft]

I reckon less than 70% for No would result in that. I'm not arguing, just giving my opinion.

Yeah maybe. 30%+ for Yes may well keep it alive.

I think under 30% might kill it though.

[Guest TPAFKATS]

Just watched darling's interview on Scotland Tonight. Yes campaign should rerun it as a campaign broadcast - darling is a habitual liar.

[BoWSaint]

I can't believe Stuart and Isabella still seem to think that this is a vote for/against the SNP. It has nothing to do with them and it would be a real shame if a sizable number of voters made up their mind due to this. I've never voted SNP but I would vote yes. Pointing out the SNPs shortcomings is pointless and juvenile.

It also isn't a vote about economics. There isn't even a debate about whether we would be a wealthy country. The Conservative Prime Minister even acknowledges it. The question being asked this September isn't "could...", it is "should"....

The only question you really need to ask yourself before you vote is whether you want Scotland to have full control of itself. That's all. How we choose to run the country after a YES vote is still completely up for grabs. We can vote in whoever we want and everyone who voted NO would still get a vote in the election so who knows who would come into power. The SNP do not win by default.

Also, if someone chooses to vote yes or no, they quite possibly have thought through it and made their choice. This doesn't make them a bad person and there certainly shouldn't be any gloating or ridiculing before or after the vote. It is a shame that some have brought it to this schoolyard level. I've had many entertaining debates with NO voters over the months, not on this site mind you, but it can happen and you can still be good friends after.

[Stuart Dickson]

Once undecided voters have been excluded. Again - doesn't know how to use numbers. Anyone else I would give the benefit of the doubt as they might have misread, but I know that Thicko is too thick to understand the difference between % of votes after the undecided ones are excluded and % of votes.

http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/06/poll-of-polls-1-june/

You're probably too thick to do this but, seeing as it was your "fact", are these six polls giving the results for those who intend to vote or just for anyone that was asked? Some proof of which would be nice, too. Otherwise, your "Poll of Polls" is relatively meaningless.

I can't believe that I just asked Thicko for proof ( ) seeing as he still hasn't provided that youtube clip that he offered to provide. He can't even just admit he was wrong and move on.

Thicko doesn't understand removing undecided voters - it involves literacy and numeracy - he's well f**ked.

Poll of polls do strip out the don't knows. Anyone with any intellect should have been able to work that out given 42 + 58 = 100

[Stuart Dickson]

It's irrelevant. 50.1% of the vote going Yes means we'll be permanently independent.

A No vote of less than 60 to 65% will see us back here until we get a YES.

So for the benefit of those wavering what you are saying is a Yes vote is irreversible bit a No vote can be fixed if in 10 - 15 Years we think we got it wrong?

Hopefully everyone is paying attention. If Yes can't prove their case why vote for ot

[oaksoft]

So for the benefit of those wavering what you are saying is a Yes vote is irreversible bit a No vote can be fixed if in 10 - 15 Years we think we got it wrong?

Yep. I think that pretty much covers the bases.

Sorry is this news to you?

[foxbar_bud]

It's irrelevant. 50.1% of the vote going Yes means we'll be permanently independent.

A No vote of less than 60 to 65% will see us back here until we get a YES.

To put a different spin on it, (and im not nailing my colours to any mast), but surely on the back of the recession and under a tory goverment that, as usual, are only looking after their own, this is one of the best oportunities of people wanting to split from GB?

Surely we are as disengaged from London and rUK as we are ever likely to be?

[Drew]

To put a different spin on it, (and im not nailing my colours to any mast), but surely on the back of the recession and under a tory goverment that, as usual, are only looking after their own, this is one of the best oportunities of people wanting to split from GB?

Surely we are as disengaged from London and rUK as we are ever likely to be?

As I've suggested earlier, if the referendum followed next year's general election, I reckon there would be a healthy YES majority.

I predict a clusterf**k in Westminstershire next year.

[Guest TPAFKATS]

Also see the latest poll has put the 'YES' vote at 46%

No it doesn't. The Poll of Polls survey showed 42% intend to vote Yes, while 58% intend to vote No. how does the poll of polls work? Well it looks at poll results from six opinion polls from April 23rd to the 1st of June and attempts to establish a pattern.

Isleofbute saint is correct. The poll by some org called populus for the FT has yes at 46%, once undecideds are removed.

Wow, dicko are you ready to admit you f**ked up again?

[Guest TPAFKATS]

Not he best couple of days for the No campaign.

Firstly, the heid civil servant at the treasury admits that they "misbriefed" over the discredited set up costs. This wasnt the most damaging statement in his speech however as he also admitted that Scotland would not only be a successful independent economy, we would also be admitted to the EU and would likely get a good deal on it.

Then today the big hitting (or is that clunking fist), ex PM Gordon "nokia" Brown goes off message when he briefs the westminster press pack telling them that Cameron SHOULD debate with Salmond.

Now, figures published show inward investment hittinga 16 year high in Scotland despite Osborne telling us foreign companies are scared off by the uncertainty of indy referendum.

In a bid to deflect attention from this Blair McDougall, heid bummer at better together, responds by telling us that a Yes win will leave a deeply divided Scotland.

this might explain Darlings performance on Scotland tonight - all the spinning has left him a wee bit dizzy.

[Vambo57]

Jim Sillars & Colin Fox speaking on The Scottish Independence Referendum

at St.Mary's Primary School, Maxwellton St. at 7pm on Tuesday (today) 10th June.

That will be interesting.

Edited June 10, 2014 by Vambo57

[Stuart Dickson]

http://www.populus.co.uk/Poll/Scottish-Referendum/

Oh dear. It looks like the SNP take on the Populus Poll was typical Natsi spin.

1. As the poll is a UK wide poll. It doesn't ask voting intentions.

2. Although it does break results down into regions the sample size of Scottish voters is only 520 odd around half of the normal sample size.

3. The relevant poll shows Scottish support for Independence at 40% with 13% undecided.

Silly Natsis

[smcc]

http://www.populus.co.uk/Poll/Scottish-Referendum/

Oh dear. It looks like the SNP take on the Populus Poll was typical Natsi spin.

1. As the poll is a UK wide poll. It doesn't ask voting intentions.

2. Although it does break results down into regions the sample size of Scottish voters is only 520 odd around half of the normal sample size.

3. The relevant poll shows Scottish support for Independence at 40% with 13% undecided.

Silly Natsis

Perhaps more important is the finding that, when asked if 5 years from now most Scots would regret voting "Yes", the Scottish respondents were split 50:50.

[RickMcD]

Perhaps more important is the finding that, when asked if 5 years from now most Scots would regret voting "Yes", the Scottish respondents were split 50:50.

Is five years relevant? The Union is over three hundred years old, has seen us through thick and thin and anyone who really thinks a five year period has any relevance just ain't got a grasp on reality. A hundred years from now when the oil is gone could be a different story.

[thepaisleypanda]

My intention is to see Scotland remain part of the UK.

simple question: WHY?

[RickMcD]

And how many people who vote in this referendum will be around in a hundred years time to regret anything?

A hundred years of investment of any surplus in new industries should result in the loss of oil revenue not being an issue. Not that any of us will be around to see it.

I'm not one of those coming out with the 'I'm voting yes for my children and my childrens' children'. I just possibly think longer term than those guys. I want Scotland to be a forward looking, vibrant and wealthy country in a hundred years time and I believe the best way forward is to stay in the Union. The future of a country isn't a short term sprint.

[Stuart Dickson]

Anyone see the irony?

Did you use a calculator for that Thicko? Where's that proof I asked you for? I was well aware that the poll (presumably) excluded undecided voters. I wanted to know if you knew, which you obviously didn't as (i) you didn't say so and (ii) admitting that destroys the rest of your argument. So, this Poll of Polls, what % of the electorate that intend to vote do these %s represent? You know how to get that, don't you?

So, what you are saying is that if 11% (from the 13%) of undecided voters vote Yes, then Yes will win. That's not what you said earlier. Make up your mind. It's pointless us all pointing out your mistakes as you point them out yourself - you just don't realise that you do (ya no, cos u's a thicko, man).

You never did explain why that bit on your teams website, that you claim was written by someone else, says "Written by Stuart Dickson". Did you write it or are you claiming credit for someone else's work? C'mon, we want to know. We could create a new game show here, "Thicko or Thief" (you could even have an option for both).

Oh FFS of course I knew how the poll of poll works. I'd f**king explained it in the initial post. Each opinion poll has a margin of error of approx +/- 6%. Quoting individual polls might make good copy in the press, especially when you get the odd rogue result but the Poll of Polls shows the trend of the results in an attempt to smooth out the margin of error. Now if you care to review the graph that I published, taken from The Telegraph website and in turn taking from the Poll of Polls website, you can see that the Yes Campaign has made absolutely no inroads on the No Campaign over the whole campaign. Poll of Polls strip out the undecided in their graph of course but the number of undecideds have fallen from 22% initially to just 13% and it appears that they've fallen quite evenly between Yes and No. You'd need to be pretty desperate to argue against this but then we know that those in the Yes Campaign are getting increasingly desperate as is obvious in the increasing verbosity of your posts, and those made by the likes of Cockles.

Now, since you ask - going massively off topic - the website was redesigned after a Joomla update and the initial articles were copied and pasted over by me to the new site. I'm hardly claiming credit for anything after all it wasn't me who posted the link to my picture on the Wishaw Wycombe website. Why anyone on here would want to pick holes in a Juvenile Football Clubs website is beyond me but I guess that's the extent of the desperation being shown by the Natsi's these days. Sad really, but somewhat unsurprising given the SNP's record on supporting youth football in this country.

Edited June 10, 2014 by Stuart Dickson