Vambo57 Posted September 22, 2014 Report Share Posted September 22, 2014 No votes 2,001,926 Yes votes 1,617,989 Difference 383,937 votes A swing of 191,969 votes from No to Yes required to allow Yes to win by 1 vote 191,969 as a percentage of 2,001,926 is 9.589% This is the % swing required to change the result. Edited due to typo Statistics eh? BOK was speaking in percentages and by my reckoning it would not be a 9.589% swing required but 5.3015 Or am I missing something? BTW, nobody got anything to say about the video above? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vambo57 Posted September 22, 2014 Report Share Posted September 22, 2014 Stop being a Dick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zurich_allan Posted September 22, 2014 Report Share Posted September 22, 2014 Just to add a real life comparison to this, which is why I think that the pro-independence movement have a tough job on their hands; the circa 200,000 person swing necessary is the equivalent of persuading every single person of voting age in more than three towns the size of Paisley. Certainly not impossible, but it's the sort of swing that is likely to take a significant amount of time (10 years +), not in the short term certainly. Not going to get involved in the debate, but just trying to show what the figure equates to in reality as opposed to just numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigjerseybuddie Posted September 22, 2014 Report Share Posted September 22, 2014 It's looking more and more likely that Westminster will use every trick in the book to slow down or indeed overlook/ignore the "vow" and other promises made to the people of Scotland. This was always going to be the case. The No voters must take some responsibility and continue to push for the changes. It must not just be left to the Yes voters. I come from a large family of Yes voters who quite rightly will not adopt the " oh well it's over let's just move on" attitude. It would seem the shift in Scottish politics is one of the people now realising that change for the better can be worked towards in a small country like Scotland. Whether that can be achieved while tied to a leader with a different agenda remains to be seen. I know from my visits to Glasgow that it's a different place from the one I left. In a political sense it has grown up a great deal and I have often felt a sense of optimism. This was long before the referendum. If that optimism can be shared by others then perhaps Scotland's identity will come to the fore. I know that a great number of my elderly relatives fell that they are a little better off under a Scottish leadership and saw the referendum as a final push to perhaps improve things a little more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigjerseybuddie Posted September 22, 2014 Report Share Posted September 22, 2014 I hope none of my elderly relatives fell! I meant felt ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isle Of Bute Saint Posted September 22, 2014 Report Share Posted September 22, 2014 (edited) Aberdeen and Edinburgh both have a large rich population so obviously were very concerned about the pound. Independence groups must get the currency right next time they have to learn from this. Was also disappointed no one countered Browns speech properly this the man who brought the country to its knees on his watch. Edited September 22, 2014 by Isle Of Bute Saint Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil McCracken Posted September 22, 2014 Report Share Posted September 22, 2014 No thanks to what? To helping those relying on foodbanks? To helping those in poverty? To helping those who can't get jobs? To helping getting rid of nuclear weapons? If so, that's quite sad. my mother in law has lived in 'poverty' for 40 years she voted no Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
E=Mc2 Posted September 22, 2014 Report Share Posted September 22, 2014 That's probably why you are missing the concept of a reference point. It's about a 5% swing with reference to the overall vote total which is how these things are normally done. WGAS anyway. It's only 200,000 shy of a Yes win needed next time. If your reference is the total of votes cast ie 3,619,915 votes then 191,696 as a percentage of the total votes cast is 5.29%. If you are looking for what percentage of voters who voted No would have to change their minds to turn the vote into a Yes vote then the answer is 9.6% As long as folk don't believe if 5% of No voters had voted Yes then the Yes vote would have won. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALBIONSAINT Posted September 22, 2014 Report Share Posted September 22, 2014 Aberdeen and Edinburgh both have a large rich population so obviously were very concerned about the pound. Independence groups must get the currency right next time they have to learn from this. Was also disappointed no one countered Browns speech properly this the man who brought the country to its knees on his watch. I agree that the currency issue was probably a key issue, I feel that more emphasis and detail could have been communicated, however would anyone of heard it above the propaganda machine that was in full swing, I doubt it. Everyday is a school day, so hopefully we learn from the experience. Personally I believe we should have promoted our own currency pegged to sterling, that way people know there is a risk but your not faced with having to gain consent from the very people you are debating against. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
E=Mc2 Posted September 22, 2014 Report Share Posted September 22, 2014 Statistics eh? BOK was speaking in percentages and by my reckoning it would not be a 9.589% swing required but 5.3015 Or am I missing something? BTW, nobody got anything to say about the video above? Bullying a girl. Scum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALBIONSAINT Posted September 22, 2014 Report Share Posted September 22, 2014 http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/alex-salmond-blasted-over-suggestion-4302700?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter Alex Salmond and Jim Sillars showing yet more Nazi similarities. Apparently now they want the Scottish Government to overthrow Westminster. Throw that into the mix with Sillars " Day of Reckoning" and it's clear Scotland dodged a bullet last Thursday Sorry I don't read this news paper, however I have heard others say it is very absorbent pray tell what exactly are the Nazi similarities ? 16000 new SNP members since Thursday ! If this level of recruitment continues we could start a youth movement ........ 10,9,8,7....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
E=Mc2 Posted September 22, 2014 Report Share Posted September 22, 2014 Sorry I don't read this news paper, however I have heard others say it is very absorbent pray tell what exactly are the Nazi similarities ? 16000 new SNP members since Thursday ! If this level of recruitment continues we could start a youth movement ........ 10,9,8,7....... And as far as the elderlies are concerned any kind of movement is welcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris Posted September 22, 2014 Report Share Posted September 22, 2014 Just to add a real life comparison to this, which is why I think that the pro-independence movement have a tough job on their hands; the circa 200,000 person swing necessary is the equivalent of persuading every single person of voting age in more than three towns the size of Paisley. Certainly not impossible, but it's the sort of swing that is likely to take a significant amount of time (10 years +), not in the short term certainly. Not going to get involved in the debate, but just trying to show what the figure equates to in reality as opposed to just numbers. And yet support for independence was only hitting around 25% in the polls two years ago. So that sort of swing is very achievable in very little time. Indeed, if we have a Tory or Tory/UKIP government in May, a referendum on the EU announced for 2017 and no agreement on meaningful additional powers for Scotland - all of which seems rather likely at the moment - then I dare say you could see that sort of swing by June 2015. Not to mention the fact that more young voters and fewer elderly voters will be eligible, something else which will help a pro-independence swing. Independence has been an inevitability since we first voted for a Scottish parliament. The question is when will it happen. Thursday was our 1979; I think our 1997 will come rather sooner than 2032. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
E=Mc2 Posted September 22, 2014 Report Share Posted September 22, 2014 Bloke from Wishaw? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-29314400 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Dickson Posted September 22, 2014 Report Share Posted September 22, 2014 It's looking more and more likely that Westminster will use every trick in the book to slow down or indeed overlook/ignore the "vow" and other promises made to the people of Scotland. This was always going to be the case. The No voters must take some responsibility and continue to push for the changes. It must not just be left to the Yes voters. I come from a large family of Yes voters who quite rightly will not adopt the " oh well it's over let's just move on" attitude. It would seem the shift in Scottish politics is one of the people now realising that change for the better can be worked towards in a small country like Scotland. Whether that can be achieved while tied to a leader with a different agenda remains to be seen. I know from my visits to Glasgow that it's a different place from the one I left. In a political sense it has grown up a great deal and I have often felt a sense of optimism. This was long before the referendum. If that optimism can be shared by others then perhaps Scotland's identity will come to the fore. I know that a great number of my elderly relatives fell that they are a little better off under a Scottish leadership and saw the referendum as a final push to perhaps improve things a little more. Sorry? You want me to take responsibility for the implementation of something I didn't want in the first place? I couldn't give the slightest shite about proposals to devolve more powers and I don't think there are many No voters who were swayed by it either - especially when you consider in every single credible poll bar one the No's were always in the lead. Gordon Brown should have had no authority whatsoever to make pledges that he couldn't keep. And what do you mean that your large family won't just accept the result? Are you saying that you and your brothers and sisters are going to come round to Wishaw with menace to try to get me to do something about it? Can I just point out I'm not trembling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Dickson Posted September 22, 2014 Report Share Posted September 22, 2014 Is the housing policy of buying your home being pulled not because of the fact we are running out of housing stock Stuart? No - we're hardly running out of housing stock. We've still got loads of council houses on the books. The excuse given was that there was a shortage, but of course the only reason there is a shortage is because people who could have afforded the discounted prices for a Right to Buy home won't move on to their own new homes and they've now got no right to buy the home their family lives in. IMO it's immoral to turf people out of their family homes after they've lived in them for so many years so a situation doesn't exist where we can free up more of the current housing stock by moving people on. So the next best thing is to sell the house to the tenant at a discounted price therefore realising the capital to go away and build new housing stock, some of which you can rent out and some of which you can sell. Scrapping the Right To Buy policy only paves the way for even more council housing shortages. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Dickson Posted September 22, 2014 Report Share Posted September 22, 2014 Aberdeen and Edinburgh both have a large rich population so obviously were very concerned about the pound. Independence groups must get the currency right next time they have to learn from this. Was also disappointed no one countered Browns speech properly this the man who brought the country to its knees on his watch. You are aware that 28 of the 32 regions rejected Independence. It's not just the people of Aberdeen and Edinburgh. Perth, Dumfries, the West Islands, you're own local area and many, many more rejected Independence out of hand. Picking apart the campaign is fair enough. Salmond and Co really just did not put forward a credible case at all and the fact that 1.6m Scots were prepared to vote in favour of it is either an indication that large parts of the country suffers from a lack of intellect, mass xenophobia, or just being easily led. To think we could have walked zombie style into an undemocratic authoritarian state ignoring all the evidence from history speaks volumes as to why we really should never have another independence referendum ever again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Dickson Posted September 22, 2014 Report Share Posted September 22, 2014 Bloke from Wishaw? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-29314400 Not me, but like the punter in the article I was always 100% certain of the outcome. I did have bets on and won some money - but one of my bests did lose and I'm gutted about it. In the last week I did bet that the Yes Campaign would get less than 40% of the vote. I was close enough to have enjoyed a run for my money at 10-1 but unfortunately not close enough to get a return on that £1 stake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALBIONSAINT Posted September 22, 2014 Report Share Posted September 22, 2014 Bloke from Wishaw? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-29314400 Admin error at the BBC this was supposed to be in last weeks news , luckily the have managed to edit it a bit for the sake of schadenfreude . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuddyHolly9 Posted September 22, 2014 Report Share Posted September 22, 2014 And yet support for independence was only hitting around 25% in the polls two years ago. So that sort of swing is very achievable in very little time. Indeed, if we have a Tory or Tory/UKIP government in May, a referendum on the EU announced for 2017 and no agreement on meaningful additional powers for Scotland - all of which seems rather likely at the moment - then I dare say you could see that sort of swing by June 2015. Not to mention the fact that more young voters and fewer elderly voters will be eligible, something else which will help a pro-independence swing. Independence has been an inevitability since we first voted for a Scottish parliament. The question is when will it happen. Thursday was our 1979; I think our 1997 will come rather sooner than 2032. Wasn't it really just the 16-> 18 yr olds that made the young vote look good? The young ones that have properly started working etc 18 up actually rejected it? Also, the next crew of pensioners actually voted No as well quite significantly, the 55-64 yr olds. The only compelling group for Yes were the 25-34 yr olds. TBH, the arguments will have moved on by the time the next one happens (I'd guess > 15 yrs time) so making assumptions about any age group is wrong form either side! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALBIONSAINT Posted September 22, 2014 Report Share Posted September 22, 2014 Sorry? You want me to take responsibility for the implementation of something I didn't want in the first place? I couldn't give the slightest shite about proposals to devolve more powers and I don't think there are many No voters who were swayed by it either - especially when you consider in every single credible poll bar one the No's were always in the lead. Gordon Brown should have had no authority whatsoever to make pledges that he couldn't keep. And what do you mean that your large family won't just accept the result? Are you saying that you and your brothers and sisters are going to come round to Wishaw with menace to try to get me to do something about it? Can I just point out I'm not trembling. Your absolutely right, Gordon Brown has no authority to make pledges, but it wasn't him that made the pledge it was the PM his deputy and the leader of the opposition. Mr brown merely set a timetable. I respect your position that you feel more British than Scottish, however surely having the ability to make decisions closer to where they will be implemented can only be of benefit to all concerned no matter your political perspective. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strummer Posted September 22, 2014 Report Share Posted September 22, 2014 You are aware that 28 of the 32 regions rejected Independence. It's not just the people of Aberdeen and Edinburgh. Perth, Dumfries, the West Islands, you're own local area and many, many more rejected Independence out of hand. What percentage is winning out of hand ..10 or 11 of the areas had a yes vote of around or far greater than 45 %.. winning out of hand or landslide or by a mile or whatever..is probably winning by 70 to 80 %..talk some sense man.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuddyHolly9 Posted September 22, 2014 Report Share Posted September 22, 2014 Your absolutely right, Gordon Brown has no authority to make pledges, but it wasn't him that made the pledge it was the PM his deputy and the leader of the opposition. Mr brown merely set a timetable. I respect your position that you feel more British than Scottish, however surely having the ability to make decisions closer to where they will be implemented can only be of benefit to all concerned no matter your political perspective. Personally I don't get this argument. Some crow on and on about this yet are quite happy to be bound to Europe, happy to let Europe dictate fiscal policy and the all important IR rate for mortgages! the world is a small place these days, we send representation to London to represent us, they could sit on the moon as far as I'm concerned (costs permitting of course). I'm sure the people in the highlands really feel more connected to the building in the royal mile as they do an extra hour extra away in London. Anyways, I lived in Edinburgh for 6 years and they hated Weigies (couldn't actually believe the hatred, nasty banter directed to the west and that was in a multi national IT company!) so thoughts of one cosy Scotland are wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Dickson Posted September 22, 2014 Report Share Posted September 22, 2014 Your absolutely right, Gordon Brown has no authority to make pledges, but it wasn't him that made the pledge it was the PM his deputy and the leader of the opposition. Mr brown merely set a timetable. I respect your position that you feel more British than Scottish, however surely having the ability to make decisions closer to where they will be implemented can only be of benefit to all concerned no matter your political perspective. I don't feel more British than Scottish - that's another thing that Yes voters have no right taking the ground over. I'm every bit as passionate and committed Scot as you are, or indeed as anyone is on this website. The difference between you and I is that I believe that my Scotland is much better served by being part of the United Kingdom - one of the greatest political unions the world has ever seen, and by far the most successful. I've seen absolutely nothing from the devolved parliament that makes me believe that devolving power to there makes any sense at all, indeed I've repeatedly stated that in my opinion it would be far better if we closed Holyrood, got rid of all the MSP's who are stealing a wage from the taxpayer, and we just get back to having one parliament - at Westminister - where the ration of people to politicians is far higher. I find it utterly bizarre that anyone of sane mind would argue on one hand that politicians are corrupt liars, and then immediately argue that because of that we should employ more and give them more powers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Dickson Posted September 22, 2014 Report Share Posted September 22, 2014 (edited) You are aware that 28 of the 32 regions rejected Independence. It's not just the people of Aberdeen and Edinburgh. Perth, Dumfries, the West Islands, you're own local area and many, many more rejected Independence out of hand. What percentage is winning out of hand ..10 or 11 of the areas had a yes vote of around or far greater than 45 %.. winning out of hand or landslide or by a mile or whatever..is probably winning by 70 to 80 %..talk some sense man.. I think failing to convince the people in your great leaders own region - so much so he ducked the count - is an embarrassing defeat. I think the huge votes - almost 70% against Independence - in the islands and down in Dumfries showed just how badly the argument about politics being too one region centric went for the Yes Campaign. I think the fact that area's like Midlothian, Edinburgh and South Lanarkshire voted No show that even in their own heartlands the independence campaign failed to hit the mark. Even in f**king Renfrewshire the voters came out on a No vote. Successfully making your argument in just 4 out of 32 regions is a tanking. And losing by over 10% of the voting population is a doing in anyones language Edited September 22, 2014 by Stuart Dickson Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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