Brexit Negotiations

[Bud the Baker]

7 minutes ago, DougJamie said:

Theressa May coming out a shower  What a minging thought

You may get your wish! 

Quote

 

Cabinet ministers put on standby for emergency conference call with PM in next half hour

10:32 am - 10 Dec 2018

 

Plenty of twists and turns left in this story......................

Edited December 10, 2018 by Bud the Baker

[DougJamie]

11 minutes ago, Bud the Baker said:

You may get your wish! 

Plenty of twists and turns left in this story......................

Yup, I dont think we will have the vote

[Bud the Baker]

I'm confused 

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Bloomberg's @TimRoss_1 reporting that the PM has called off tomorrow's vote.

11:33 am - 10 Dec 2018

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• 11:32 The prime minister’s spokeswoman played down the prospect of the withdrawal agreement being renegotiated - but strongly hinted that there could be changes to the political declaration (the document setting out the framework for the future relationship).

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3m ago11:51

 

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The BBC’s political editor, Laura Kuenssberg, says she has been told by two cabinet sources that the vote is being pulled.

 

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Ouch - how can May stay?

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12:08 Pound tumbling to its lowest level in 18 months.

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12:11 And Andrea Leadsom, the leader of the Commons, is due to make a statement to MPs later, the BBC reports. That is likely to a confirmation that the Commons business for this week is being rescheduled, because the Tuesday vote is not going ahead.

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Quote

12:14  As the reports emerged, the Speaker’s office confirmed that May would give an oral statement to the House of Commons on the European Union at 3.30pm on Monday. It will be immediately followed by a business statement from the leader of the House of Commons Andrea Leadsom.

 

Edited December 10, 2018 by Bud the Baker

[Bud the Baker]

Confirmed!

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Confirmed: Downing Street has told the government's PPS team that May will return to Brussels to seek to renegotiate the backstop

Any of you IndyRef No voters still happy we chose the safe option?  

[oaksoft]

15 minutes ago, Bud the Baker said:

Confirmed!

Any of you IndyRef No voters still happy we chose the safe option?  

I'm not sure that gloating is helpful.

This is a pretty serious situation.

The public made their position extremely clear when they voted to leave the EU.

The size of that vote was not dependent on discussions or deals with the EU.

She took the job on knowing that people had voted this way.

She probably should have either gone for no deal or ignored the vote and allowed parliament to make a final vote on Article 50.

All of this is self-inflicted.

Personally, I think anything other than staying in will be bad news in the short term but then how do you justify ignoring the referendum result?

[Bud the Baker]

37 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

I'm not sure that gloating is helpful.

This is a pretty serious situation.

The public made their position extremely clear when they voted to leave the EU.

The size of that vote was not dependent on discussions or deals with the EU.

She took the job on knowing that people had voted this way.

She probably should have either gone for no deal or ignored the vote and allowed parliament to make a final vote on Article 50.

All of this is self-inflicted.

Personally, I think anything other than staying in will be bad news in the short term but then how do you justify ignoring the referendum result?

The promises of the LEAVE campaign in the Euro Referendum have not materialised, and never will, so revisiting the decision is the sensible option - we (the UK) may have a chance to withdraw A50  unilaterally and we should grab it with both hands.

 

As I've said elsewhere I feel the guarantees of IndyMax made in 2014 have not materialised, the Brexit process has further undermined this with Westminster grabbing powers that should have reverted to Scotland. The whole IndyRef message from the NO campaign that "we love you Scotland, but if you leave (sic) we'll make the process as difficult as possible" was abusive and like I said it certainly hasn't turned out to be the safe option

 

Despite Brexit being the most certain route to Independence for Scotland, I would still prefer to see it being stopped.

 

As for gloating being unhelpful - this is a Football Forum not the RealWorld, and elections/referendums are one-off events in the ever changing world of politics - we've had two years of constant politicking since the EuroReferendum is it to bizarre to think that some people who voted NO in 2014 will have changed their opinions about the value of the Union to Scotland especially if politics South of the border continues to be dominated by the "Little Englanders" and their obsessions.

 

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In the opening post I said "The eventual deal will be whatever the EU wants with the UK being left to "take it or leave it" and does anyone really doubt we'll take it?"

As recently as 5 minutes ago a leading EU politician has tweeted "I can’t follow anymore. After two years of negotiations, the Tory government wants to delay the vote. Just keep in mind that we will never let the Irish down. This delay will further aggravate the uncertainty for people & businesses. It’s time they make up their mind!"

Other than TM extending her tenure for a couple of weeks is there really any point in delaying "the vote"?

Edited December 10, 2018 by Bud the Baker

[Guest TPAFKATS]

Theressa May coming out a shower  What a minging thought

Maybe not the current PM, however I'm sure there's plenty photies etc out there of her namesake Teresa May coming in and out of the shower.

[shull]

5 minutes ago, TPAFKATS said:

4 hours ago, DougJamie said:

Theressa May coming out a shower  What a minging thought

Maybe not the current PM, however I'm sure there's plenty photies etc out there of her namesake Teresa May coming in and out of the shower.

One of Margaret Thatcher in her prime would be appealing.  

[DougJamie]

5 minutes ago, shull said:

One of Margaret Thatcher in her prime would be appealing.  

Ok just to balance

 

Just for you- Enjoy

 

[shull]

It's okay Abu. 

He found me. 

[portmahomack saint]

This shows how perilous our situation is getting the Brexit protestors have took some time out to sing the Stephen McGinn song 

[Bud the Baker]

 

Just more pretence from May that the EU are suddenly going to flip and offer us concessions on "The Backstop" - is there no MP with the bollocks to say "Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire". 

[oaksoft]

2 hours ago, Bud the Baker said:

The promises of the LEAVE campaign in the Euro Referendum have not materialised, and never will, so revisiting the decision is the sensible option - we (the UK) may have a chance to withdraw A50  unilaterally and we should grab it with both hands.

 

As I've said elsewhere I feel the guarantees of IndyMax made in 2014 have not materialised, the Brexit process has further undermined this with Westminster grabbing powers that should have reverted to Scotland. The whole IndyRef message from the NO campaign that "we love you Scotland, but if you leave (sic) we'll make the process as difficult as possible" was abusive and like I said it certainly hasn't turned out to be the safe option

 

Despite Brexit being the most certain route to Independence for Scotland, I would still prefer to see it being stopped.

 

As for gloating being unhelpful - this is a Football Forum not the RealWorld, and elections/referendums are one-off events in the ever changing world of politics - we've had two years of constant politicking since the EuroReferendum is it to bizarre to think that some people who voted NO in 2014 will have changed their opinions about the value of the Union to Scotland especially if politics South of the border continues to be dominated by the "Little Englanders" and their obsessions.

 

*****************

In the opening post I said "The eventual deal will be whatever the EU wants with the UK being left to "take it or leave it" and does anyone really doubt we'll take it?"

As recently as 5 minutes ago a leading EU politician has tweeted "I can’t follow anymore. After two years of negotiations, the Tory government wants to delay the vote. Just keep in mind that we will never let the Irish down. This delay will further aggravate the uncertainty for people & businesses. It’s time they make up their mind!"

Other than TM extending her tenure for a couple of weeks is there really any point in delaying "the vote"?

The problem here is that it's clear you don't agree that the majority vote should be respected in either of these referenda.

You are justifying your position on both by talking about people being lied to, hoodwinked or whatever but that simply disrespects the intellect of the voters who had a different opinion to you. You presume to know why people voted No and Leave but I think you are wrong on both counts. People simply didn't want to leave the UK under any circumstance regardless of what they heard. Period. People voted Leave to gain more control of our borders and our sovereignty. Period. I don't think the vast majority of people cared about much else and certainly didn't vote because of what they heard non-entity politicians bang on about. That is the reality as far as I am concerned. There were idiot voters on both sides but the vast majority simply made their minds up well before the vote itself.

It may well "only" be a football forum but you are talking to people who are also living in the real world.

You won't be converting anyone with this tone of debate.

If you want to simply release steam however......

I would like to see Brexit reversed but for the moment I don't think Scots are ready for what will be required for Indy. In fact I am certain they are not ready.

Edited December 10, 2018 by oaksoft

[oaksoft]

33 minutes ago, Bud the Baker said:

 

Just more pretence from May that the EU are suddenly going to flip and offer us concessions on "The Backstop" - is there no MP with the bollocks to say "Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire". 

Because it's an opinion that's why.

It's neither true nor false until she speaks to them personally.

[Bud the Baker]

19 hours ago, oaksoft said:

The problem here is that it's clear you don't agree that the majority vote should be respected in either of these referenda.

You are justifying your position on both by talking about people being lied to, hoodwinked or whatever but that simply disrespects the intellect of the voters who had a different opinion to you.

It may well "only" be a football forum but you are talking to people who are also living in the real world.

You won't be converting anyone with this tone of debate.

If you want to simply release steam however......

Because the assurances given by the winners in both referendums have failed to occur due to either lies bad faith or circumstance - do you disagree?

19 hours ago, oaksoft said:

Because it's an opinion that's why.

It's neither true nor false until she speaks to them personally.

I wouldn't say it's just an opinion that the EU  have dominated the course of the Brexit negotiations up until the current deal and all the EU politicians I've heard today say there will be no concessions on "The Backstop" - again do you disagree?

Edited December 11, 2018 by Bud the Baker

[saintnextlifetime]

On 12/9/2018 at 5:56 PM, billyg said:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

Good piece from Robert Peston , shows the extent of the complete shambles the country is facing.

You may have thought the vote in Parliament on Tuesday night was an important moment and deadline for how and whether the UK leaves the European Union.

I did. But I was wrong.

Because tomorrow the prime minister may decide to pull the vote (which she can do pretty easily, I am told by a minister, because of the way the motion for the vote is worded).

She will do that, her colleagues inform me, if she is facing defeat by the kind of colossal margin that would completely undermine confidence in her ability to govern - so more than 100 votes.

And right now, the margin of her personal humiliation looks considerably greater than that.

So what would it mean to pull the vote?

Well there is zero chance of her securing the kind of concessions from EU leaders this week at the regular EU council meeting that could turn that scale of Commons defeat into victory.

Sources in European capitals say the most EU government heads could offer would be some non-binding warm words about how they, like the prime minister, hope that the so-called backstop - so hated by Northern Ireland's DUP and Tory Brexiters - will never be implemented or will be of short duration.

Such friendly and supportive words will not turn the DUP and Tory Brexiters from enemies of the Brexit plan to its supporters. All they care about is the legal text of the Withdrawal Agreement. And absent that being opened up and changed - which it won't be this week - they will continue to stand in implacable oppositions to her Brexit plan.

So what can and will she do?

Well - and please move away from the ledge (NOW!) - she could try to re-open negotiations with the EU in a more fundamental way over Christmas and in January.

Because the hard deadline for her is in fact 21 January - which is when (under yet another successful Dominic Grieve initiative, enshrined in the EU Withdrawal Act), if there is no agreed deal, she is obliged to present a plan to parliament about what on earth she does next.

Now it is possible that her own Tory Brexiter MPs will not tolerate her shelving the vote. They want her plan dead and dead now. So they may - finally - see any further prevarication as all the cause they need to try and oust her.

That is the big risk for her, personally.

If she is to keep them on side, she may have to claim that she has been converted to their cause (yes I know that seems implausible).

One idea - put to me by a Whitehall rather than political source - is that she could tell the EU that unless the EU abandons the backstop, the UK would simply leave the EU on 29 March without a transition and via what is known as a hard Brexit, BUT that the UK would refrain from imposing any checks at its borders, either in the island of Ireland or at any of Great Britain's ports.

This would call the EU's bluff: it would mean that if Brexit were to be chaotic and economically disastrous, and if the border in Ireland were to harden in a way that promoted crime and terrorism, that would be at the EU's discretion, not the UK's (it's not a million miles from the tough negotiating stance currently being used by the Swiss, in their attempt to ward off the EU trying to give a greater role to the European Court of Justice in adjudicating single-market disputes - but the Swiss have less to lose than the UK).

This would he the ultimate in hardball negotiating, by May (so yes, implausible again).

It would keep onside most of the Tory Brexiters. But it would probably alienate a majority in parliament, because of the risk that it could all go horribly, appallingly wrong (it could lead to a disastrous Brexit, and could also damage diplomatic relations between the UK and EU for years to come).

The point, which you surely know by now, is that there is no Brexit available that doesn't alienate at least one constituency deemed important by the prime minister.

She attempted a Brexit whose explicit aim was to reconcile irreconcilable groups (Brexiters and DUP on the one hand, Remainers on the other; the EU 27 and Brexit voters). That failed. Her negotiated plan is in the dustbin of history.

To Brexit is to choose. May can duck her choice no longer (or at least not for very much longer!).

The whole European racket has been teetering on an knife edge and the Europeans are damned if they will let Gt Britain leave as they know it will be a disater for them , once we get out it will become apparent just what a corrupt mess Europe is . .

[Cornwall_Saint]

13 minutes ago, saintnextlifetime said:

The whole European racket has been teetering on an knife edge and the Europeans are damned if they will let Gt Britain leave as they know it will be a disater for them , once we get out it will become apparent just what a corrupt mess Europe is . .

Yes, because the British government is not corrupt in any way itself...

[saintnextlifetime]

38 minutes ago, Cornwall_Saint said:

Yes, because the British government is not corrupt in any way itself...

Yes, because the Scottish government is not corrupt in any way itself. .

[oaksoft]

2 hours ago, Bud the Baker said:

Because the assurances given by the winners in both referendums have failed to occur due to either lies or circumstance - do you disagree?

I wouldn't say it's just an opinion that the EU  have dominated the course of the Brexit negotiations up until the current deal and all the EU politicians I've heard today say there will be no concessions on "The Backstop" - again do you disagree?

Which specific promises are you talking about?

That second paragraph? That is not what we were discussing. We were discussing her statement that she believes she will get movement from the EU.

[oaksoft]

20 minutes ago, saintnextlifetime said:

Yes, because the Scottish government is not corrupt in any way itself. .

What a piss poor argument.

[Bud the Baker]

37 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

Which specific promises are you talking about?

 

IndyMax, as promised by Cameron, Clegg & Milliband in "The Pledge" when one opinion poll put YES ahead. I've also consistently mentioned the seizure of EU powers that should be devolved back to Scotland during the current Brexit process and the threats issued by English politicians during and in the aftermath of the IndyRef campaign. in particular the threat that the only way Scotland would be denied entry to the EU if we voted NO!.

37 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

 

That second paragraph? That is not what we were discussing. We were discussing her statement that she believes she will get movement from the EU.

It's relevant because the events of the last 18 months and in particular TMs assurances over the last few weeks that her deal was the only one we'd get impinge on her credibility on being able to get any improvements. I'd already seen and am currently watching EU politicians on TV news say there is no other deal to be offered and if it can't be passed at Westminster that it's a choice of either a No Deal Brexit or reversing A50.

TM is gambling on the hope that, if she delays the vote until January (or later) MPs will be so spooked by the prospect of a no-deal Brexit that they might vote in favour of her current proposals, because of course they will be no changes.  

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As I've also said consistently politics continues outwith elections/referenda as is quite easy to see - so your complaint about me not accepting the two results applies to just about anyone with an interest in politics.  

Edited December 10, 2018 by Bud the Baker

[saintnextlifetime]

41 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

What a piss poor argument.

. .in your piss poor biased opinion. .

[St.Ricky]

1 hour ago, saintnextlifetime said:

Yes, because the Scottish government is not corrupt in any way itself. .

Governments everywhere try to hold power whatever it takes. 

 

[Guest TPAFKATS]

Governments everywhere try to hold power whatever it takes. 
 

🤣Aye, the SNP are buggers for that

[oaksoft]

2 hours ago, Bud the Baker said:

IndyMax, as promised by Cameron, Clegg & Milliband in "The Pledge" when one opinion poll put YES ahead. I've also consistently mentioned the seizure of EU powers that should be devolved back to Scotland during the current Brexit process and the threats issued by English politicians during and in the aftermath of the IndyRef campaign. in particular the threat that the only way Scotland would be denied entry to the EU if we voted NO!.

 

I'm trying to get to the bottom of why you are talking about lies. For that you need a specific proposal which was never intended to be genuinely allowed.

Above, you've given me vague stuff.

Which specific powers were we promised which were reneged on?