Coronavirus

[Sue Denim]

17 minutes ago, bazil85 said:

No registered Covid19 deaths, I made that very, very clear. good effort though. 

 

Yes, you did indeed make it very clear that there were no registered Covid deaths.

However, the NRS have made it very clear that there were 8 registered Covid deaths last week. 
 

Oh dear baz...... 

[bazil85]

3 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

Like I have said before, it looks like this thread is now yet another one which is simply being "baziled" to death.

On another note, it's great to see 12 days of no covid deaths and a continued reduction in live cases.

We should take the bigger picture and realise that if this had hit during our tourist season rather than the tail end of winter when nobody was visiting the country, we might have been facing a very different problem. Unfortunately for England, they have London which is packed throughout the year.

IMO this is almost certainly the big difference between the outcomes of our two countries. This has a lot less to do with Sturgeon or Johnson and a lot more to do with sheer luck.

People are free to or to not engage with me. You make these claims but equally ALWAYS return to discussing with me on a discussion forum. People will engage on BAWA as they see fit. 

[bazil85]

2 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

Yes, you did indeed make it very clear that there were no registered Covid deaths.

However, the NRS have made it very clear that there were 8 registered Covid deaths last week. 
 

Oh dear baz...... 

Just be the way I've interpreted the interview. No new deaths for 13 days in a row but eight death registrations. Apologise I've gotten it round the wrong way. 

But I'm sure you will join me in congratulating the SNP on the "There have been no new coronavirus deaths in Scotland for a 13th successive day " point? Can't think of one reason why you wouldn't 

[Sue Denim]

18 minutes ago, bazil85 said:

Just be the way I've interpreted the interview. No new deaths for 13 days in a row but eight death registrations. Apologise I've gotten it round the wrong way. 

But I'm sure you will join me in congratulating the SNP on the "There have been no new coronavirus deaths in Scotland for a 13th successive day " point? Can't think of one reason why you wouldn't 

Deary me, I feared you would double down on this.

The NRS stats state that the average time between death and registration is 3 days.

These registrations cover the period from 20th July to 26th July.

There were 8 deaths registered during that time period with Covid on the death certificate. 
 

So, if we take the start date back by 3 days to 17th July and go from then to today, that’s 13 days.

So 8 new deaths with Covid must have occurred in the last 13 days.

Don’t embarrass yourself any further by triple downing on this.

The Scottish government are lying baz and you’re lapping it up.

The NRS stats don’t lie 

Edited July 29, 2020 by Sue Denim

[Doakes]

I think a big part of the problem is that we assume experts knew what was going to happen

In reality, a lot of it was guess work...

Mistakes have been made in every country (except maybe New Zealand)

The important thing is what happens next

 

[bazil85]

8 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

Deary me, I feared you would double down on this.

The NRS stats state that the average time between death and registration is 3 days.

These registrations cover the period from 20th July to 26th July.

There were 8 deaths registered during that time period with Covid on the death certificate. 
 

So, if we take the start date back by 3 days to 17th July and go from then to today, that’s 13 days.

So 8 new deaths with Covid must have occurred in the last 13 days.

Don’t embarrass yourself any further by triple downing on this.

The Scottish government are lying baz and you’re lapping it up.

The NRS stats don’t lie 

Nope not at all, I will always admit when I get something wrong. Maybe you should try it? I mixed up the meaning. 

I choose to believe them over you given you've been wrong on practically everything else until now. The Gove website even quotes the NRS showing there isn't any discrepancy here. 

No Covid-19 deaths for 13 days, throw aside your bias and join me on congratulating the SNP approach why not? 

[Bud the Baker]

6 minutes ago, Doakes said:

I think a big part of the problem is that we assume experts knew what was going to happen

In reality, a lot of it was guess work...

Mistakes have been made in every country (except maybe New Zealand)

The important thing is what happens next

 

.....and Taiwan which has a far greater population density than NZ, being an island could have been an advantage for us, unfortunately it was one that was squandered.

[Sue Denim]

A lesson in excess deaths and the differences in accounting of Covid deaths for you @bazil85 and why you can’t compare Covid deaths between countries and why excess deaths are the gold standard.

Below is a table I’ve put together of deaths over the last 2 comparable weeks between the ONS and NRS ( NRS stats are published almost a week earlier than ONS so I’ve used the prior 2 NRS weeks).

As you can see, excess deaths are now negative between the 3 countries, ie, they are below the 3 year average.

And, as you can see, the negative excess deaths have been greater in England than in Scotland and Wales.

Yet, despite this, the number of Covid deaths in England has been far greater than in Scotland and Wales.

Now there are really on 2 explanations for this:

1. England has a different basis of registering Covid deaths than Scotland and Wales

Or

2. There are far more people dying of non Covid causes in Scotland and Wales, presumably because these countries are concentrating their health services more on trying to stop Covid deaths.

Either way, both explanations highlight why you cannot focus solely on the Covid deaths. You need to look at the bigger picture - excess deaths.

 

 

[Sue Denim]

2 minutes ago, bazil85 said:

Nope not at all, I will always admit when I get something wrong. Maybe you should try it? I mixed up the meaning. 

I choose to believe them over you given you've been wrong on practically everything else until now. The Gove website even quotes the NRS showing there isn't any discrepancy here. 

 

Deary me, you have tripled down on it.

The NRS weekly report is from 20th July to 26th July and states that the average time between death and registration is 3 days. 
 

There have been 8 new deaths in the past 13 days baz.

 

[Sue Denim]

Here @bazil85, I’ll help you out.

Take a look at the Scottish government website 

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
 

It quite clearly states:

”0 new reported deaths of people who have tested positive”

Further down, under “More data on Covid 19 deaths” it states:

”A weekly report on Covid 19 deaths (including those where Covid 19 is suspected) is available from NRS”

This weekly report is based on actual registrations of what is actually on the death certificate.

[Sue Denim]

52 minutes ago, Bud the Baker said:

.....and Taiwan which has a far greater population density than NZ, being an island could have been an advantage for us, unfortunately it was one that was squandered.

Let’s assume that we’d closed all borders at the start of January and not a single case of Covid had slipped through.

What would we have achieved?

The average person who has died with Covid has been beyond the age of life expectancy and had 2 other co morbidities. These are people who would have died in the months to come, either from their other morbidities or from catching some other virus or illness. 
 

If lockdown works - and I don’t believe it does - then we could lockdown every winter to prolong the lives of these vulnerable people for a few more months.

But you wouldn’t support that, would you?

If you were in a care home in your 80s with dementia and heart disease, would you really want the rest of the population to lockdown in order that you didn’t catch a virus and prolong your life by a few weeks?

I know I certainly wouldn’t. 
 

And let’s say we had avoided any Covid infections, this spring. What then? Keep the borders closed until a vaccine comes along?
 

Let’s say a vaccine comes along by next summer, the fact is that most of the vulnerable group will already have died. It would be pointless. 

And what if an effective vaccine takes years to come along? Stay shut until then?

And just a final point on New Zealand.
 

The fact is that scientists don’t really know how respiratory viruses are spread. They don’t know why these viruses are seasonal, where virus go between the seasons, why epidemics are so explosive and end so abruptly and various other conundrums.

Different countries in different parts of the world have been affected differently and we don’t really know why.

Maybe being an island and closing borders early ‘saved’ New Zealand. But then again, New Zealand is far south. It’s interesting that, in South America, the experience of Argentina and Uruguay is markedly different from day, Brazil, Peru, Mexico, etc.

Maybe New Zealand will suffer when they reopen? Unless they plan to stay closed forever? 

People have looked at South Korea’s aggressive test and trace programme as the reason why they haven’t been as badly affected. Yet Japan did bugger all testing and didn’t lockdown and wasn’t badly affected either.

Is it to do with obesity? Vitamin D? Sunlight? Temperature? Humidity? Other factors?

The fact is that we just don’t know.

In my opinion, attempts to stop this virus is akin to King Canute attempting to stop the tide.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2870528/

Edited July 29, 2020 by Sue Denim

[Guest TPAFKATS]

Wales - hospital discharges did not increase care home risk.

Scotland - what went wrong in Scotland's care homes.

Hmm

[Guest TPAFKATS]

I am certainly looking for nothing from you - sympathy, empathy or anything else you arrogant oaf. [emoji1787][emoji1787]

What a predictable reply. Your lack of self awareness is shining through once more.

Byw, I didn't say you were looking for sympathy or empathy. Let's face it though, as you don't possess either of these qualities you could do with any donations.

[bazil85]

1 hour ago, Sue Denim said:

A lesson in excess deaths and the differences in accounting of Covid deaths for you @bazil85 and why you can’t compare Covid deaths between countries and why excess deaths are the gold standard.

Below is a table I’ve put together of deaths over the last 2 comparable weeks between the ONS and NRS ( NRS stats are published almost a week earlier than ONS so I’ve used the prior 2 NRS weeks).

As you can see, excess deaths are now negative between the 3 countries, ie, they are below the 3 year average.

And, as you can see, the negative excess deaths have been greater in England than in Scotland and Wales.

Yet, despite this, the number of Covid deaths in England has been far greater than in Scotland and Wales.

Now there are really on 2 explanations for this:

1. England has a different basis of registering Covid deaths than Scotland and Wales

Or

2. There are far more people dying of non Covid causes in Scotland and Wales, presumably because these countries are concentrating their health services more on trying to stop Covid deaths.

Either way, both explanations highlight why you cannot focus solely on the Covid deaths. You need to look at the bigger picture - excess deaths.

 

 

You still don't get it do you? If you still think there is only one variable regarding this pandemic and that's excessive deaths, and you don't have the common sense to realise there are other parameters, fine. It doesn't make you right. 

1 hour ago, Sue Denim said:

Deary me, you have tripled down on it.

The NRS weekly report is from 20th July to 26th July and states that the average time between death and registration is 3 days. 
 

There have been 8 new deaths in the past 13 days baz.

 

I choose to believe what we are being told. Can you name one thing the SNP has done that you agree with during this time? (or ever)

56 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

Here @bazil85, I’ll help you out.

Take a look at the Scottish government website 

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
 

It quite clearly states:

”0 new reported deaths of people who have tested positive”

Further down, under “More data on Covid 19 deaths” it states:

”A weekly report on Covid 19 deaths (including those where Covid 19 is suspected) is available from NRS”

This weekly report is based on actual registrations of what is actually on the death certificate.

No new Covid-19 deaths have been reported in Scotland for 13 days, the First Minister has announced.

Well done Scotland, well done SNP, well done everyone following the rules. 

[oaksoft]

1 hour ago, Doakes said:

I think a big part of the problem is that we assume experts knew what was going to happen

In reality, a lot of it was guess work...

Mistakes have been made in every country (except maybe New Zealand)

The important thing is what happens next

 

This has been my issue all along. People are looking for answers from "science" but that's not how science works in the short term. Scientists will disagree and dispute each others findings. It's a real mess until agreement is finally reached over many months, and actually it usually takes years. As a scientist (well former scientist now I suppose), this is our process and it works beautifully behind the scenes. There is no settled science on covid yet and IMO there won't be for at least another year or two.

What has happened has been a failure of politics not science. Science is doing what it does right now but things like the response to covid is what politicians are paid for. They take the best advice they can and then make political decisions because there isn't settled and agreed science for scientists to be making these decisions. Political leaders like Sturgeon (and all the others TBF) are hiding behind scientists and IMO that is utterly shameful. What is also shameful is the number of fellow scientists who have whored themselves for publicity over the last few months. That has done potentially irreparable damage to the reputation of science across the world.

Lockdown is a political decision not a scientific one.

Social distancing is a political decision not a scientific one.

Mandatory mask wearing (sigh!!!!) is a political decision not a scientific one.

Sturgeon and the others should be challenged on their insistence that this is all science-based. It just isn't. If it was, we'd save a fortune by shutting Holyrood down and letting scientists make the decisions for us. Why duplicate the effort?

Edited July 29, 2020 by oaksoft

[Sue Denim]

1 hour ago, bazil85 said:

You still don't get it do you? If you still think there is only one variable regarding this pandemic and that's excessive deaths, and you don't have the common sense to realise there are other parameters, fine. It doesn't make you right. 

 

Deary me.

For a start, it’s excess deaths, not excessive deaths.

Excess deaths cover ALL parameters , it covers multiple variables. A death is a death. The method of counting does not matter and cannot be manipulated. 
 

You clearly don’t know what you’re talking about 

You’ve totally contradicted yourself yet again.

epic fail 

Edited July 29, 2020 by Sue Denim

[Sue Denim]

1 hour ago, bazil85 said:

 

I choose to believe what we are being told. Can you name one thing the SNP has done that you agree with during this time? 

 

No, same as with the U.K. government 

[Sue Denim]

1 hour ago, bazil85 said:

 

No new Covid-19 deaths have been reported in Scotland for 13 days, the First Minister has announced.

 

As I referred you to before, the Scot Gov website explains that it’s no new deaths with a positive test.

Over the same time period, the NRS announced 8 new deaths with Covid on the death certificate. This includes deaths where was no positive test but Covid was suspected. This is the case with most reported care home deaths.

The Scottish government may well want to cover up what they’ve done in care homes and you may well support them in that.

But the facts are out there.

8 new deaths in the last 13 days (at least).

[Sue Denim]

1 hour ago, TPAFKATS said:

What a predictable reply. Your lack of self awareness is shining through once more.

Byw, I didn't say you were looking for sympathy or empathy. Let's face it though, as you don't possess either of these qualities you could do with any donations.

A post filled with irony 

[Ayrshire Saints]

This has been my issue all along. People are looking for answers from "science" but that's not how science works in the short term. Scientists will disagree and dispute each others findings. It's a real mess until agreement is finally reached over many months, and actually it usually takes years. As a scientist (well former scientist now I suppose), this is our process and it works beautifully behind the scenes. There is no settled science on covid yet and IMO there won't be for at least another year or two.
What has happened has been a failure of politics not science. Science is doing what it does right now but things like the response to covid is what politicians are paid for. They take the best advice they can and then make political decisions because there isn't settled and agreed science for scientists to be making these decisions. Political leaders like Sturgeon (and all the others TBF) are hiding behind scientists and IMO that is utterly shameful. What is also shameful is the number of fellow scientists who have whored themselves for publicity over the last few months. That has done potentially irreparable damage to the reputation of science across the world.
Lockdown is a political decision not a scientific one.
Social distancing is a political decision not a scientific one.
Mandatory mask wearing (sigh!!!!) is a political decision not a scientific one.
Sturgeon and the others should be challenged on their insistence that this is all science-based. It just isn't. If it was, we'd save a fortune by shutting Holyrood down and letting scientists make the decisions for us. Why duplicate the effort?

The politicians are not having to try very hard to hide behind the science as the scientists have put themselves out there like massive oak trees for the politicians to keek round. Their failure to question the "political" decisions is also dubious. As you alluded to the scientific guys and gals all over the UK are loving their days in the sun and that in turn is playing right into all the politicians hands. Why are they standing there backing masks (and by standing on the same platforms saying nothing to the contrary they are backing them) if they know they do very little good ?

[Sue Denim]

1 hour ago, TPAFKATS said:

Wales - hospital discharges did not increase care home risk.

Scotland - what went wrong in Scotland's care homes.

Hmm

Cut and pasted from a nationalist website, no doubt without even reading the article.

The obvious intention of TPAFTWAT is to claim that the BBC say one thing about Wales and another about Scotland.

In actual fact, the Wales story is not by the BBC but is about a study by Public Health Wales which claims that throwing old folk out of hospitals and into care homes didn’t cause the care home catastrophe. ( and you would expect them to claim that, wouldn’t you - they are hardly going to blame themselves!)

The Scotland story was about last night’s disclosure programme which was a bit more independent. 
 

Yet again, TPAFTWAT’s deceitful agenda shines through. 

 

 

[Sue Denim]

12 minutes ago, Ayrshire Saints said:

1 hour ago, oaksoft said:

This has been my issue all along. People are looking for answers from "science" but that's not how science works in the short term. Scientists will disagree and dispute each others findings. It's a real mess until agreement is finally reached over many months, and actually it usually takes years. As a scientist (well former scientist now I suppose), this is our process and it works beautifully behind the scenes. There is no settled science on covid yet and IMO there won't be for at least another year or two.
What has happened has been a failure of politics not science. Science is doing what it does right now but things like the response to covid is what politicians are paid for. They take the best advice they can and then make political decisions because there isn't settled and agreed science for scientists to be making these decisions. Political leaders like Sturgeon (and all the others TBF) are hiding behind scientists and IMO that is utterly shameful. What is also shameful is the number of fellow scientists who have whored themselves for publicity over the last few months. That has done potentially irreparable damage to the reputation of science across the world.
Lockdown is a political decision not a scientific one.
Social distancing is a political decision not a scientific one.
Mandatory mask wearing (sigh!!!!) is a political decision not a scientific one.
Sturgeon and the others should be challenged on their insistence that this is all science-based. It just isn't. If it was, we'd save a fortune by shutting Holyrood down and letting scientists make the decisions for us. Why duplicate the effort?

The politicians are not having to try very hard to hide behind the science as the scientists have put themselves out there like massive oak trees for the politicians to keek round. Their failure to question the "political" decisions is also dubious. As you alluded to the scientific guys and gals all over the UK are loving their days in the sun and that in turn is playing right into all the politicians hands. Why are they standing there backing masks (and by standing on the same platforms saying nothing to the contrary they are backing them) if they know they do very little good ?

Deary me, the village idiot has gone from one extreme to the other then back again in this debate.

One thing science can be clear about is that jumping a supermarket queue to shop at a time reserved for NHS staff is a low thing to do. 

[Sue Denim]

A worrying thing about the 1968-1970 Hong Kong flu pandemic.

First case in the UK isolated in August 1968.

It didn’t take off until the winter though due to seasonality and then petered out due to seasonality.

But it came back the following winter in a second wave, much worse than the first.....

And the second wave occurred despite a vaccine having been developed.....

Edited July 29, 2020 by Sue Denim

[Sue Denim]

Hey @bazil85, article on the BBC today says 

“News of the cluster came as the National Records of Scotland said the number of deaths linked to coronavirus had increased very slightly, with Covid-19 mentioned on eight death certificates in the week to Sunday

This was an increase of two deaths from the six that were recorded the previous week.

Ms Sturgeon said numbers were likely to fluctuate at such a low level, pointing out that the overall number of deaths in Scotland was below the five-year average.

So, not only were there 8 deaths in Scotland last week, the number is actually on the increase.

And Nicola Sturgeon acknowledged it.

Are you telling us @bazil85 that the NRS and Nasty Nic are lying?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-scotland-53581782

As for the cases reported in the article, maybe they should get them all retested like St Mirren did. Could well find most are false positives 😂

Edited July 29, 2020 by Sue Denim

[bazil85]

1 hour ago, Sue Denim said:

Hey @bazil85, article on the BBC today says 

“News of the cluster came as the National Records of Scotland said the number of deaths linked to coronavirus had increased very slightly, with Covid-19 mentioned on eight death certificates in the week to Sunday

This was an increase of two deaths from the six that were recorded the previous week.

Ms Sturgeon said numbers were likely to fluctuate at such a low level, pointing out that the overall number of deaths in Scotland was below the five-year average.

So, not only were there 8 deaths in Scotland last week, the number is actually on the increase.

And Nicola Sturgeon acknowledged it.

Are you telling us @bazil85 that the NRS and Nasty Nic are lying?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-scotland-53581782

As for the cases reported in the article, maybe they should get them all retested like St Mirren did. Could well find most are false positives 😂

I’m only quoting what NS has said regarding deaths for 13 days in a row, I choose to believe her I’ve thou and you’ve shared nothing that remotely suggests you’re better positioned than she is. 
 

Scotland is in a good position right now, we’ve made progress on the virus as well as letting a degree of normality return. Will you join me in congratulating them at this stage?
 

Lots of work to do, let’s keep adhering to social distance rules & hope we don’t have to go into another justified, worthwhile lockdown. 

Edited July 29, 2020 by bazil85