The Referendum Thread

[Drew]

As a republican, I am disappointed that a vote for independence won't rid us of the monarchy, but we'd have a greater chance of securing that outcome in the longer term than with maintaining the status quo. Similarly, I'd much rather we weren't in NATO as an independent nation, and I wouldn't lose too much sleep about leaving the EU either.

What is on the table is a start, however.

Vive la Revolution! (Stu Dickson is first against the wall, BTW).

[pozbaird]

As a republican, I am disappointed that a vote for independence won't rid us of the monarchy, but we'd have a greater chance of securing that outcome in the longer term than with maintaining the status quo. Similarly, I'd much rather we weren't in NATO as an independent nation, and I wouldn't lose too much sleep about leaving the EU either.

What is on the table is a start, however.

Vive la Revolution! (Stu Dickson is first against the wall, BTW).

Viva La Indipendiente Republica de la Escocia! Viva El Presidente Salmonde!

Brrr. I'm voting 'no' again - give me a shout next week, I'll have changed my mind again.

Edited February 13, 2014 by pozbaird

[Stuart Dickson]

From my first posts in this subject, I have asserted that there is NO INDEPENDENCE worth having if you keep the Queen, the pound and a few other things that Eck feels would scare the electorate.

Not sharing a currency IS simple economics. Currency Union without the corollary of ceding all sorts of political concessions is (it is generally agreed) the root cause of of the malaise with the Euro.

Why would the rUK want to do something like that? It would be daft economics.

Eck and Co have been asserting all will be easy-oasy about currency Union. Business, investors, banks have sought clarity for the sake of economic stability. Clarity has been offered by all parties: it won't be easy. It won't happen.

If there is Currency union it will be at a cost that is not acceptable for the rUK.

I conceded that it was only 90% economics. If you can't see that, I really don't mind.

I totally agree Bluto. It strikes me that the Nationalists here really don't understand democracy.

I listened to Labour MSP Henry McLeish's interview on the BBC. He appears to be a Unionist who beleives there can still be a currency union and he was imploring Scots not to be taken in by the rhetoric. What he was saying was completely accurate. There is no doubt you could have a currency union between Scotlands and the Rest of the UK. There's also no doubt that the Nationalists see this as their preferable outcome. Where it all falls down though is that Scotland - population of around 6m - cannot dictate to politicians representing a population of around 58m, almost all of whom would struggle to see a benefit to a currency union with a country that has told them to f**k off.

Now this is going to be the Nationalists problem over and over again as they attempt to dictate the terms of their membership to the EU - population of around 500m - and to NATO - population of around 900m.

[Stuart Dickson]

As a republican, I am disappointed that a vote for independence won't rid us of the monarchy, but we'd have a greater chance of securing that outcome in the longer term than with maintaining the status quo. Similarly, I'd much rather we weren't in NATO as an independent nation, and I wouldn't lose too much sleep about leaving the EU either.

What is on the table is a start, however.

Vive la Revolution! (Stu Dickson is first against the wall, BTW).

Not that really is a blatant whoring for votes.....

[Drew]

Not that really is a blatant whoring for votes.....

Everyone's a sucker for a populist vote winner!

[Drew]

Viva La Indipendiente Republica de la Escocia! Viva El Presidente Salmonde!

Brrr. I'm voting 'no' again - give me a shout next week, I'll have changed my mind again.

Ach, Salmond could easily be punted if we don't fancy him. Now, you can't say that with any confidence regarding the Westminster set.

Je ne veux pas être l'otage de la fortune!

[stlucifer]

Ach, Salmond could easily be punted if we don't fancy him. Now, you can't say that with any confidence regarding the Westminster set.

Je ne veux pas être l'otage de la fortune!

Exactly. I just wish those who want independence but NOT the SNP afterwards would voice the fact it isn't inextricably linked. In fact I think the YES campaign would have a far better chance of succeeding if they informed voters of this fact.

Once negotiations have taken place there is no reason why the electorate can't vote for THEIR choice of government. The SNP would have no real reason to be nor would anyone have reason to vote for it after it's base policy was fulfilled and I would bet that it wouldn't be long till their seperate factions joined their natural parties.

[pozbaird]

I still remain undecided. I have a problem with what I perceive to be a desperately negative campaign from 'better together', and despite how StuDick might try to spin things, I'm sorry, but being governed by chinless toff English Tories, in bed with that arsewipe Clegg sticks in my craw'.

On the other hand, while I understand in a post-independent Scotland, future elections could see Scotland governed by other parties - this IS being driven by the SNP, and it seems half-arsed independence where wee Eck wants to cherry pick the good bits of being in the Union that he wants to keep.

My gut tells me that Salmond and the SNP are driving the call for independence through ideology, and deep down, he's shitting it that a 'yes' vote might actually win the day and he needs to deliver big time. I think he'd be happy in himself with more power for Holyrood, and we can all put it to bed and crack on with living our lives.

Anyway - the splinters on my arse from genuinely being stuck on the fence are hurting like fcuk. That's the truth - I am torn between sticking or twisting.

Edited February 13, 2014 by pozbaird

[Lex]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26175401

Incase anyone missed Neil ripping Sturgeon to shreds today. I counted her avoiding a simple question 24 times, what did you count? The reason she avoided the question is because she doesn't know the answer to it.

She should have said ' Andrew, if we don't get a currency union, i have absolutely no f**king idea what we're going to do '. Because that is the position she and the yes campaign are in at the moment. Their whole economic policy for an independent Scotland has been ripped apart by the three perspective candidates for next chancellor of the UK today.

[pozbaird]

She wasn't ripped a new arse, she was ripped two.

[oaksoft]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26175401

Incase anyone missed Neil ripping Sturgeon to shreds today. I counted her avoiding a simple question 24 times, what did you count? The reason she avoided the question is because she doesn't know the answer to it.

She should have said ' Andrew, if we don't get a currency union, i have absolutely no f**king idea what we're going to do '. Because that is the position she and the yes campaign are in at the moment. Their whole economic policy for an independent Scotland has been ripped apart by the three perspective candidates for next chancellor of the UK today.

Nobody could accuse this of not being interesting.

Sturgeon can't answer it because there is no plan B and there won't be a need for it.

That's going to be tough to deal with against guys like Neil who'll just keep pressing on this.

As for Osborne. He'll now have to explain why he's committing to f**king over both Scotland AND the RUK.

He'll need to explain why it's in the RUK interests to introduce currency exchange rates.

He'll need to explain why RUK would keep the entire debt to itself.

He'll need to explain why he's acting like a spoilt twat.

It's fascinating stuff and going by the phone-ins on various stations, a lot of people are now talking about voting yes as a result of being threatened in this way.

Salmond is being accused of bullying too but here's the clincher.

Salmond isn't threatening Scots who have a vote.

He's threatening people who can't harm him.

Osborne has just threatened millions of people who could easily vote against him.

It's absolutely heating up.

[Lex]

 

Nobody could accuse this of not being interesting.

Sturgeon can't answer it because there is no plan B and there won't be a need for it.

That's going to be tough to deal with against guys like Neil who'll just keep pressing on this.

As for Osborne. He'll now have to explain why he's committing to f**king over both Scotland AND the RUK.

He'll need to explain why it's in the RUK interests to introduce currency exchange rates.

He'll need to explain why RUK would keep the entire debt to itself.

He'll need to explain why he's acting like a spoilt twat.

 

It's fascinating stuff and going by the phone-ins on various stations, a lot of people are now talking about voting yes as a result of being threatened in this way.

 

Salmond is being accused of bullying too but here's the clincher.

Salmond isn't threatening Scots who have a vote.

He's threatening people who can't harm him.

Osborne has just threatened millions of people who could easily vote against him.

 

It's absolutely heating up.

It's not just Osbourne that's committed to it, it's Balls and Alexander too. The rights and wrongs of the decision are not the issue, the issue is the decision has been made. No currency union with an independent Scotland.

The rest of the post is a load of rambling nonsense typical of yourself. My favourite bit was ' going by the phone ins '.

:

[Drew]

HOLD THE FRONT PAGE!!!!

POLITICIAN DOESN'T GIVE A STRAIGHT ANSWER TO A QUESTION!

[buddiecat]

well they have gone and said it - no pound for an independent scotland, many on here said this could not happen,now it's been said it would happen are you all just going to ignore this statement - a la sturgeon,i felt embarrassed for her, her and salmonds arrogant view that the pound would be kept has been blown out of the water and they have no answer to it.

the games a bogey now as they have np plan B

[linwood buddie]

Maybe the Plan B was the Euro, you can just see it now a Yes vote sending us down the same path as Ireland, Greece ,Spain and any other country that is in the shit thanks too being part of it.

[Drew]

well they have gone and said it - no pound for an independent scotland, many on here said this could not happen,now it's been said it would happen are you all just going to ignore this statement - a la sturgeon,i felt embarrassed for her, her and salmonds arrogant view that the pound would be kept has been blown out of the water and they have no answer to it.

the games a bogey now as they have np plan B

This is a totally uninformed statement.

Now, if you had said that Westminster based political leaders had pronounced that there would be no currency union, I might be able to take you a little more seriously.

An independent Scotland could use the pound. Of course it could. In the same way that Hong Kong uses the US dollar.

The issue would be that the other features of a currency union would not be in place, but that would require a more sophisticated analysis and consideration. If you find it easier to simply buy into the no pound for an independent Scotland tag-line, then so be it. Let's hope the majority of your fellow Scots are capable of a slightly more measured approach.

Edited February 13, 2014 by Drew

[buddiecat]

This is a totally uninformed statement.

Now, if you had said that Westminster based political leaders had pronounced that there would be no currency union, I might be able to take you a little more seriously.

An independent Scotland could use the pound. Of course it could. In the same way that Hong Kong uses the US dollar.

The issue would be that the other features of a currency union would not be in place, but that would require a more sophisticated analysis and consideration. If you find it easier to simply buy into the no pound for an independent Scotland tag-line, then so be it. Let's hope the majority of your fellow Scots are capable of a slightly more measured approach.

the slightly more measured approach being that it will have different exchange rates - therefore not the same pound.but putting it your way would not have helped me scare people into voting no

[Drew]

the slightly more measured approach being that it will have different exchange rates - therefore not the same pound.but putting it your way would not have helped me scare people into voting no

Different exchange rates among many other factors. They are only scary if you believe them to be so. I'm not hung up on currency union.

Currency union is deemed by the SNP to be the best option. It is hardly likely that they will be drawn into revealing what are their second, third and fourth preferred options. Can anyone point me to a political party who has adopted such an approach?

For what its worth, I would prefer if there was clarity as to the viable alternative options, but I'm not expecting the Scottish government to provide that information at the moment. This is a political issue just now, and will remain as such until the day after the referendum. If push comes to shove, an independent Scotland could continue to use the pound while exploring the best options. Not ideal, but almost inevitable in any event as the financial and administrative infrastructure for any alternative would not be in place in any event.

There is a great deal of brinksmanship going on just now, and anyone who is waiting for either faction to blink first better be in for the long haul.

ETA: it is worth bearing in mind that included in the perceived benefits of a currency union would be that the BoE would be the lender of the last resort, and there would be provision for quantitative easing.

Hmm...

For me, a nation's government should be the lender of the last resort. As such, a future government of an independent Scotland should, as quickly as reasonably practicable, ensure that it has sufficient reserves to act as the provider of liquidity. As such, prudent fiscal policies should be the order of the day. Sounds sensible to me. This is what Iceland failed to do, and you know how that ended.

As for quantitative easing, is printing money really a good way of responding to financial crisis? I can't say I'm terribly convinced.

For me, currency union ain't all its cracked up to be.

Edited February 13, 2014 by Drew

[buddiecat]

Different exchange rates among many other factors. They are only scary if you believe them to be so. I'm not hung up on currency union.

Currency union is deemed by the SNP to be the best option. It is hardly likely that they will be drawn into what are their second, third and fourth preferred options. Can anyone point me to a political party who has adopted such an approach?

For what its worth, I would prefer if there was clarity as to the viable alternative options, but I'm not expecting the Scottish government to provide that information at the moment. This is a political issue just now, and will remain as such until the day after the referendum. If push comes to shove, an independent Scotland could continue to use the pound while exploring the best options. Not ideal, but almost inevitable in any event as the financial and administrative infrastructure for any alternative would not be in place in any event.

There is a great deal of brinksmanship going on just now, and anyone who is waiting for either faction to blink first better be in for the long haul.

i'm not to fussed about the currency issue either,and as you point out there will be no clarity until after the vote,it is however very worrying that there is no certain option on currency being put forward by the yes campaign

[Drew]

i'm not to fussed about the currency issue either,and as you point out there will be no clarity until after the vote,it is however very worrying that there is no certain option on currency being put forward by the yes campaign

Well, their certain option is currency union. I think it would be naive to expect them to cede ground on this point.

There are alternatives. This is quite clear. The question remains, however, as to what are the best options.

[groucho]

Tory boy George Osborne has been scared by recent polls showing momentum behind a Yes vote and is bluffing on currency to scare us into voting No. Even if he was serious, Scotland has options on currency and does not need to ask for Westminster's permission to continue using the pound. Yes it would be sensible to assess other options which Scotland has available to it.

Scotland can continue to use the pound as its currency, benefit from a more stable financial system and (since Westminster would not be sharing UK assets) be completely debt-free upon independence. Added to the fact that if Westminster says no to a currency zone, it will do huge damage to the UK balance of payments and businesses south of the border. George Osborne knows this and that is why in my opinion he is bluffing.

I will say again every time the Tories open their mouths more people join the Yes camp .

as someone famous once said ,New Labour , Liberal and Conservative parties three cheeks of the same arse

[oaksoft]

Currency union is deemed by the SNP to be the best option. It is hardly likely that they will be drawn into revealing what are their second, third and fourth preferred options. Can anyone point me to a political party who has adopted such an approach?

For what its worth, I would prefer if there was clarity as to the viable alternative options, but I'm not expecting the Scottish government to provide that information at the moment. This is a political issue just now, and will remain as such until the day after the referendum. If push comes to shove, an independent Scotland could continue to use the pound while exploring the best options. Not ideal, but almost inevitable in any event as the financial and administrative infrastructure for any alternative would not be in place in any event.

I agree that of course they'll have plan B, C and D.

As much as I'd like to know what those plans are IMO they can't talk about them because it will leave them fighting attacks on more than one front.

I think this is what Osborne wanted to try and do - to force the SNP to declare all of their hand.

IMO that plan B is probably to retain the pound, negotiate hard and then let the public vote on it if we require a new currency.

Here's another side of the matter. How long will big business allow Osborne to keep this artificial uncertainty going before they start pressuring him to stop behaving like a twat?

This isn't just a battle between the Yes and No sides. Business leaders will start to cause absolute havoc for both sides if oen or other deliberately causes a threat to their future. This won't be a Scottish company moving south. It'll be a major corporation telling Osborne that they'll be leaving the UK shores.

Osborne has overplayed his hand here. I'm certain of it.

Edited February 13, 2014 by oaksoft

[bluto]

Well, their certain option is currency union. I think it would be naive to expect them to cede ground on this point.

There are alternatives. This is quite clear. The question remains, however, as to what are the best options.

I think the big problem arising from today, Drew, is that the SNP kept asserting this would be the way they would be going with the currency (after saying they'd go with the Euro as sterling was a millstone) and the other side of the divorce has unanimously asserted this would not now happen. Shit creek and paddleless.

Whatever the rUK side says it's blamed, When it doesn't comment, it's being stupid and childish: when it does it's bullying.

Tory boy George Osborne has been scared by recent polls showing momentum behind a Yes vote and is bluffing on currency to scare us into voting No. Even if he was serious, Scotland has options on currency and does not need to ask for Westminster's permission to continue using the pound. Yes it would be sensible to assess other options which Scotland has available to it.

Scotland can continue to use the pound as its currency, benefit from a more stable financial system and (since Westminster would not be sharing UK assets) be completely debt-free upon independence. Added to the fact that if Westminster says no to a currency zone, it will do huge damage to the UK balance of payments and businesses south of the border. George Osborne knows this and that is why in my opinion he is bluffing.

I will say again every time the Tories open their mouths more people join the Yes camp .

as someone famous once said ,New Labour , Liberal and Conservative parties three cheeks of the same arse

Panama , Monaco and other places 'use' the dollar but have absolutely no say, no input on economic strategy. Whatever US does they have to work around it. So would it be for Scotland. To me that is NO independence.

And if you think denying Scotland entry into a currency union with rUK would do damage to rUK balance of payments, reflect on the fact that England's trade with Scotland represents about a 1/7th of its trade, whilst the other way round Scotland's is 3/4.

It may be a bluff. I certainly don't believe it is. And I certainly don't know whether to trust your assertion or that of Osborne, Balls and Alexander, but I know which country would be most hurt by voting for the wrong answer.

Edited February 13, 2014 by bluto

[Bud Bundy]

It's not just Osbourne that's committed to it, it's Balls and Alexander too. The rights and wrongs of the decision are not the issue, the issue is the decision has been made. No currency union with an independent Scotland.

The rest of the post is a load of rambling nonsense typical of yourself. My favourite bit was ' going by the phone ins '.

: :

Oh Ffs Grand Master Fud, You Don't half type one Load of Shite ! Hypothetical Question being spouted by Your Unionist Bawbags from Westminster ? The sooner We get rid of Cnuts Like Fanny Allexander, Ed No Balls, And The Eton wanker Osbourne, The Better ? Whatever happened To, The Scottish Conservatives, Scottish Labour, And The Scottish Liberal democrats - Fcuk all, That's what, Because the are ruled By that House of ill Repute down in London. Out of Interest what Unionist Political party do you support , And what Flute Band / Masonic Lodge are you a Member of ?

[groucho]

I think the big problem arising from today, Drew, is that the SNP kept asserting this would be the way they would be going with the currency (after saying they'd go with the Euro as sterling was a millstone) and the other side of the divorce has unanimously asserted this would not now happen. Shit creek and paddleless.

Whatever the rUK side says it's blamed, When it doesn't comment, it's being stupid and childish: when it does it's bullying.

Panama , Monaco and other places 'use' the dollar but have absolutely no say, no input on economic strategy. Whatever US does they have to work around it. So would it be for Scotland. To me that is NO independence.

And if you think denying Scotland entry into a currency union with rUK would do damage to rUK balance of payments, reflect on the fact that England's trade with Scotland represents about a 1/7th of its trade, whilst the other way round Scotland's is 3/4.

It may be a bluff. I certainly don't believe it is. And I certainly don't know whether to trust your assertion or that of Osborne, Balls and Alexander, but I know which country would be most hurt by voting for the wrong answer.

This politicking was predicted…

When Osborne first tried his sabre-rattling over currency, Professor David Blanchflower, a former member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, put things in the right perspective: “There are clearly things to be worked out but a lot of this sounds like political posturing rather than economics”.

Before that, the expert economists on the Fiscal Commission Working Group had cautioned “it is important to acknowledge that political considerations will play a role and may cloud pre-referendum comments and policy statements. However, these are likely to differ from the actual decisions taken post-referendum when agreement is likely to take place where there are common interests”.

Even Danny Alexander, said prior to Osborne’s first round of sabre rattling “I have no doubt that both the UK and Scotland would – if it came to it – negotiate Scotland’s independence in a responsible manner”. Alistair Darling has described a currency union as “logical” and “desirable” in the event of independence