Coronavirus

[bazil85]

54 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

This ludicrous article in the Guardian is a taste of what’s to come in the UK

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/28/coronavirus-spike-spain-pandemic-mistakes

If you start doing more testing and test groups of people you didn’t test before then you’ll find more cases

doh!

if we started testing people now for influenza then we’d find young, fit, healthy and asymptomatic people with influenza virus.

And although this will likely be a mild year for flu deaths (as many of the vulnerable population have already been killed by Johnson and Sturgeon’s closure of the NHS), there will still probably be 20k flu deaths - more than there will be of Covid deaths.

If saving lives really is the issue then why don’t we start testing for flu now and lockdown when the winter starts? eh @bazil85?

But I think we all know that human life isn’t really @bazil85’s priority.

He wouldn’t have supported closing the NHS if it were. 
 

We’re heading for another needless lockdown 

That sounds awful similar to what Trump said a little over a month ago, "we have more cases because we are doing more testing" fast forward a month and the registered deaths start to follow suit (very well documented the linked delay).

Given this very clear pattern that has been shown throughout the pandemic and given the countless times you have been wrong, it's near unthinkable you would STILL use this in the example of Spain. As much as I hope I'm wrong, it seems you have set yourself up for another failure in a month+ time if Spain's death toll starts to follow the virus spike. 

It's also pretty curious that you think the overwhelming majority of governments and the collective expert advice they've received is wrong and still stand by this being "just another flu" If it was just the flu, that relies on all these countries the world over getting near identical data from an annual flu and all jumping to a different conclusion, sound likely?

You spinning my view after months of openly willing the world to kill far more people is ineffective but again I'm happy to be your coping mechanism. You haven't been a big enough person to accept the evidence that has pointed to you being categorically wrong on multiple fronts, and you've doubled down on your errors. 

 

[TPAFKA Jersey 2]

14 hours ago, portmahomack saint said:

As someone who works in a High Risk environment I don't care what kind of logo people have on their mask, does it really matter 

 

4 hours ago, Doakes said:

Not a huge fan of Sturgeon at times but she's been great throughout this period

If folk think an SNP mask looks good then fair play I guess 

Bet they're not as good as our "One Town One Team" masks though   

 

 

I think the point wasn’t that people might want to wear SNP branded masks and more the allegation that Sturgeon said politicians shouldn’t be making political capital out of the crisis and then started selling branded face masks. 

[Doakes]

1 hour ago, Sue Denim said:

Yeh, Sturgeon has been great.

Apart from all the thousands of people who’ve died during the crisis as a direct result of her policies. 
 

Apart from that she’s been wonderful. 

That's more of a worldwide theme than a Scotland theme, unless you live in Belarus where the recommendation was to drink more vodka and go for more saunas

[Sue Denim]

31 minutes ago, Doakes said:

That's more of a worldwide theme than a Scotland theme, unless you live in Belarus where the recommendation was to drink more vodka and go for more saunas

I’m not sure that throwing sick and elderly patients out of hospital and into care homes and stopping people from gaining access to health care services was followed in every country worldwide?

And of those that did, Scotland certainly “excelled” with one of the worst mortality rates in the world.

[bazil85]

4 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

I’m not sure that throwing sick and elderly patients out of hospital and into care homes and stopping people from gaining access to health care services was followed in every country worldwide?

And of those that did, Scotland certainly “excelled” with one of the worst mortality rates in the world.

Again what would your solution be if it was your choice and there was absolutely no lockdown, where would you have put these people? In the hospitals that factually would have had far more Covid19 sick people in them or in their care-homes? 

But you said previously lockdown has saved no one, so you must accept the Covid19 excess mortality stats are irrelevant.

Yet more contradiction. 

[Sue Denim]

1 hour ago, bazil85 said:

That sounds awful similar to what Trump said a little over a month ago, "we have more cases because we are doing more testing" fast forward a month and the registered deaths start to follow suit (very well documented the linked delay).

Given this very clear pattern that has been shown throughout the pandemic and given the countless times you have been wrong, it's near unthinkable you would STILL use this in the example of Spain. As much as I hope I'm wrong, it seems you have set yourself up for another failure in a month+ time if Spain's death toll starts to follow the virus spike. 

It's also pretty curious that you think the overwhelming majority of governments and the collective expert advice they've received is wrong and still stand by this being "just another flu" If it was just the flu, that relies on all these countries the world over getting near identical data from an annual flu and all jumping to a different conclusion, sound likely?

You spinning my view after months of openly willing the world to kill far more people is ineffective but again I'm happy to be your coping mechanism. You haven't been a big enough person to accept the evidence that has pointed to you being categorically wrong on multiple fronts, and you've doubled down on your errors. 

 

Deary me, you’re all over the place here. 
 

Deaths in the southern US states are on the up - exactly as I stated they would do in numerous posts!

Read my seasonality posts.

Regarding Spain, I’m quite sure you’ll find a way of spinning why the death toll hasn’t spiked, just like you’ve done with Sweden.

But then again, as I’ve said in numerous posts, I’m expecting Covid deaths to increase in the winter.

Doh!

Your last 2 paragraphs barely make sense. However, please not that more than one country and more than one US state did not lockdown.  The fact is that the countries which did lockdown have had the highest number of deaths. 

[Sue Denim]

Just now, bazil85 said:

Again what would your solution be if it was your choice and there was absolutely no lockdown, where would you have put these people? In the hospitals that factually would have had far more Covid19 sick people in them or in their care-homes? 

But you said previously lockdown has saved no one, so you must accept the Covid19 excess mortality stats are irrelevant.

Yet more contradiction. 

Good to note that you agree that you are contradicting yourself.

Your post makes no sense. 
 

All the people who were thrown out of hospital should have stayed in hospital. 

And everyone who need hospital treatment should have received it.

The NHS had more than enough capacity.

And locking down did nothing to slow the spread. We were already past the peak of infection when lockdown happened.

It’s not that difficult.

Your “solution” of throwing people out of hospital and denying people access to the health system is both callous and lethal. 

 

[Doakes]

24 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

I’m not sure that throwing sick and elderly patients out of hospital and into care homes and stopping people from gaining access to health care services was followed in every country worldwide?

And of those that did, Scotland certainly “excelled” with one of the worst mortality rates in the world.

Outside of New Zealand, I'm not sure that any country did that well. Maybe we could make a bid during the transfer window for Jucinda Ardern to be our new FM

[Sue Denim]

ONS stats out today.

Weekly deaths last week 3% below the average. They’ve been below the average for the last 5 weeks now.

The number of deaths last week were 37% lower than in the second week in January this year?

Worth noting that 295 Covid deaths reported. Lower than the ludicrous figures being put out by PPE every day (which are under investigation) but still not feasible.

Thats 2,582 Covid deaths in the last 5 weeks despite deaths being below the 5 year average. 
 

So either, the Covid deaths are being over stated or the number of people dying with non Covid causes is way below the average. 

[Sue Denim]

3 minutes ago, Doakes said:

Outside of New Zealand, I'm not sure that any country did that well. Maybe we could make a bid during the transfer window for Jucinda Ardern to be our new FM

Scotland did worse than virtually all countries and the main reasons for that were throwing sick and elderly people out of hospital and denying people access to the NHS. 
 

Jucinda Arden or my cat, it doesn’t really matter. Anyone with half a brain could have forseen what a catastrophe that would turn out.

[Bud the Baker]

The quarantine on people returning from all areas of Spain is the inevitable overreaction to BJ/Tory Govt's dithering over use of facemasks in shops down south. BJs OTT reaction has however prevented NS from her usual strategy of being 1% tougher than Westminster although I suspect she'll make up for it by keeping the quarantine for an extra week.

[Doakes]

32 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

ONS stats out today.

Weekly deaths last week 3% below the average. They’ve been below the average for the last 5 weeks now.

The number of deaths last week were 37% lower than in the second week in January this year?

Worth noting that 295 Covid deaths reported. Lower than the ludicrous figures being put out by PPE every day (which are under investigation) but still not feasible.

Thats 2,582 Covid deaths in the last 5 weeks despite deaths being below the 5 year average. 
 

So either, the Covid deaths are being over stated or the number of people dying with non Covid causes is way below the average. 

I regularly look at the NS Scotland deaths table - it is weird that the way people are dying is seeming to change - but the numbers of people dying (compared to previous years) is pretty much the same. Off the top of my head, 2015 was actually a worse year for people dying.

Perhaps improving hygiene and behaviors has a positive impact on life expectancy. I read a post the other day that the average age of covid deaths is actually higher than our life expectancy - so using that logic - any further lockdown measures would seem way over the top. Time to move on and get back to normality.

[bazil85]

1 hour ago, Sue Denim said:

Deary me, you’re all over the place here. 
 

Deaths in the southern US states are on the up - exactly as I stated they would do in numerous posts!

Read my seasonality posts.

Regarding Spain, I’m quite sure you’ll find a way of spinning why the death toll hasn’t spiked, just like you’ve done with Sweden.

But then again, as I’ve said in numerous posts, I’m expecting Covid deaths to increase in the winter.

Doh!

Your last 2 paragraphs barely make sense. However, please not that more than one country and more than one US state did not lockdown.  The fact is that the countries which did lockdown have had the highest number of deaths. 

What seasonality is impacting the southern states of the USA given they're practically mid-summer? Is Covid19 linked to high temperatures? Did someone forget to tell that to Spring-time Northern Europe? lol. 

Average Florida daytime temperature right now - 33 degrees

Average UK temperature highest recorded Covid week - 8.4 degrees. 

There seems little to no correlation in what you are claiming. 

As for Spain vs Sweden, we'll have to wait to see if deaths mirror recorded cases in Spain like they have done practically everywhere else in the world. If they do will you accept you were wrong regarding the seasonality claim? 

Sweden has been well covered, you believing we can do a like for like between Sweden & the UK and ignore every other factor other than deaths recorded is irrelevant. But let's look at those stats in isolation for a few other countries. 

Sweden Covid 19 deaths - 5,700

Denmark, Finland & Norway combined Covid 19 deaths - 1,197 

Another point you've been wrong on. 

Edited July 28, 2020 by bazil85

[bazil85]

1 hour ago, Sue Denim said:

Good to note that you agree that you are contradicting yourself.

Your post makes no sense. 
 

All the people who were thrown out of hospital should have stayed in hospital. 

And everyone who need hospital treatment should have received it.

The NHS had more than enough capacity.

And locking down did nothing to slow the spread. We were already past the peak of infection when lockdown happened.

It’s not that difficult.

Your “solution” of throwing people out of hospital and denying people access to the health system is both callous and lethal. 

 

As I have said before, one of the oldest and least effective argument points online. Claiming someone is doing something they're not.

So stayed in hospital even though there was massive risk to their health and there factually would have been far more Covid19 people sick in these hospitals if we followed your policy where there was zero lockdown? Again you show I'm right that you'd rather gamble with human life and protect the economy. 

The evidence points to the NHS very likely being overwhelmed without a lockdown. It hit a certain level of capacity and we know that more contact = more transmission, that is scientific fact. You come into contact with fewer people, fewer people get the virus. Basic common sense.

You appear to be wrong that it didn't slow the spread, we can see this by comparing like for like areas with more relaxed or lifted lockdown measures. 

My view is and remains one that protects human life. I have the overwhelming majority scientific view on my side it would appear. 

Edited July 28, 2020 by bazil85

[bazil85]

1 hour ago, Sue Denim said:

ONS stats out today.

Weekly deaths last week 3% below the average. They’ve been below the average for the last 5 weeks now.

The number of deaths last week were 37% lower than in the second week in January this year?

Worth noting that 295 Covid deaths reported. Lower than the ludicrous figures being put out by PPE every day (which are under investigation) but still not feasible.

Thats 2,582 Covid deaths in the last 5 weeks despite deaths being below the 5 year average. 
 

So either, the Covid deaths are being over stated or the number of people dying with non Covid causes is way below the average. 

So saying "many more people will die due to lockdown than Covid19" remains wrong? 

[Sue Denim]

@bazil85

appreciate how cases peaked in Sweden long after the peak in deaths as a result of increased testing

comprehend how there has been no corresponding increase in deaths

and understand how the pandemic went away in Sweden without a lockdown
 

it’s not that difficult 

 

 

Edited July 28, 2020 by Sue Denim

[Sue Denim]

[Guest TPAFKATS]

The quarantine on people returning from all areas of Spain is the inevitable overreaction to BJ/Tory Govt's dithering over use of facemasks in shops down south. BJs OTT reaction has however prevented NS from her usual strategy of being 1% tougher than Westminster although I suspect she'll make up for it by keeping the quarantine for an extra week.

I'm sure there's a bit of brexit "negotiating" going on as well.

[bazil85]

3 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

@bazil85

appreciate how cases peaked in Sweden long after the peak in deaths as a result of increased testing

comprehend how there has been no corresponding increase in deaths

and understand how the pandemic went away in Sweden went away without a lockdown
 

it’s not that difficult 

 

 

Yes you are right, Sweden didn't do enough testing early on which has skewed their figures greatly. As they increased their testing, positive results went up and then the virus began to drop off. As you can however see , the virus cases have came down in Sweden and the death rates appear to reflect that trend.

Evidence points to it likely being a country that would only have had a few hundred deaths (at worst) instead of over 5,000 if it had locked-down. We can see evidence for this by looking at neighbouring countries. A shameful economy over life approach was taken, we know that's your preference but it's not mine and never will be.

Meanwhile more relevant examples where starting to do more testing (Sweden wasn't doing enough testing) is not what has driven figures include:

USA

Saudi Arabia

Iran

Israel

From what I can tell there isn't a great deal of focus on Spain cases going up just because there's more testing, if that was the case we would see a relatively consistent spread over the country. There are pockets popping up which points to it being linked to relaxed lockdown measures.

Again if in a month+ deaths start to mirror the increases, will you accept you were wrong? Or will you try and spin your way out of it like you have done with the "more people will die because of lockdown" incorrect claim? 

 

 

[Guest TPAFKATS]

I regularly look at the NS Scotland deaths table - it is weird that the way people are dying is seeming to change - but the numbers of people dying (compared to previous years) is pretty much the same. Off the top of my head, 2015 was actually a worse year for people dying.
Perhaps improving hygiene and behaviors has a positive impact on life expectancy. I read a post the other day that the average age of covid deaths is actually higher than our life expectancy - so using that logic - any further lockdown measures would seem way over the top. Time to move on and get back to normality.

If death numbers are same as other years during what is a pandemic, then I guess thats a ringing endorsement of lockdown.

It's not just the deaths though, there's a lot of younger folk with longterm poor health outcomes after covid.

[antrin]

14 minutes ago, bazil85 said:

Yes you are right, Sweden didn't do enough testing early on which has skewed their figures greatly. As they increased their testing, positive results went up and then the virus began to drop off. As you can however see , the virus cases have came down in Sweden and the death rates appear to reflect that trend.

Evidence points to it likely being a country that would only have had a few hundred deaths (at worst) instead of over 5,000 if it had locked-down. We can see evidence for this by looking at neighbouring countries. A shameful economy over life approach was taken, we know that's your preference but it's not mine and never will be.

Meanwhile more relevant examples where starting to do more testing (Sweden wasn't doing enough testing) is not what has driven figures include:

USA

Saudi Arabia

Iran

Israel

From what I can tell there isn't a great deal of focus on Spain cases going up just because there's more testing, if that was the case we would see a relatively consistent spread over the country. There are pockets popping up which points to it being linked to relaxed lockdown measures.

Again if in a month+ deaths start to mirror the increases, will you accept you were wrong? Or will you try and spin your way out of it like you have done with the "more people will die because of lockdown" incorrect claim? 

If there IS such evidence... I feel sure you would have pointed people towards it so we can share your pov?

You're still pissing pointlessly into wind.  Spinning ironically, from what I can tell...

 

There is no way that any sense can yet be made of all the irrelevant and clashing numbers that are being bandied about.

 

Hindsight MIGHT offer conviction.

[oaksoft]

20 minutes ago, antrin said:

If there IS such evidence... I feel sure you would have pointed people towards it so we can share your pov?

You're still pissing pointlessly into wind.  Spinning ironically, from what I can tell...

 

There is no way that any sense can yet be made of all the irrelevant and clashing numbers that are being bandied about.

 

Hindsight MIGHT offer conviction.

He's baziling everyone to death here.

Every other sane and reasonable person (on both sides of the argument by the way) understand that it will take some time to be certain whether lockdown is the way to deal with things like this.

In Scotland we are at the point where there really is very little justification for continuing lockdown. We have almost no live cases here, very few new ones each day and almost zero deaths. In the meantime, whilst Sturgeon continues to panic about potential deaths, hundreds of thousands are being denied treatment for their very real life threatening problems.

As for masks. If they are including holding a jumper or a scarf to your face (and they are) then IMO there is absolutely no chance that these are preventing anything. There is very recent peer reviewed science which states that categorically they do no real good. Unless jumper technology has made huge advancements in the last 10 weeks nothing will have changed.

Of course what Sturgeon says, the natters repeat ad nauseum as though she was the reincarnation of Jesus himself.

With people like bazil and TPAK thingy in the debate emoting like a pair of tweenies, you just can't have a decent discussion where people feel they can question what we are being told.

Edited July 28, 2020 by oaksoft

[Sue Denim]

2 hours ago, bazil85 said:

Yes you are right, Sweden didn't do enough testing early on which has skewed their figures greatly. As they increased their testing, positive results went up and then the virus began to drop off. As you can however see , the virus cases have came down in Sweden and the death rates appear to reflect that trend.

Evidence points to it likely being a country that would only have had a few hundred deaths (at worst) instead of over 5,000 if it had locked-down. We can see evidence for this by looking at neighbouring countries. A shameful economy over life approach was taken, we know that's your preference but it's not mine and never will be.

Meanwhile more relevant examples where starting to do more testing (Sweden wasn't doing enough testing) is not what has driven figures include:

USA

Saudi Arabia

Iran

Israel

From what I can tell there isn't a great deal of focus on Spain cases going up just because there's more testing, if that was the case we would see a relatively consistent spread over the country. There are pockets popping up which points to it being linked to relaxed lockdown measures.

Again if in a month+ deaths start to mirror the increases, will you accept you were wrong? Or will you try and spin your way out of it like you have done with the "more people will die because of lockdown" incorrect claim? 

 

 

All over the place again baz

Why just compare them with their neighbours?

Why not compare them with a country such as Scotland where the death rate has been higher?

And I’ve shared a number of graphs and figures I’m any case which shows that excess mortality in Sweden has been no different to their neighbours.

Both of these facts render your entire reply irrelevant. 

[Sue Denim]

2 hours ago, TPAFKATS said:

If death numbers are same as other years during what is a pandemic, then I guess thats a ringing endorsement of lockdown.

It's not just the deaths though, there's a lot of younger folk with longterm poor health outcomes after covid.

Deary me. You think that deaths this year are the same as other years?

You are utterly clueless. 
 

Then again, you’re the guy who stated that excess deaths in England were 3 times higher than in Scotland when in fact it’s only 15% higher.

And the long term issues caused to younger folk will be as a result of the economic damage of lockdown.

[Sue Denim]

2 hours ago, TPAFKATS said:

3 hours ago, Bud the Baker said:

The quarantine on people returning from all areas of Spain is the inevitable overreaction to BJ/Tory Govt's dithering over use of facemasks in shops down south. BJs OTT reaction has however prevented NS from her usual strategy of being 1% tougher than Westminster although I suspect she'll make up for it by keeping the quarantine for an extra week.

I'm sure there's a bit of brexit "negotiating" going on as well.

Deary me. Another tin foil hat conspiracy.