The Referendum Thread

[pozbaird]

I was listening to yet another 'analyst' and a sprinkling of private copmpanies weighing in to the debate with doom and gloom forecasts of what an independent Scotland would be up against, and it put me very much in mind of the Rangers/Sevco Armageddon debacle.

I wonder if Better Together have Neil Doncaster and Stewart Regan on their books....

Surely great news for the 'yes' campaign? We vote for independence, it goes tits up, we bounce back as 'The Scotland 5088' with all the history intact... Bannockburn, inventing the television, penicillin, Runrig at Loch Lomond, Fran and Anna, The Wembley Wizards, tarmacadam, Jimmy Johnstone, Billy Connolly on Parkinson.... the lot.

Easy! Mon' The Scotland.

[saintnextlifetime]

[Seaside Nipper]

fYI, there was a tremendous letter in Saturdays Herald..................must try to find link.

Anyway, a great piece of writing all about being Scottish, within the UK context, yet how, in general, normal peoples living standards and security in the 21st Century are being eroded, their confidence undermined, resulting in the twisted scenario or contention that we are still somehow 'better off' , being miserable together,how the fear of the unknown somehow shackles people to an eroding position , a position of disadvantage rather than having the confidence to vote for change, move forward with some gravitas and conviction to pursuing a future of change.

The 'facts' , for and against, well, they are merely by and large speculative , as I'm sure most people witness every eveing on the news, or in the press, merely pre determined by one's politics.

Today I'm slightly more Yes than No............I am currently now considering the proposition that most of the UK exists to support Londonshire. I'm having difficulty in expunging this thought from my head, it may take some time.

[Stuart Dickson]

Is that the Westminster Government that woefully under estimated the deficit after the previous one caused the deficit in the first place.

And for the record, its us as taxpayers that bail it out.

As for the rest, all you have to do is read back on this thread for the answers.

But you might not want to do that and see all the times you've been proved a liar.

Where exactly is the answer Cockles? Don't try to duck it. What does an Independent Scotland do when Oil prices fail to match the Scottish Government over optimistic predictions? Does it borrow more? Does it raise taxes? Or does it cut welfare and services failing to meet all it's pre referendum pledges? Or does it just ramp up taxation on the whisky industry to compensate? Is a "fairer society" really one where petrol and gas prices have to be extortionately high to meet the government revenue targets? How to you justify claims that every Scottish household would be wealthier when your own forecasts show you need oil, gas, food, travel etc to cost around 16% more per annum to meet your current spending levels?

Is it any wonder businesses are ready to up and leave if the Scottish turkeys vote for Christmas?

I haven't seen any credible , believable answers to any of that anywhere never mind on this forum. All we've had is Natsi soundbytes, Natsi propaganda, and fantasyland figures.

[Denbud]

Where exactly is the answer Cockles? Don't try to duck it. What does an Independent Scotland do when Oil prices fail to match the Scottish Government over optimistic predictions? Does it borrow more? Does it raise taxes? Or does it cut welfare and services failing to meet all it's pre referendum pledges? Or does it just ramp up taxation on the whisky industry to compensate? Is a "fairer society" really one where petrol and gas prices have to be extortionately high to meet the government revenue targets? How to you justify claims that every Scottish household would be wealthier when your own forecasts show you need oil, gas, food, travel etc to cost around 16% more per annum to meet your current spending levels?

Is it any wonder businesses are ready to up and leave if the Scottish turkeys vote for Christmas?

I haven't seen any credible , believable answers to any of that anywhere never mind on this forum. All we've had is Natsi soundbytes, Natsi propaganda, and fantasyland figures.

Is there any credible, believable answers that all the above wont happen if we are still part of the uk?

and what is it with you and all the Natsi shit, is no one allowed to have a differing opinion without being branded a natsi?

[Drew]

Today I'm slightly more Yes than No............I am currently now considering the proposition that most of the UK exists to support Londonshire. I'm having difficulty in expunging this thought from my head, it may take some time.

Why try to expunge it, when it seems valid. There is a strong element of colonialism inherent in the relationship between London/SE of England and the rest of the UK. This flies in the face of the centre right political dogma of decentralisation, and therein lies the irony.

Scotland, in common with other 'regions' of the UK, has increasingly become a hostage to fortune in terms of the prevailing political, economic, and socio-economic climate in London and its satellite conurbations and affluent rural neighbouring areas.

You know things are becoming entrenched when Tories themselves express alarm at the number of former Etonians shuffling the halls of power. However, as much as Michael Gove and Baroness Warsi choose to publically wring their hands over this, it won't be changing anytime soon. As I've mentioned on this very thread on several occasions, those who hold the balance of power won't be surrendering it anytime soon, as they have far, far too much to lose.

There is another irony evident in this situation, and that pertains to the high ideals of a meritocracy (another Tory favourite). With an increasing concentration of privately educated, old-school-tie wearing politicians, CEOs, and lawyers etc., the glass ceiling becomes increasingly impenetrable. People who are highly skilled and motivated will struggle to make inroads unless they are part of the set, or are 'quoted' in certain circles.

For me, the only realistic way of breaking away from this stranglehold is to take full control of the reins. Now, it pains me that the current independence model on the table doesn't go this far, but it is undoubtedly a huge step in the right direction. What is the alternative? Well, the status quo, and that's about it (forget all the devomax chat, it is condescending and disingenuous bluster at best). That's not an option for me. Time to take control, and make a better life for future generations of Scots. It would be great if it didn't have to be that way, but anyone who desires change, and believes that this can come about in the context of the current set-up is delusional in my view.

Edited March 24, 2014 by Drew

[Stuart Dickson]

Is there any credible, believable answers that all the above wont happen if we are still part of the uk?

and what is it with you and all the Natsi shit, is no one allowed to have a differing opinion without being branded a natsi?

Yep, the most recent budget. It showed that the UK deficit is being reduced year on year, whilst spending on healthcare, education and welfare continued to increase. We can also see that the coalition government managed this whilst cutting Income Tax for everyone through increases in personal allowances and with reductions to the top rate of tax.

Together the UK has a diverse range of industries. In London we have one of the worlds biggest stock exchanges. In Sunderland (Nissan), Ellesmere Port (Vauxhall), Cowley (BMW) and Swindon (Honda) we're proving that the UK is still fantastic at manufacturing and exporting popular and innovative cars. Latest figures show we built 1.5m cars and Commercial vehicles and 205m car engines in the UK last year many being exported all over the world. In Lancashire massive quantities of gas have been found ready for cheap and economical extraction. In Scotland we contribute to the overall UK well being with North Sea Oil and with our whisky industry. The Welsh too chuck in their bit with a strong camera manufacturing base in Pencoed that exports all around the world and with their aviation industry in Broughton, Together we're powerful and diverse. We share resources and together we've conquered the world to make this small island one of the most powerful in the world. Vote the wrong way in September and we could be breaking all of that up so that we can live in a country heavily reliant on high oil prices simply to meet our current commitments and a country where we better hope the wind keeps blowing the right way so we can still power whatever industry is left in this barron and desolate wasteland.

[Denbud]

Yep, the most recent budget. It showed that the UK deficit is being reduced year on year, whilst spending on healthcare, education and welfare continued to increase. We can also see that the coalition government managed this whilst cutting Income Tax for everyone through increases in personal allowances and with reductions to the top rate of tax.

Together the UK has a diverse range of industries. In London we have one of the worlds biggest stock exchanges. In Sunderland (Nissan), Ellesmere Port (Vauxhall), Cowley (BMW) and Swindon (Honda) we're proving that the UK is still fantastic at manufacturing and exporting popular and innovative cars. Latest figures show we built 1.5m cars and Commercial vehicles and 205m car engines in the UK last year many being exported all over the world. In Lancashire massive quantities of gas have been found ready for cheap and economical extraction. In Scotland we contribute to the overall UK well being with North Sea Oil and with our whisky industry. The Welsh too chuck in their bit with a strong camera manufacturing base in Pencoed that exports all around the world and with their aviation industry in Broughton, Together we're powerful and diverse. We share resources and together we've conquered the world to make this small island one of the most powerful in the world. Vote the wrong way in September and we could be breaking all of that up so that we can live in a country heavily reliant on high oil prices simply to meet our current commitments and a country where we better hope the wind keeps blowing the right way so we can still power whatever industry is left in this barron and desolate wasteland.

so in essence you are saying that we should stick together because of car building in england and camera's and aviation in wales? So other than the fact that the two industries which are unique to Scotland and cant be moved to somewhere more convenient for the coallition cause we should vote to give up any wealth they produce meet southern needs.

Before you go off on a natsi rant, I believe that the situation that this vote is causing will mean we are damned if we do and damned if we dont. I have no illusions that it will be easy in the event of a yes vote but I am 99% positive if we vote no then the westminster government will treat us like rides and use us as the best way of saving money by releasing the bare minimum to us and giving incentives to bring industries into southern Britain whilst ignoring the desolate waste land to the north after all they are too stupid to think for themselves and are happy to live off their pocket money.

[Denbud]

Yep, the most recent budget. It showed that the UK deficit is being reduced year on year, whilst spending on healthcare, education and welfare continued to increase. We can also see that the coalition government managed this whilst cutting Income Tax for everyone through increases in personal allowances and with reductions to the top rate of tax.

Together the UK has a diverse range of industries. In London we have one of the worlds biggest stock exchanges. In Sunderland (Nissan), Ellesmere Port (Vauxhall), Cowley (BMW) and Swindon (Honda) we're proving that the UK is still fantastic at manufacturing and exporting popular and innovative cars. Latest figures show we built 1.5m cars and Commercial vehicles and 205m car engines in the UK last year many being exported all over the world. In Lancashire massive quantities of gas have been found ready for cheap and economical extraction. In Scotland we contribute to the overall UK well being with North Sea Oil and with our whisky industry. The Welsh too chuck in their bit with a strong camera manufacturing base in Pencoed that exports all around the world and with their aviation industry in Broughton, Together we're powerful and diverse. We share resources and together we've conquered the world to make this small island one of the most powerful in the world. Vote the wrong way in September and we could be breaking all of that up so that we can live in a country heavily reliant on high oil prices simply to meet our current commitments and a country where we better hope the wind keeps blowing the right way so we can still power whatever industry is left in this barron and desolate wasteland.

Latest figures show we built 1.5m cars and Commercial vehicles and 205m car engines in the UK last year many being exported

really 205,000,000 car engines built in the uk in one year? over 560,000 per day!

[Seaside Nipper]

Why try to expunge it, when it seems valid. There is a strong element of colonialism inherent in the relationship between London/SE of England and the rest of the UK. This flies in the face of the centre right political dogma of decentralisation, and therein lies the irony.Scotland, in common with other 'regions' of the UK, has increasingly become a hostage to fortune in terms of the prevailing political, economic, and socio-economic climate in London and its satellite conurbations and affluent rural neighbouring areas.You know things are becoming entrenched when Tories themselves express alarm at the number of former Etonians shuffling the halls of power. However, as much as Michael Gove and Baroness Warsi choose to publically wring their hands over this, it won't be changing anytime soon. As I've mentioned on this very thread on several occasions, those who hold the balance of power won't be surrendering it anytime soon, as they have far, far too much to lose.There is another irony evident in this situation, and that pertains to the high ideals of a meritocracy (another Tory favourite). With an increasing concentration of privately educated, old-school-tie wearing politicians, CEOs, and lawyers etc., the glass ceiling becomes increasingly impenetrable. People who are highly skilled and motivated will struggle to make inroads unless they are part of the set, or are 'quoted' in certain circles.For me, the only realistic way of breaking away from this stranglehold is to take full control of the reins. Now, it pains me that the current independence model on the table doesn't go this far, but it is undoubtedly a huge step in the right direction. What is the alternative? Well, the status quo, and that's about it (forget all the devomax chat, it is condescending and disingenuous bluster at best). That's not an option for me. Time to take control, and make a better life for future generations of Scots. It would be great if it didn't have to be that way, but anyone who desires change, and believes that this can come about in the context of the current set-up is delusional in my view.

Hmm, maybe replace expunge with reconcile then.........

Unquestionably, it's all about London, that is a given in the UK

Whether you consider Westminster looks after and does it best for the Northern districts is up to the individual.

Democracy in action.........

[Guest TPAFKATS]

Is there any credible, believable answers that all the above wont happen if we are still part of the uk?

and what is it with you and all the Natsi shit, is no one allowed to have a differing opinion without being branded a natsi?

It's happened already, for example I read last week that scotch is already taxed at 79% despite Gideon wanting us to celebrate not adding to this last week. However, facts aren't part of the trolls agenda

[Guest TPAFKATS]

Latest figures show we built 1.5m cars and Commercial vehicles and 205m car engines in the UK last year many being exported

really 205,000,000 car engines built in the uk in one year? over 560,000 per day!

It's the classic case of continuing to spout the same lies and distortions so often that people remember them and start to belive they are true.

The labour conference last week was full of this same pish.

[Drew]

It's happened already, for example I read last week that scotch is already taxed at 79% despite Gideon wanting us to celebrate not adding to this last week. However, facts aren't part of the trolls agenda

Yup, had to laugh at the mainstream media dressing that decision up as great news for the industry. He's all heart when it comes to us jocks, is Georgie.

[Stuart Dickson]

I need to know where you got that figure from to answer all the questions.

And i see your making figures up again, 205million engines. not even close.

Not me making up figures. I directly quoted this article.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/best-british-manufacturing-industries-keeping-3183313

But yes a bit more investigation and it seems the Mirror reporter may have had a wee typo. 2.5m seems more likely Still I'm learning fast that if I leave you one little titbit to grasp onto you'll focus all your attention on that and all the other facts remain completely unchallenged and untouched. Others will notice this all too familiar Natsi tactic too. It won't get you much mileage as it simply highlights that the Yes Campaign is out of ideas and plodding along on a negative campaign unwilling to provide anything tangible in terms of credible figures.

http://www.smmt.co.uk/2013/01/uk-car-manufacturing-achieves-all-time-record-exports-in-2012/

The point remains the same. The UK together has an industrial diversity that is superb for the economy and as you can see it's not all based in the South East of England either. Sunderland's manufacturing base is absolutely booming - as is manufacturing throughout the UK and our export levels are superb right now. Split the union and you land up with a bastard state of a country desperately reliant on the oil and gas industry and basing all it's predictions on a woefully out of date and inept prediction that Alex Salmond came up with himself having completely ignored his "laureate" advisor's.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26712226

Edited March 25, 2014 by Stuart Dickson

[shull]

Has everbody in power stopped talking yet ?

There are highways needing smoothed while they bitch about each other.

Edited March 25, 2014 by shull

[salmonbuddie]

Naw! And that's the only time I'm saying that in this thread

[saintnextlifetime]

[saintnextlifetime]

Why try to expunge it, when it seems valid. There is a strong element of colonialism inherent in the relationship between London/SE of England and the rest of the UK. This flies in the face of the centre right political dogma of decentralisation, and therein lies the irony.

Scotland, in common with other 'regions' of the UK, has increasingly become a hostage to fortune in terms of the prevailing political, economic, and socio-economic climate in London and its satellite conurbations and affluent rural neighbouring areas.

You know things are becoming entrenched when Tories themselves express alarm at the number of former Etonians shuffling the halls of power. However, as much as Michael Gove and Baroness Warsi choose to publically wring their hands over this, it won't be changing anytime soon. As I've mentioned on this very thread on several occasions, those who hold the balance of power won't be surrendering it anytime soon, as they have far, far too much to lose.

There is another irony evident in this situation, and that pertains to the high ideals of a meritocracy (another Tory favourite). With an increasing concentration of privately educated, old-school-tie wearing politicians, CEOs, and lawyers etc., the glass ceiling becomes increasingly impenetrable. People who are highly skilled and motivated will struggle to make inroads unless they are part of the set, or are 'quoted' in certain circles.

For me, the only realistic way of breaking away from this stranglehold is to take full control of the reins. Now, it pains me that the current independence model on the table doesn't go this far, but it is undoubtedly a huge step in the right direction. What is the alternative? Well, the status quo, and that's about it (forget all the devomax chat, it is condescending and disingenuous bluster at best). That's not an option for me. Time to take control, and make a better life for future generations of Scots. It would be great if it didn't have to be that way, but anyone who desires change, and believes that this can come about in the context of the current set-up is delusional in my view.

I fail to see how in any sense you have full control of the reins whilst we persist in wishing to retain the pound?

Someone else is setting policy in terms of interest rates etc and there's not a thing you can do about it. That's the disconnect I cannot get my head round - whilst we would have full control in some areas you have no control in others and to me that's just not what's being advertised.

[salmonbuddie]

It's an interim measure, snlt, until we decide what suits us best. Historically it's what just about every nation has done when it's left the empire, albeit for varying lengths of time. It's the sensible thing to do, short term anyway, to avoid major disruption.

[Stuart Dickson]

It's an interim measure, snlt, until we decide what suits us best. Historically it's what just about every nation has done when it's left the empire, albeit for varying lengths of time. It's the sensible thing to do, short term anyway, to avoid major disruption.

Oh it's definitely sensible for an Independent Scotland to have a major power underwrite their debts for a bit - I just can't see what benefit there is to the rest of the UK in entertaining it and obviously all of the Westminster Parties are in unison on that one.

[Stuart Dickson]

Again to answer your questions i need to know where or how you came up with the 16% figure. Surely you didn't just think of a number times it by ten then add something to it.

Actually it should have been 18.5% but I gave you the benefit of the doubt. It is the percentage amount by which the Scottish Government would have to raise it's revenue just to have met last years spending levels. This is before you factor in the cost of those costly post referendum pledges that Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon have been making.

I see it's not just the fat pipefitter who's drawing my own conclusions either. Apparently "top economists" are heavily criticising the SNP's projections on oil prices and they are demanding that he revisit them or an Independent Scotland could find itself with an increasing budget deficit up to and way beyond the 2017-18 target that George Osbourne has set for the UK.

[Guest TPAFKATS]

Phew, you wouldnt want a budget deficit would you

Are these the targets that osbourne set in 2011 when he became chancellor, or the ones that he has revised ever since as he has increased borrowing and deficit every year since becoming chancellor.

[Guest TPAFKATS]

Actually it should have been 18.5% but I gave you the benefit of the doubt. It is the percentage amount by which the Scottish Government would have to raise it's revenue just to have met last years spending levels. This is before you factor in the cost of those costly post referendum pledges that Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon have been making.

I see it's not just the fat pipefitter who's drawing my own conclusions either. Apparently "top economists" are heavily criticising the SNP's projections on oil prices and they are demanding that he revisit them or an Independent Scotland could find itself with an increasing budget deficit up to and way beyond the 2017-18 target that George Osbourne has set for the UK.

How many personalities do you have??????

[Bud Bundy]

Actually it should have been 18.5% but I gave you the benefit of the doubt. It is the percentage amount by which the Scottish Government would have to raise it's revenue just to have met last years spending levels. This is before you factor in the cost of those costly post referendum pledges that Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon have been making.

I see it's not just the fat pipefitter who's drawing my own conclusions either. Apparently "top economists" are heavily criticising the SNP's projections on oil prices and they are demanding that he revisit them or an Independent Scotland could find itself with an increasing budget deficit up to and way beyond the 2017-18 target that George Osbourne has set for the UK.

What about whisky & water, Dear lard arse ? Eton boy's love, Wishaw w@nkers.

[Stuart Dickson]

Phew, you wouldnt want a budget deficit would you

Are these the targets that osbourne set in 2011 when he became chancellor, or the ones that he has revised ever since as he has increased borrowing and deficit every year since becoming chancellor.

Erm, Osbourne hasn't increased the deficit. Far from it.

In 2008 the UK budget deficit stood at 5.1% of GDP

In 2009 Labour increased it to 11.2% of GDP

In 2010 - the year Osbourne became Chancellor it fell to 10.0% of GDP

In 2011 it was 7.9%

In 2012 it was 6.2%

In 2013 it increased slightly to 6.9% of GDP

This year it's to be at 5.9%, and next year we're looking at below pre banking crisis levels of just 4.7% of GDP.

Figures taken from this source

http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/government-deficit_gov-dfct-table-en

Osbourne has achieved this whilst not cutting spending on healthcare, education or welfare; whilst increasing benefit payments particularly to pensioners; and whilst also cutting income tax by raising everyone's personal allowance and cutting the top rate of tax from 50% to 45%. Indeed the only area of the UK where there is an increased deficit this year is in Scotland where Alex Salmonds back of a fag packet predictions about Brent Crude Oil Prices have been shown to be woefully over optimistic. If only Salmond had actually listened to those "laureate" advisers he hired when they told him that $113 wasn't realistic.