shull Posted April 25, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 This Thread just proves that some Saints fans can be as boring and tedious as Brendan Rodgers. Zzzzzzzz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oaksoft Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Slartibartfast said: Your post explained nothing of the sort. I'm not the God of Numbers because there probably is no God. I indisputably proved I was correct in my post - at least it is indisputable to noncontentious people. We would only have to beat two teams, but which two? We could lose to any of the other 3 teams so there are 3 chances we could lose and one chance we could win (3 to 1, 1 in 4, 25%). Or to rephrase, there are 4 teams who could win and only one of them is us. It doesn't matter which 3. The fact is that each team essentially sees a 3 team league. Your entire premise of thinking about it as 4 teams is wrong bud. It is non-intuitive because 4 teams physically take part. Edited April 25, 2017 by oaksoft Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oaksoft Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 Just now, shull said: This Thread just proves that some Saints fans can be as boring and tedious as Brendan Rodgers. Zzzzzzzz You simply must break the tedium by creating another of your fascinating threads. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsidebud Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 Of course all this 1 in 3 or 1 in 4 debate is moot. The Mighty Mirren have a 1 in 1 chance of successfully negotiating the playoffs if thats where we end up![emoji3] COYS! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsidebud Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 Made a mess of an edit. Post deleted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlucifer Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Slartibartfast said: Your post explained nothing of the sort. I'm not the God of Numbers because there probably is no God. I indisputably proved I was correct in my post - at least it is indisputable to noncontentious people. We would only have to beat two teams, but which two? We could lose to any of the other 3 teams so there are 3 chances we could lose and one chance we could win (3 to 1, 1 in 4, 25%). Or to rephrase, there are 4 teams who could win and only one of them is us. We WOULD only have 2 chances to lose IF WE WER|E TO END UP IN THE PLAY OFFS . The team who play in the other match and lose are "ghost" opponents. It's ridiculous to count a team you cannot play as part of the equation. Edited April 25, 2017 by stlucifer To Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antrin Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, southsidebud said: Made a mess of an edit. Post deleted Aye, we've all been there. Except skidmark - he's happy to post shite. And leave the evidence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oaksoft Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, Slartibartfast said: Yes, but it is a different problem. In the round robin you could fail to win one of your "ties" and still win the competition in the other you have to win all tour ties to win the competition. Similar, but different. Its the same problem but different conditions. Would you want to compete in a league of 3 or a league of 4 where one team is promoted and chances are you would require at least 2 wins in the second scenario scenarios? In that second scenario you could win two games and draw the third and still fail to gain promotion. I would say that logic dictates that this CANNOT be of equal chance as the playoffs. The playoffs have much better probability because winning both guarantees success. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAFKA Jersey 2 Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 12 minutes ago, shull said: This Thread just proves that some Saints fans can be as boring and tedious as Brendan Rodgers. Zzzzzzzz Oh aye, as opposed to your fascinating tit for tat snorefests with faraway saint. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oaksoft Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, stlucifer said: We WOULD only have 2 chances to lose IF WE WER|E TO END UP IN THE PLAY OFFS . The team who play in the other match and lose are "ghost" opponents. It's ridiculous to count a team you cannot play as part of the equation. Exactly. That is why I called it a pseudo 3 team league. The answer is 1 in 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oaksoft Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Slartibartfast said: There is not a 3 team league though, there's not even a league. The way you are describing it means that the two losers in the first ties only see a two team league. Before a ball is kicked, you could only name 2 of your alleged 3 teams in our "league" The way it is structured we have a 1/2 chance of winning our first tie and a 1/2 chance of winning our second (if we win the first). 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4. The easy way to show you that you are wrong is to ask you what the chances for each of the other three teams are if our chance is 1 in 3. Put it this way, if there are 4 teams and they all have an equal chance then each one has a 25% chance. I think we are at an impasse unless I can find a way to convince you that from the perspective of each individlual team there are only two possible opponoents. You cannot include an opponent in these calculations where you have zero chance of playing them. The fact that you dont KNOW which will be your second opponent is irrelevant to you. That is only relevant to the team who plays them. You have also persuaded yourself that each match is 50:50 but I cant figure out how to show you this. It might be that the Monty Hall thing above can illustrate why. You end up with a 2:3 and a 1:3 for a combination of 1 as required rather than 1:2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAFKA Jersey 2 Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 21 minutes ago, Slartibartfast said: Your post explained nothing of the sort. I'm not the God of Numbers because there probably is no God. I indisputably proved I was correct in my post - at least it is indisputable to noncontentious people. We would only have to beat two teams, but which two? We could lose to any of the other 3 teams so there are 3 chances we could lose and one chance we could win (3 to 1, 1 in 4, 25%). Or to rephrase, there are 4 teams who could win and only one of them is us. How can there be three chances we could lose when we can only play two ties. There are 3 teams we could lose to, but not 3 chances we could lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oaksoft Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Slartibartfast said: Sorry oaky, that doesn't make any sense at all. There are no conditions to apply before a ball is kicked. There is. The condition is set by the league beforehand. In the case of the playoffs it means that no single team can play the other 3 teams in the playoffs. At most it is 2. To then include something with a probability of zero in a calculations is illogical. To progress I think you really need to show the flaw in this. Edited April 25, 2017 by oaksoft Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pozbaird Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 Jesus Fcuking Christ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oaksoft Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, TPAFKA Jersey 2 said: How can there be three chances we could lose when we can only play two ties. Bingo! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oaksoft Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 Just now, pozbaird said: Jesus Fcuking Christ. I appreciate we are discussing this in a match thread but can you guys not just scroll past this stuff? Just a suggestion c/o shull. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAFKA Jersey 2 Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 1 minute ago, pozbaird said: Jesus Fcuking Christ. Don't bring him into it or we'll be here even longer! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAFKA Jersey 2 Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 Slartibartfast could end all this by just admitting that he is wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pozbaird Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 Just now, oaksoft said: I appreciate we are discussing this in a match thread but can you guys not just scroll past this stuff? Just a suggestion c/o shull. I don't want to scroll past it. It's better than the telly now that Car Share is finished. I stand by my comment though - Jesus Fcuking Christ Almighty! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faraway saint Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, pozbaird said: Jesus Fcuking Christ. Aye, talking themselves into circles for something that matters not one jot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saintnextlifetime Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 I'm tempted to quote Drew in a situation like this . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAFKA Jersey 2 Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Slartibartfast said: Right, we can solve this by looking at one part at a time. There are four teams (A - D). Tell me what you think the odds are for each of the four teams. 1 in 3 Same as us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlucifer Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 6 minutes ago, Slartibartfast said: Right, we can solve this by looking at one part at a time. There are four teams (A - D). Tell me what you think the odds are for each of the four teams. 50-50 in each/any match they are involved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smcc Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 A lot of hot air is being spouted. There are 4 teams in with a chance of coming out on top. It matters not a jot how many games have to be played; the chance of winning will be the same whether they play each other once, twice or twenty times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pozbaird Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 7 minutes ago, saintnextlifetime said: I'm tempted to quote Drew in a situation like this . . Bring back the Wank Tank! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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