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5 hours ago, TPAFKATS said:

People or rather sheeple who think this situation is improving right now, are in for a shock.

Sadly, it looks like you were right.

Daily deaths in the UK have more than doubled since yesterday.

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20 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

You were as quick to jump in when daily deaths dropped from the previous day.

My point is, and was, that the predicted figures you were shouting about are next to impossible.

As I've said, time will tell. 

Just a reminder, you dismissed the Italian President of the Health Council because it didn't suit your calculations? :lol:

I'll go with him rather than you or TPTWAT, who'll be busy scraping around for another reason to have a go at the government. 

 

Edited by faraway saint

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If anybody wants a laugh go and read the first page of this thread and see the experts on here telling us it's all an overreaction.

The same ones who are still trying to score points over how many are dying while accusing others of trying to look good on a football forum.

The sort who had a party last weekend because they knew better than the experts.

 

Cunts the lot of them.

 

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Sadly, it looks like you were right.
Daily deaths in the UK have more than doubled since yesterday.
Looks like yesterday's figure was skewed by NHS England changing their reporting. Today caught back up with reality.

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1 hour ago, faraway saint said:

My point is, and was, that the predicted figures you were shouting about are next to impossible.

As I've said, time will tell. 

Just a reminder, you dismissed the Italian President of the Health Council because it didn't suit your calculations? :lol:

I'll go with him rather than you or TPTWAT, who'll be busy scraping around for another reason to have a go at the government. 

 

The point is that you will be quite happy to do something one day and then criticise others for doing the same thing a day later.

Some might call that hypocrisy. I call it bellendry.

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This is a problem every field of science faces but you can't just stop simply because you can't get complete accuracy.
If what you are after, as I am, is a quick qualitative feel for what is going on then you state your assumptions, run your model and interpret appropriately.
To be fair, I really couldn't have been clearer about that.
My favourite example of this is the very first attempt at modelling the electron density within atoms in the 1920s. Theses early models didn't even predict the formation of molecular bonding but those early models were still useful; for getting a feel for what was going on. Thomas, Fermi and Dirac are still famous today as a result of those models.
To this day, quantum mechanical calculations are performed using only a fraction of the number of variables on systems as small as things like the water molecule and dimers because you simply cannot get enough computational resources to perform the job. Calculations on drug receptors are even less accurate - most of them don't even use quantum mechanics other than perhaps at the very core of the receptor - a handful of atoms out of an entire receptor. Doesn't stop pharmaceuticals from using them intensely to predict good drug candidates.
The problem is that non-experts tend not to fully understand the value of computational models. They expect and demand way too much from them and throw the baby out with the bath water.
If your graphs/modelling was for the purpose of determining how to tackle the virus then, yes, you are correct, you shouldn't stop. If your graphs/modelling then led you to another better way of modelling then, again, you are correct.

In this case, neither of these apply and, also, there were already very similar (if not identical) graphs out there, you could just have linked to and, as I said, not wasted your time.

Besides that, the effort was wasted on here, you should have known that before you did it.

Just saying.

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Interesting...
Interesting however it seems everyone on twitter is using that to suit there own agenda. Including those who believe it's all fake.

A bit like when the government used the bits they liked from his original modelling and decided herd immunity was the way to beat this.

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5 hours ago, oaksoft said:

In a post criticising  "clowns on the internet who in their own tiny minds, think that they have become some sort of guiding light on the matter", can you lay out for us your expertise which allows you to make judgments on mathematical models? 

Or is it OK for you to have an opinion but not others?

We have a f**k of a lot of experts on mathematical modelling all of a sudden.

I'm just wondering whether we have a previously hidden and secret cache of computational experts on here or whether you're just as full of hot air as the people you are having a go at.

I have a PhD in it and a host of published articles in international journals so I understand how modelling works and what limits can be applied to their results. What's your background in all of this?

At least you recognise yourself.

Now we're getting somewhere.

And you're so angry that you can't even read properly.

Great meltdown by the way.:lol:

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3 hours ago, Slartibartfast said:

To be honest, you're wasting your time with the graphs. There are far too many unknown variables to get any real accuracy. All your graphs really showed was what would probably happen if the demographics of the whole population reflected the demographics of the group who had already tested positive and nothing happened to slow (or accelerate) the spread of the virus. Of course, neither of those things are likely.

 

This isn't a dig, just an observation.

 

I've read that before somewhere.:whistle

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On 3/25/2020 at 1:32 PM, W6er said:

Children, please! :lol: What's all this squabbling about? I'm sure it's pretty hard to accurately model the disease's spread, who knows what variables are at play. Unless I'm correct in my suspicions that this is a New World Order plot, it's safe to assume the measures taken are due to the deadly potential of this virus, and so I think it's reasonable to assume that at its worst there may well be thousands dying every day. Nobody wants that and let's pray it doesn't materialise. Why argue about it, and insult each other?

 

29 minutes ago, FTOF said:

I've read that before somewhere.:whistle

:whistle

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:whistle
Not exactly the same thing. What you said could have meant there were no other variables at play but that you just didn't know if there were or not.

Besides that, if you look back through the thread you can probably find several mentions in a similar vein, I'm sure oaky even mentioned something similar himself in a caveat.

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1 minute ago, Slartibartfast said:

Not exactly the same thing. What you said could have meant there were no other variables at play but that you just didn't know if there were or not.

Besides that, if you look back through the thread you can probably find several mentions in a similar vein, I'm sure oaky even mentioned something similar himself in a caveat.

Just for the record, I assumed everybody would take for granted the existence of variables. I believe Japan hasn't suffered anywhere near the casualties of other countries despite Tokyo being one of the world's largest and most densely packed cities, which implies a variable. The climates are variable around the world, as are hygiene standards, government policy, health services, etc, etc.

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1 hour ago, FTOF said:

At least you recognise yourself.

Now we're getting somewhere.

And you're so angry that you can't even read properly.

Great meltdown by the way.:lol:

So you have no background in this stuff at all. :lol:

I thought as much. Maybe you should keep your thoughts to yourself if that's the case.

Edited by oaksoft

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1 hour ago, Slartibartfast said:

If your graphs/modelling was for the purpose of determining how to tackle the virus then, yes, you are correct, you shouldn't stop. If your graphs/modelling then led you to another better way of modelling then, again, you are correct.

In this case, neither of these apply and, also, there were already very similar (if not identical) graphs out there, you could just have linked to and, as I said, not wasted your time.

Besides that, the effort was wasted on here, you should have known that before you did it.

Just saying.

Jeez, I spent 5 minutes collating and constructing a quick and dirty graph to give people a feel for where we might end up in a few weeks if things don't dramatically change. It was a wee bit of DIY fun for someone who has enjoyed doing this professionally for years. People build sheds every week without having to justify doing so because there are experts out there offering professional shed building services. What's the fuss here?

I did it freely and posted it because nobody else was posting it and I thought it might be interesting for some. End of story.

I am VERY sorry that I've not produced a fully professional service covering every single possible variable with modelling showing accuracy of 100% and will promise to do better next time.

f**king hell what is wrong with you people this week? :lol:

Edited by oaksoft

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1 minute ago, oaksoft said:

Jeez, I spent 5 minutes collating and constructing a quick and dirty graph to give people a feel for where we might end up in a few weeks if things don't dramatically change. It was a wee bit of DIY fun for someone who has enjoyed doing this professionally for years. People build sheds every week without having to justify doing so because there are experts out there offering professional shed building services. What's the fuss here?

I did it freely and posted it because nobody else was posting it and I thought it might be interesting for some. End of story.

I am VERY sorry that I've not produced a fully professional service covering every single possible variable with modelling showing accuracy of 100% and will promise to do better next time.

f**king hell what is wrong with you people this week? :lol:

Generally, most arguments come down to people's egos. 

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7 minutes ago, W6er said:

Generally, most arguments come down to people's egos. 

I must admit that I'm not used to giving away something for free and then receiving so much criticism for doing it. :D

Use it, don't use it. It's up to people to decide for themselves but if you (third party) don't like it, at least have the courtesy of shutting the f**k up about it given that it didn't cost you anything. That would be my advice. Honestly, you'd think I had unleashed the spawn of Satan himself. :lol:

I think this lock-down is messing with people's heads. :lol:

Edited by oaksoft

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1 minute ago, oaksoft said:

I must admit that I'm not used to giving away something for free and then receiving so much criticism for doing it. :D

Use it, don't use it. It's up to people to decide for themselves but if you (third party) don't like it, at least have the courtesy of shutting the f**k up about it given that it didn't cost you anything. That would be my advice.

I think this lock-down is messing with people's heads. :lol:

Are you familiar with the expression 'opinions are like arseholes, everybody's got one'? Usually I just ignore those opinions that I don't like. Stupid and ignorant people will be punished for their stupidity and ignorance, they're worthy of pity rather than scorn. That's not aimed at anybody in particular on here incidentally, but rather I think it's silly to get offended or upset by moronic opinions. 

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1 hour ago, W6er said:

Are you familiar with the expression 'opinions are like arseholes, everybody's got one'? Usually I just ignore those opinions that I don't like. Stupid and ignorant people will be punished for their stupidity and ignorance, they're worthy of pity rather than scorn. That's not aimed at anybody in particular on here incidentally, but rather I think it's silly to get offended or upset by moronic opinions. 

I am neither offended nor upset. Please don't put words in my mouth.

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Anyway, back to covid predictions. Jeremy Vine is apparently tweeting that the Imperial College team is predicting that the number of daily deaths will peak on 5th April at around 260 deaths.

I must say that given we are at 115, this feels very optimistic but I hope they are correct.

 

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Just for the record, I assumed everybody would take for granted the existence of variables. I believe Japan hasn't suffered anywhere near the casualties of other countries despite Tokyo being one of the world's largest and most densely packed cities, which implies a variable. The climates are variable around the world, as are hygiene standards, government policy, health services, etc, etc.

So not exactly the same thing then, as I said.
Jeez, I spent 5 minutes collating and constructing a quick and dirty graph to give people a feel for where we might end up in a few weeks if things don't dramatically change. It was a wee bit of DIY fun for someone who has enjoyed doing this professionally for years. People build sheds every week without having to justify doing so because there are experts out there offering professional shed building services. What's the fuss here?
I did it freely and posted it because nobody else was posting it and I thought it might be interesting for some. End of story.
I am VERY sorry that I've not produced a fully professional service covering every single possible variable with modelling showing accuracy of 100% and will promise to do better next time.
f**king hell what is wrong with you people this week? 
As I previously said, it wasn't a dig, it was just an observation.

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