Bud the Baker Posted April 11, 2014 Report Share Posted April 11, 2014 Who knows - probably one point more than our nearest rivals as our GD is poor compared to our rivals. I don't think we've seen the last of 11th place for this season - the important thing will be how we react if/when this happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faraway saint Posted April 11, 2014 Report Share Posted April 11, 2014 Who knows - probably one point more than our nearest rivals as our GD is poor compared to our rivals. I don't think we've seen the last of 11th place for this season - the important thing will be how we react if/when this happens. I agree there's a few twists and turns to go before anything is decided this season. IF we beat Hibs that could give us confidence and breathing space for the next game against Partick. Exciting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted April 11, 2014 Report Share Posted April 11, 2014 Who knows - probably one point more than our nearest rivals as our GD is poor compared to our rivals. . Is it? We have the same GD as Partick Thistle. Also, we're only 3 worse than County. A 2-0 win for us at home to County is a 4 goal swing so 3 goals isn't that big a gap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bud the Baker Posted April 11, 2014 Report Share Posted April 11, 2014 Is it? We have the same GD as Partick Thistle. Also, we're only 3 worse than County. A 2-0 win for us at home to County is a 4 goal swing so 3 goals isn't that big a gap. Yeah but Thistle are a point behind us so if they make that up by virtue of a draw for them and a defeat for us their GD will improve in comparison to ours. County are level with us on points now with a better GD of 3 if they're still level in 5 games they'll still likely be ahead of us on GD as any swing gained by a victory in the H2H game will be cancelled by other results. Killie & Hibs are 5 & 6 goals better off with only 5 games - again that's significant in comparison to the points differential IMO. Any big wins/defeats will obviously change the picture but I still reckon we'll probably have to finish a point above to be safe. Getting lucky once seems to have gone to your head! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Froggie Posted April 11, 2014 Report Share Posted April 11, 2014 Realistically, now that automatic relegation has been evaded, no further points are required and given that we never win two games in a row I expect a defeat from Hibs who are desperate for points. Seems strange that a lucky last minute brace against Motherwell has changed outlooks about where we will finish. May I remind everyone that Lennon is still in charge so it would be wise to budget for the play offs. Nice to see the board offering a whole tenner off the £60 to see three remaining home games, lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorizaar Posted April 11, 2014 Report Share Posted April 11, 2014 No real point in predicting how many points or wins we need as it could change every week and will depend on how many teams are below us and what the fixtures are so points are just a small part of it. As it stands this week, the only fact is that to avoid the play offs, all we need to do us match Thistles results. Drawing with them and we both lose all other games is the only minimum requirement at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pod Posted April 11, 2014 Report Share Posted April 11, 2014 Realistically, now that automatic relegation has been evaded, no further points are required and given that we never win two games in a row I expect a defeat from Hibs who are desperate for points. Seems strange that a lucky last minute brace against Motherwell has changed outlooks about where we will finish. May I remind everyone that Lennon is still in charge so it would be wise to budget for the play offs. Nice to see the board offering a whole tenner off the £60 to see three remaining home games, lol. Only spend it in the pie shop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibbles old paperboy Posted April 16, 2014 Report Share Posted April 16, 2014 I think we have come through a rough patch where we played quite well but lost to Dundee United, Celtic etc and then were really poor against St Johnstone. We were unlucky with the refereeing decisions at Tannadice costing us 3 points there, and then we fought back from a goal down to get a draw in Inverness and getting a jammy refereeing decision in our favour to help us beat Motherwell. Teale being available has been a help, McLean is playing well again too.We are hitting form at the most crucial stage of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desnold Posted April 22, 2014 Report Share Posted April 22, 2014 Going by yesterdays result in Edinburgh, maybe Hearts will do us a favour and pick up points against everybody in the bottom half bar us as we go on a season ending unbeaten run and finish comfortably in 8th or 9th slot. COYS It's all going to plan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faraway saint Posted April 22, 2014 Report Share Posted April 22, 2014 Realistically, now that automatic relegation has been evaded, no further points are required and given that we never win two games in a row I expect a defeat from Hibs who are desperate for points. Seems strange that a lucky last minute brace against Motherwell has changed outlooks about where we will finish. May I remind everyone that Lennon is still in charge so it would be wise to budget for the play offs. Nice to see the board offering a whole tenner off the £60 to see three remaining home games, lol. You're funny. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TediousTom Posted April 22, 2014 Report Share Posted April 22, 2014 To return this very forum thread to the very subject that it was initially intended to disuss I shall step forward, take the mantle if you will and make a prediction as to the number of points our fine team require to reach in the SPFL relegation group, or bottom six if you will, in order to avoid the contest that will be known as the relegation play-off. In most season's where only one team drops through the trap door of relegation it is commonly accepted that a points total of around 34 points is (in most cases) sufficient to "avoid the drop". This season however such a points total is unlikely to be sufficient as we have the added excitement of the "play off" as already discussed and as is common knowledge. As such one may assume that 34 points is unlikely to result in the relaxation that safety will provide, not at all. Our beloved team currently have 34 points, as a prediction I would wager that a further six points is entirely reasonable to expect and once our beloved team achieve the 40 point mark I predict that safety will be achieved. 34 points will not be enough 37 points could be enough 40 points will be enough Ladies and Gentlemen of the forum, I present you with a prediction......40 points! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted April 25, 2014 Report Share Posted April 25, 2014 37 will be enough, trust me ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
E=Mc2 Posted April 25, 2014 Report Share Posted April 25, 2014 37 will be enough, trust me ;) I would worry about our goal difference if we only had 37. If we were to only achieve 37 I would want those three points to come from a 3 - 0 win over Ross County. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desnold Posted April 25, 2014 Report Share Posted April 25, 2014 We'll beat Thistle tonight though so when we beat Ross County (Jim scoring the winner to get it up Adams) we'll have the forty and can relax. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
E=Mc2 Posted April 27, 2014 Report Share Posted April 27, 2014 (edited) Double post. Edited April 27, 2014 by E=Mc2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
E=Mc2 Posted April 27, 2014 Report Share Posted April 27, 2014 I've noticed that BT Sport are planning a game on Saturday 10th May with a 7.45pm kick off. All 3 of the bottom 6 games are scheduled to kick off at 12.15pm They must be hoping that one of the last games is a play off position decider. But if all the teams are in the mix then having a later game would be an advantage for those taking part. Maybe they'll move all the games to 7.45pm and move between the games as the fates sway back and forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeilPar72 Posted April 27, 2014 Report Share Posted April 27, 2014 I've noticed that BT Sport are planning a game on Saturday 10th May with a 7.45pm kick off. All 3 of the bottom 6 games are scheduled to kick off at 12.15pm They must be hoping that one of the last games is a play off position decider. But if all the teams are in the mix then having a later game would be an advantage for those taking part. Maybe they'll move all the games to 7.45pm and move between the games as the fates sway back and forward. It's a strange one that. As surely tickets will already be on sale for the games advertised for 12.15. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elvis Posted April 27, 2014 Report Share Posted April 27, 2014 It might be one of the play off games in championship Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bud the Baker Posted April 27, 2014 Report Share Posted April 27, 2014 Was dreading a Hibs win which would have put them reasonably safe and maybe with not much appetite for their 3 remaining games against Thistle, County & Killie but now they'll have to go into these games as genuine relegation candidates. Seventh place and with three games to go it's in our own hands as to whether we stay up or not! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smcc Posted April 27, 2014 Report Share Posted April 27, 2014 (edited) Saturday 10th May Sat 10th May TBC Scottish Premiership 12:15 BT Sport 1 / BT Sport 1 HD Sat 10th May Inter Milan v Lazio Serie A 19:45 BT Sport 1 / BT Sport 1 HD Sat 10th May TBC Ligue 1 20:00 BT Sport 2 / BT Sport 2 HD Edited April 27, 2014 by smcc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted April 27, 2014 Report Share Posted April 27, 2014 (edited) ' After Hibs 1-2 Hearts- headline is that 39 points is now totally safe, 38 as good as. % of time teams finished 11th (10,000 sims) St Mirren- 10.7% Hibs- 19.8% County- 20.3% Thistle- 21.1% Killie- 28.1% Average points for 10th- 36.8 Average points for 11th- 35.1 % of time each points total safe 35- 32% safe (up 4%) 36- 65% safe (up 7%) 37- 85% safe (up 5%) 38- 98.8% safe (up 1.7%) 39- 100% safe ' From Thistle fan on PNB. Not surprisingly, we are comfortably in the best position in terms of avoiding 11th out the bottom 5. That table generates random results aswell, so doesn't take into account our good form or the fact 2 of our last 3 are at home. Win at the weekend and we are 98.8% safe Edited April 27, 2014 by Lex Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SelkirkSaint Posted April 27, 2014 Report Share Posted April 27, 2014 Win on Saturday and we're surely safe, lose and and we could be back into 11th place. How boring would it be if we were already safe in 7th? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorizaar Posted April 27, 2014 Report Share Posted April 27, 2014 Hard to work out for certain on a tired Sunday afternoon, but if we win on Saturday and Kilmarnock lose, would it be impossible for all four teams to overtake us? Perhaps a computer boffin could confirm this or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elvis Posted April 27, 2014 Report Share Posted April 27, 2014 No we could still get overtaken by them all it would be a 5point gap between 7th and 11th with two games to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SelkirkSaint Posted April 27, 2014 Report Share Posted April 27, 2014 Hard to work out for certain on a tired Sunday afternoon, but if we win on Saturday and Kilmarnock lose, would it be impossible for all four teams to overtake us? Perhaps a computer boffin could confirm this or not. I think we could still be overtaken on 38 points by all the teams but it would have to be on goal difference. If we draw the next two games and get 37 points then again we could only finish in 11th on goal difference. Feel free to prove me wrong, my head's spinning a wee bit from trying to work out the different combinations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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