Thorizaar Posted April 27, 2014 Report Share Posted April 27, 2014 (edited) I think we could still be overtaken on 38 points by all the teams but it would have to be on goal difference. If we draw the next two games and get 37 points then again we could only finish in 11th on goal difference. Feel free to prove me wrong, my head's spinning a wee bit from trying to work out the different combinations. Head was spinning too but think there is a bizarre scenario of results that could see that. Kilmarnock would need to win two and each other team would require at least a win and a draw in the last two games? Edited April 27, 2014 by Thorizaar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drew Posted April 27, 2014 Report Share Posted April 27, 2014 No we could still get overtaken by them all it would be a 5point gap between 7th and 11th with two games to go. Whit? They have to play each other, so they couldn't all get 6 points from the last two matches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faraway saint Posted April 27, 2014 Report Share Posted April 27, 2014 Whit? They have to play each other, so they couldn't all get 6 points from the last two matches. Beat me to it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SelkirkSaint Posted April 27, 2014 Report Share Posted April 27, 2014 (edited) Thistle, County and Hibs have all to play each other. If we beat County then it comes down to a combination of one win, one loss and one draw for the three of them. Leaving 4 teams on 38 points. Killie win 2 and get 39. Hearts beat us and lose their other games. If we draw against County and Killie then they could finish on 37 points with us. Again this involves other draws, with again 4 teams finishing on the same points.. Without the draw, a team would finish on 36 points. Edited April 27, 2014 by SelkirkSaint Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drew Posted April 27, 2014 Report Share Posted April 27, 2014 I hadn't realised how tight the goal difference is between the 5 clubs. Only 2 in it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saintargyll Posted April 27, 2014 Report Share Posted April 27, 2014 if we win and killie lose then we are 5 pts clear with 2 games to go simples Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingboy Posted April 27, 2014 Report Share Posted April 27, 2014 Head was spinning too but think there is a bizarre scenario of results that could see that. Kilmarnock would need to win two and each other team would require at least a win and a draw in the last two games? It is a bit of a head spin but I think I've cracked it. We will be safe next weekend if we win, Hearts beat Killie and Thistle win at Hibs. Killie would need to beat us and Hibs in their last 2 games to catch us which would mean Hibs couldn't also catch us. Even if Thistle don't beat Hibs it would take an almost exact set of results to see us finish 11th on goal difference if we beat County and Hearts beat Killie so we would be 99.9% safe. For the anoraks like myself those results would need to be; Killie beat us and Hibs Thistle beat Hearts Hearts beat us Hibs take exactly 4 points from their matches v Thistle and County County take exactly 4 points from their matches v Hibs and Thistle Thistle take exactly 1 point from their matches v Hibs and County My head is still spinning so if anyone spots a mistake please point it out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faraway saint Posted April 27, 2014 Report Share Posted April 27, 2014 It is a bit of a head spin but I think I've cracked it. We will be safe next weekend if we win, Hearts beat Killie and Thistle win at Hibs. Killie would need to beat us and Hibs in their last 2 games to catch us which would mean Hibs couldn't also catch us. Even if Thistle don't beat Hibs it would take an almost exact set of results to see us finish 11th on goal difference if we beat County and Hearts beat Killie so we would be 99.9% safe. For the anoraks like myself those results would need to be; Killie beat us and Hibs Thistle beat Hearts Hearts beat us Hibs take exactly 4 points from their matches v Thistle and County County take exactly 4 points from their matches v Hibs and Thistle Thistle take exactly 1 point from their matches v Hibs and County My head is still spinning so if anyone spots a mistake please point it out. I applaud your effort. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingboy Posted April 27, 2014 Report Share Posted April 27, 2014 (edited) Re the above, I now think we'd be safe with a victory for us, Hearts and anything but a draw at Easter Road. If Hibs beat Thistle the Jags would need to beat Hearts and draw with County to get to 38 points. That would mean that Hibs and County couldn't both get to 38 points as County would need a win over Hibs and Hibs would need a draw. I'm going to stop thinking about this now. Edited April 27, 2014 by bingboy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whydowebother Posted April 27, 2014 Report Share Posted April 27, 2014 It is a bit of a head spin but I think I've cracked it. We will be safe next weekend if we win, Hearts beat Killie and Thistle win at Hibs. Killie would need to beat us and Hibs in their last 2 games to catch us which would mean Hibs couldn't also catch us. Even if Thistle don't beat Hibs it would take an almost exact set of results to see us finish 11th on goal difference if we beat County and Hearts beat Killie so we would be 99.9% safe. For the anoraks like myself those results would need to be; Killie beat us and Hibs Thistle beat Hearts Hearts beat us Hibs take exactly 4 points from their matches v Thistle and County County take exactly 4 points from their matches v Hibs and Thistle Thistle take exactly 1 point from their matches v Hibs and County My head is still spinning so if anyone spots a mistake please point it out. The only mistake I noticed , was the whole thing We will not be finishing 11th . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingboy Posted April 27, 2014 Report Share Posted April 27, 2014 The only mistake I noticed , was the whole thing We will not be finishing 11th . I agree. This is just about how we can be sure of not finishing 11th by next weekend, rather than having to wait any longer for confirmation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SelkirkSaint Posted April 27, 2014 Report Share Posted April 27, 2014 Thistle, County and Hibs have all to play each other. If we beat County then it comes down to a combination of one win, one loss and one draw for the three of them. Leaving 4 teams on 38 points. Killie win 2 and get 39. Hearts beat us and lose their other games. As above. We win and Killie lose and we can only be overtaken on 38 points on goal difference if the above happens. Strangely, get 38 points via 3 draws and we're safe. The combinations that both County and Killie would need to catch up after drawing with us would mean another team dropping points. ( I think.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luther G. Presley Posted April 27, 2014 Report Share Posted April 27, 2014 Every other team in the play off mix would love to be in our position, sitting in 7th place with 2 of our remaining 3 games at home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desnold Posted April 27, 2014 Report Share Posted April 27, 2014 Who cares as long as we don't get pumped in the next three matches we are safe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigjerseybuddie Posted April 27, 2014 Report Share Posted April 27, 2014 Thanks to those who worked out all the possible permutations. I'm sure there's one more that only St Mirren could find to put us all in a psychiatric ward mumbling about percentages and if they beat them then draw with them then they beat them and them draw with them and they beat they we'll be safe. Is it Saturday yet? Nurse!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leicester Saint Posted April 27, 2014 Report Share Posted April 27, 2014 Something very very very important in all of this. More important than any permutations of results, or 'ifs', 'ands', and 'buts'. We just need to make sure we beat Ross County on Saturday. That's all we can control, all that we can influence. Put every effort into winning this game, and let everything else take care of itself. A defeat, or even a draw, and suddenly we're back in the shit. So let's not fret too much about how many points are required just yet. Let's just win our next game. That's all that really matters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted April 28, 2014 Report Share Posted April 28, 2014 The Hibs v Thistle game is irrelevant. If we win on Saturday and Killie lose, we are 100% safe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
E=Mc2 Posted April 28, 2014 Report Share Posted April 28, 2014 If the last 3 rounds of games between the bottom 6 were all to be draws, except Hearts beat us in the last game, only Kilmarnock by one point would not be above us in the league. Of course Hearts would still be at the bottom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soctty Posted April 28, 2014 Report Share Posted April 28, 2014 38 points will see us safe. Win on Saturday and we're staying up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dirty Sanchez Posted April 28, 2014 Report Share Posted April 28, 2014 The Hibs v Thistle game is irrelevant. If we win on Saturday and Killie lose, we are 100% safe. This is correct. You can take our word for it, or you can view my next post where I'll show my working. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
div Posted April 28, 2014 Report Share Posted April 28, 2014 Ifs, but and maybes. Only thing that matters is that we keep getting points. Win our last three games and we will finish 7th which would be a big boost to our budget for next season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dirty Sanchez Posted April 28, 2014 Report Share Posted April 28, 2014 If we win and Killie lose at Tynecastle, Killie can only catch us by winning their last two games. With that in mind, looking at Hibs v Thistle: If Thistle win, both Hibs and Killie can't catch us. Killie have no choice but to win out, and if they did, Hibs could only get 37 points. If Hibs win, they would still need a point from their game with Ross County to catch us on goal difference (assuming that Hibs are going to lose to Killie, which they need to for Killie to catch us). If Hibs take any more than a point from Dingwall, it means that Ross County can't catch us. If Ross County get the point from Hibs, it means they'll then have to beat Thistle, which means that Thistle couldn't catch us. If Hibs v Thistle is a draw (assuming Hibs lose to Killie), Hibs could only go above us on goal difference by beating Ross County, which means that Ross County couldn't catch us. Simple Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SelkirkSaint Posted April 28, 2014 Report Share Posted April 28, 2014 I'll go with that. Hadn't allowed for the Hibs V Killie match that Killie would need to win. Good to know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Svard svard Posted April 28, 2014 Report Share Posted April 28, 2014 Ifs, but and maybes. Only thing that matters is that we keep getting points. Win our last three games and we will finish 7th which would be a big boost to our budget for next season. Again ifs????????????????If we have new owners ... If we have a new manager... If we avoid relegation???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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