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faraway saint
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Latest from EuroMOMO

EuroMOMO is a European mortality monitoring activity, aiming to detect and measure excess deaths related to seasonal influenza, pandemics and other public health threats.

Graph shows excess mortality since 2017.

I’ll explain what it shows as I know folk struggle, especially Professor Walter @oaksoft Mitty, the pretend scientist.

In the winter of 2017/18 we had a bad flu season with higher than normal mortality.

In the winters of 2018/19 and 2019/2020 there was very light winter mortality.

Covid came along in the spring of 2020 and we had an epidemic with large excess mortality. This was exacerbated by the fact that we’d had light mortality in the previous 2 winters meaning there were a lot of elderly and vulnerable people. 
 

No second wave in the winter of 2020/21. Mortality far lower than 2017/18 despite the collateral deaths caused by lockdown. Excess mortality is the gold standard for measuring an epidemic. 

A7BB3C09-C00D-4DDB-B4A0-6D6D8F8B54B6.jpeg

Edited by Sue Denim
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2 minutes ago, faraway saint said:

My view, no agenda, is this would be a nightmare to manage if it was a free for all, not to mention the cost.

No source, just my opinion. 

Universal Benefits are easier to administer than Means Tested ones and presumably you'd need a dated certificate to qualify, as for the cost I heard an "expert" on Newsnight last week arguing that it would pay for itself in reduced transmission - just sayin' like...

Prob'ly be a pisser for those that have already had the disease - I can foresee mucho grumbling if it does happen and complications like whether lateral flow tests would be considered accurate enough but with the country in LockdownLite and still running with extremely high figures for cases, hospitalisations and deaths I'd say it's the better option.

*********************

Longer term if we're to come out of lockdown in Spring we need to do as much as possible during this edition - I would hope a combination of Lockdown, Vaccinations and the better weather to arrive would see restrictions being reduced gradually - once the end of the current Scottish lockdown is reached mid-February I would hope any further extensions are no longer than two weeks in duration.

Once it became clear we'd lost control of the situation last autumn Jan-Mar 2021 were always likely to be the worst months but the lockdown shouldn't be allowed to drift into becoming a neverending story.

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This is the U.K. plan for a pandemic based on WHO advice:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/213717/dh_131040.pdf
 

The envisaged death toll from the hypothetical pandemic (assumed to be flu but which allowed for the possibility that it might be something similar to SARS) is given as 210,000-315,000. This was assumed to occur in as little as 15 weeks with perhaps half the deaths, up to 158,000, in just three weeks. 
 

Some highlights:

The expectation must be that the virus will inevitably spread and that any local measures taken to disrupt or reduce the spread are likely to have very limited or partial success at a national level and cannot be relied on as a way to ‘buy time’.

It will not be possible to stop the spread of, or to eradicate, either in the country of origin or in the UK, as it will spread too rapidly and too widely.
 

Although there is a perception that the wearing of facemasks by the public in the community and household setting may be beneficial, there is in fact very little evidence of widespread benefit from their use in this setting.
 

There are no plans to attempt to close borders in the event of an influenza pandemic.

Even a 99.9% travel restriction might delay a pandemic wave by only two months. During 2009 it became clear that the pandemic virus had already spread widely before international authorities were alerted, suggesting that in any case the point of pandemic emergence had been missed by several weeks. 
 

There is very limited evidence that restrictions on mass gatherings will have any significant effect
 

There is also a lack of scientific evidence on the impact of internal travel restrictions on transmission and attempts to impose such restrictions would have wide-reaching implications for business and welfare.
 

During a pandemic, the Government will encourage those who are well to carry on with their normal daily lives for as long and as far as that is possible, whilst taking basic precautions to protect themselves from infection and lessen the risk of spreading influenza to others
 

The UK Government does not plan to close borders, stop mass gatherings or impose controls on public transport during any pandemic. 

 

Edited by Sue Denim
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Looking at the actual U.K. plan for a pandemic it’s clear that every single measure the government introduced goes against the plan and that they didn’t believe that any of these measures would work.

Everything the government has done has been for show and has caused thousands of collateral deaths and ruined the economy.
 

All on the back of pressure from the middle class left.

 

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5 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

Looking at the actual U.K. plan for a pandemic it’s clear that every single measure the government introduced goes against the plan and that they didn’t believe that any of these measures would work.

Everything the government has done has been for show and has caused thousands of collateral deaths and ruined the economy.
 

All on the back of pressure from the middle class left.

 

As the Government jettisoned all attempt to fund the health service and prepared it for selling off to Private companies and friends at home and abroad, that UK plan was abandoned, jettisoned, thrown overboard - not by a middle class left but by yet another right-wing fascist venal Tory government.

 

It's a shame to see you are no longer inhabiting the same planet as sensible people.

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FWIW, the new Biden/Harris government in US has just published THEIR strategy for dealing with the pandemic now that their fruit-loop president has been banished back to the zany boondocks.

Back home, The Buffoon and his cronies have never admitted to having a strategy, a plan...  a f**kin clue about what should be done for the people of the UK.

Maybe they should borrow some of those ideas from vaguely lefty Yankee politicians? 

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57 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

From the NRS

75% of all the excess deaths in Scotland in 2020 occurred in the 7 week period from 30th March to 11th May

That’s when the *actual* epidemic occurred.

Lockdown * increased* the death toll

 

 But you said the NRS reported that there were NO excess deaths.

Make up your mind which lie you want to tell.

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1 minute ago, Sue Denim said:

The fact that @oaksoft doesn’t understand the difference between a single week and a whole year puts his mental capacity into perspective.

Honestly, I don't think even you have the slightest idea what point you are trying to make with all this bullshit you are posting. 🤣

Do you not have a job to get to? Or are they paying you for the time you spend faking graphs and tables in Photoshop? 🤣

And if you're doing all this in your spare time, don't you have a life? At all?

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4 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

🤣

 

On 1/20/2021 at 7:13 PM, Sue Denim said:

Latest weekly mortality figures out today from the NRS

 

That’s you tripled down on your error now Walter.

Do you want me to explain the difference between weekly and annual again?

The gift that keeps giving 😂

Edited by Sue Denim
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1 hour ago, Sue Denim said:

 

That’s you tripled down on your error now Walter.

Do you want me to explain the difference between weekly and annual again?

The gift that keeps giving 😂

To be honest, I think you are wasting time posting any of this faked up nonsense but it's your time to spend as you see fit.

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Just now, faraway saint said:

Possibly, people will do anything, as the amount of fcukwits that continually do as they like. 

If it's given to low paid folk, and is significantly more than they would normally receive, then some folk will definitely try to contract it. Essentially the government will be rewarding them for contracting it. What is the self-isolation period? Ten days? Fifty quid a day is a lot of money for some folk.

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15 hours ago, Sue Denim said:

Nicola Sturgeon caught breaking her own lockdown rules yet again

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/nicola-sturgeons-official-residence-decorated-23363848

I’ll be following Nicola’s lead and going round to my in laws for a bevvy tomorrow night as per usual for a Saturday night 👍🍺🍺🍺

 

14D95053-D207-400A-AFB4-62F018E0FC59.jpeg

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